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Monthly Archives: July 2013

Performance Review of June 2013

The month of June was a busy month, I did 9 trades and two options.

I lost on two trades and nearly loss big time on the EURUSD call option but managed to recover and actually made a profit.  You will recall that the two month EURUSD call option had a breakeven of 1.3175 and expiration on 28 June 2013.  I squared at 1.3268 and it hit a high of 1.3365 just before expiration.

The yum yum trade was the 2 week USDJPY call option.  I just felt the JPY strengthened too much too quickly and a significant correction was going to happen.  So I bought a call option at 94.15 with a breakeven at 95.86 and I bought back the option at 97.50 for a nice profit of 16.8%.

So for the month of June, I am up 33.3% in absolute returns.  So far, YTD trading profits in absolute is 136.7% with this month’s trading profits, it brings the absolute returns year to date to 170%.

2 week USDJPY Call Option executed on 13 June 2013, expiring 28 June and squared on 21 June 2013

I bought a 2 week call option on the USDJPY at the strike of 94.15 and breakeven of 95.86, that is, 1.71bps for the cost of the premium which is pretty expensive as volatility was high.  However, my technical analysis plus the news out of Japan and Abenomics, I was confident that the yen would weaken.

I bought back the option on the last day at 0.9750 for a nice trading profit of 16.8%.

Trade: Short AUDUSD at 0.9275 and squared at 0.9260 on 28 June 2013

I saw another quick opportunity based on technical analysis and shorted the AUDUSD at 0.9275 and squared at 0.9260.

Trade: Long AUDUSD at 0.9233 and squared at 0.9260 on 28 June 2013

Ok, time to update the last two trades I did in June.  On 28 June 2013, Long AUDUSD at 0.9233 and squared at 0.9260.

Sneaky USD………..the night of Tuesday, 2 July 2013

The USD isn’t waiting for the nonfarm payroll numbers this friday, it has already staged a move against the majors.

USD moved against the EUR at 1am, dropped by 89bps.

USD moved against the GBP at 7:15pm, dropped 75bps.

USD  moved against the JPY at 8:30pm, dropped by 89bps

USD moved against the AUD at 6;45pm, dropped by 29bps

So, it appears that the AUD has been the most resilient against the onslaught of the USD.  Maybe the market if waiting for Governor Steven’s speech later this morning to get a confirmation of the RBA statement published earlier yesterday.  You will recall; RBA held rates at 2.75%, felt that the drop in the AUD is helping the economy, feels that the economy is continuing to adjust to a different business model and less reliant on mining and resources, felt that housing is holding steady, felt that borrowing is coming back, and felt that there could be more room for currency to weaken which would help the economy