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Tag Archives: forex

FOMC is fixated on inflation and jobs creation and early this evening was the US; Retail Sales and CPI, which I felt would be a highly volatile event data.

So at about 8:14pm, I decided to put on my straddle on the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –

EURUSD

Stop if Offered at 1.1170, Spot at 1.1202, Stop if Bid at 1.1230

USDJPY

Stop if Offered 109.90, Spot at 110.28, Stop if Bid at 110.58

SLs all established at 30bps away.

As it turned out CPI and Retail Sales bombed!

Both my EURUSD and USDJPY were triggered.

I followed the market till about 11pm and decided to square off my positions as follows: –

EURUSD squared at 1.1276

USDJPY squared at 108.97

Trading profit; USDJPY = 0.93yen and EURUSD = 46bps

Not bad, if I may say so myself.

Not much noise coming up to this even, but decided to put in a straddle trade with the following details: –

Spot 1.2701, Stop if Offered 1.2680, Stop if Bid 1.2720 with corresponding 20bps SLs.

CPI came out strong, PPI weaker, HPI, higher, so what we can deduce is that inflationary pressures are coming from asset appreciation and consumption.

Consumption ok, but asset appreciatio by way of high real estate prices is not healthy, more importantly, it gives BOE the ammunition to raise interest rates to stop the real estate market from over-bubbling.

I withdrew the straddle trade.

On June 8, I decided to buy two USDJPY call options; a 1 month and a 3 month with the following details: –

1 month USDJPY call option expiring 10 July

Spot 109.50, Premium 1.02, B/E 110.52

3 month USDJPY call option expiring 8 Sep

Spot 109.50, Premium 1.68, B/E 111.18

I am confident that USDJPY will resume its march back up to 114.

Let’s see.

Admittedly, I was alittle nervous going into the RBA rate decision yesterday. However, AUDUSD was hovering around 0.7485 going into the RBA session.

It was quite certain that RBA wouldn’t lower or raise interest rates. Too much noise in the market about a possible rate cut and then again with inflation and the ‘bubble’ real estate market, the only way is to raise interest rates.

Anyway, I wasn’t so bothered about it, I was more concern about the RBA statement and what it could imply???

Thankfully, it was a neutral statement, one without ‘teeth’.  AUDUSD responded positively and powered northwards.

I decided to square the other half of my AUDUSD call option at 0.7550 for a trading profit of 142bps!!!

Thank you RBA, thank you Lowe!

After ADP superby performance of 253K versus forecast of 181K, Wall Street and Main Street were anxiously awaiting NFP tonight.

Then again, there were many times when NFP surprised us all with a weaker number.

I decided to play my straddle to capture the market either way: –

Bought a EURUSD Put Option expiring Monday, June 5th; Spot 1.1215 and B/E 1.1189

Bought a USDJPY Put Option expiring Monday, June 5th; Spot 111.59 and B/E 111.26

As it turned out, the NFP number came in considerably weaker at 138K versus forecast of 181K and previous month was also adjusted lower.

The EUR strengthened agaisnt the USD, so my put option was useless.

However, the JPY strengthened against the USD and put my USDJPY put option into the money.

I decided to square the USDJPY put option at 110.57.  It was sufficient to offset the cost of both the options and left me with a decent 36 bps trading profit.

I decided not to stare Lady Luck in the face, so I sold off half the option at 0.7500 (BE: 0.7408) for a trading profit of 92bps.

Not bad!

As it turned out, the GBPUSD went to the moon after I bought the put option whereas my decision on the USDJPY call option turned out to be a BIG reward.

On May 9th, the USDJPY hit a high of 114.23 and I felt that there could be more momentum and I decided not to close the position. A few days later, our dear Trump started shooting his mouth off, the USDJPY came off slightly.

Another opportunity to take profit presented itself on May 11th when it recovered and was up to 114.32, I decided to take profit and sold the option at 114.29 for a nice trading profit of 4 BIG yen!

The GBPUSD put option on the other hand never saw daylight but the comforting fact is that I was prepared to lose the premium of 129bps to begin with.

So net net, we did well.

After slumping for three months, market is expecting the retail sales to recover.

So at near 4:30pm, I put in my Stop if Bid trade with the following details: –

Spot: 1.2980

Stop if Bid: 1.3000

Squared at 1.3033

Trading profit: 33bps

Not bad lah!

UK usually is sensitive to this data as it is largely a services and consumption economy.

I decided to place a straddle with the following details: –

Spot: 1.2938

Stop if Bid: 1.2968

Stop if Offered: 1.2908

Let’s see.

Looked at the 1H and 4H AUDUSD charts and felt that the AUDUSD has bottomed and potentially has a chance to move up in the near future.

So decided to buy a 1 month call option with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7340

Premium: 68bps

BE: 0.7408

Expiry: 12 June 2017

Let’s see what happens.