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Last Friday night, I decided to buy two GBPUSD call options because I felt that the GBP was probably hitting a low with the following details: –

GBPUSD Call option expiring Friday, October 27th; spot at 1.3030, premium at 100bps and breakeven at 1.3130.

GBPUSD Call option expiring Friday, November 10th; spot at 1.3030, premium at 138bps and breakeven at 1.3168.

Let’see what happens, spot is currently trading at 1.3134.  Let’s hope May doesn’t derail anything.

 

The USA had two good days; good ISM manufacturing PMIs, good ADP non farm payrolls, good ISM non manufacturing PMIs………..kept the USD bidded against all majors.

Although, my put options are only expiring tomorrow and we have the non farm payrolls which could be stronger or weaker than the ADP, I am not confident in taking the risk exposure going into the last day of my option.

So I decided to take what the market could give me now and sold off both the put options at 1.3180 for a trading profit of 80bps. Not bad lah…………1:1 payout ratio, was hoping for more…………….however, never stare Lady Luck in the face.

So, gladly I am out of all four put options without any BLOOD!  Sold of the first two at breakeven level and the last two for a profit.

Yesterday, I felt that the contruction PMI would be a volatile event data following all the talk about Brexit.  It would be interesting to see how the construction industry is taking to the potential exodus of expats and investors of out the UK and back to Europe.

Just before the announcement, as usual, I put in my straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3260, Spot at 1.3280, Stop if Bid at 1.3300

As it turned out the construction pmi came out weakest in the past 13 months at 48.1 versus expectations of 51.1.

Initially, GBP didn’t collapse, however, it did later trigger my stop if offered leg and it continued to do a very very slow decline in to the opening session of NY.

I decided to square the spot position at 1.3230 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Yesterday, I decided to reduce my risk exposure by selling two of the put options at 1.3230 for a small trading profit of 30bps.

I am still holding two more put options and hopefully, we will see a further downside to the GBPUSD.

Right now, it’s attemtpting to cross the 200DMA @ 4H chart at 1.3201 from the top, if it does, then, we should see a collapse in the GBPUSD, unfortunately, will my put option have enough time???

Spot currently at 112.71.

Looks like my put option expiring tomorrow will expire worthless and will take a hit of 1.03yen, the cost of the option.

Oh well, we win some and we lose some…………that is FX trading………….

There is no way to gauge whether the Fed is going to be hawkish or dovish in this meeting, financial markets, Wall Street is quite divided in its views, which sets up a potential volatile event.

I decided to place my straddles with the following details: –

GBPUSD:  Stop if Offered at 1.3560, Spot at 1.3592, Stop if Bid at 1.3620

USDJPY: Stop if Offered at 111.00, Spot at 111.34, Stop if Bid at 111.60

AUDUSD: Stop if Offered at 0.8050, Spot at 0.8083, Stop if bid at 0.8110

As it turned out, the Fed is HAWKISH!

All my trades was triggered!

I squared all three trades as follows: –

AUDUSD: Squared at 0.8002 for a trading profit of 47bps

USDJPY: Squared at 112.23 for a trading profit of 0.65yen

GBPUSD: Squared at 1.3473 for a trading profit of 87bps

Not a bad FOMC outcome!!!

This data is usually a market mover for the GBPUSD since it’s largely a services economy. However, with the FOMC just less than 24 hours away, I wasn’t sure whether the GBP would move or not.

In any case, just in case it moves, I decided to put on my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3470, Spot at 1.3512, Stop if Bid at 1.3540

Corresponding SLs at spot.

As it turned out, the Retail Sales came in at 1.0 versus forecast of 0.2.  GBP spiked upwards and triggered my stop if bid leg.

I waited till it hit 1.3600 and I decided to square the trade for a trading profit of 60bps.

GBPUSD is now trending at 1.3582.

Whew…………….what a quickie………….all in 4 minutes!  Hehehehehehehehe

The GBPUSD is going crazy, it’s now at 1.3530!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don’t believe in the strength of the GBPUSD, so I am buying another GBPUSD put option with the following details:-

Expiry date: Friday, Oct 6th

Strike at spot: 1.3530

Premium: 110bps

Breakeven: 1.3420

My average breakeven for 4 put options is now: 1.3260.

Let’s see!!!!

This morning Aussie time, I decided to buy another put option on the GBPUSD with the following details: –

Strike: 1.3400

Premium: 110bps

Breakeven: 1.3290

Average of three put options now: 1.3206

Bought another put option since the GBPUSD spiked up more than 100bps.

Strike at spot of 1.3340

Premium: 110

Breakeven: 1.3230

Now my average breakeven is 1.3165

Let’s see.