Major currencies like the JPY and EUR have moved by ONE BIG FIGURE against the USD in the past 24 hours!!!
Welcome everyone…………..I am back!!! After stepping away from FX trading the past 4 years, I am now re-engaging trading again……….lots to catch up on……..the economic and financial dynamics between countries are so different now.
Will keep all of you updated on my thoughts……………
RBA minutes came out this morning somewhat dovish and uncertain about whether the next rate decision will be up or down or flat. AUD took a hit!
I decided to buy a one month call option expiring on July 20th with the following details: –
Spot; 0.7375
Premium; 0.70
Breakeven; 0.7445
Let’s see……………..
I decided yesterday to buy a put option on the USDJPY with the following details: –
Strike: 111.13
Premium: 1.91
Breakeven: 109.22
Expiry: 10 August 2018
Felt that the USDJPY was overbought and that a retracement was due, more importantly, the 10 year treasury also signalled a possible retracement since it has a positive correlation with the USD.
This morning Asia time I decided to take profit on both the options with the following details: –
AUDUSD; sold at 0.7550, locking in a trading profit of 122bps.
USDJPY; sold at 109.20, lock in a trading profit of 0.76yen.
Not bad for a short trade!
Let’s see if we can identify another trade in the near future.
Uncertainty looming over the trade talks between Abe and Trump during Abe’s visit to the USA, Abe’s sliding popularity vote, Abe’s scandal, and the US 10 yield rising above 3%, all prompted me to feel that the yen will weaken in the near term.
So I decided to execute a 2 week call option, maturing on May 4th with the following details: –
Strike; 108.04, Premium; 0.40, Breakeven; 108.44
Let’s see.
On April 20th, I felt that the AUDUSD was peakish from a technical viewpoint. More importantly, was the recent media releases about the health of the banks and the fact that the property market in Australia is starting to slide.
I decided to take the opportunity to do a 2 week put option expiring on May 4th with the following details: –
Strike; 0.7722, Premium; 50bps, Breakeven; 0.7672
Let’s see.
Here’s wishing one and all a prosperous and happy 2018.
The Year of the Dog will probably bring more positives than negatives………….like the Dog we should all be positive, happy, hardworking, playful and loving throughout the year.
Geo-political issues will continue to evolve, however, there is sufficient rational and mature politicians to manage the likes of Trump and Kim Jong-un.
Global economies will the front and centre, as more and more economies have to begin grappling with the issue of monetary tightening. What is that going to do to their respective economies? What will that mean for trading countries? How will the balance of trade and balance of payments pan out? Which currency will be stronger and which currency will be weaker this year?
Gold holding at US$1,333 is indicative of the tension amongst countries with geo-political issues, namely, the USA with the rest of the world, thanks to Humpty Dumpty Trumpy…………….making a mess! It also signifies that global economies could very well turn back south is the moderate growth is not managed well.
The dialing back of both monetary and fiscal policies must be done gradually in order not to shock the economy and also the financial markets.
The recent diarrhoea in the USA equity markets is testament that there isn’t sufficient fundamentals to support the runaway equity market.
I am excited at the prospects for trading this year, are all of you?
Let’s continue to keep up the dialogue and communication, you can reach me at twitter and here.
Here is wishing all of us a great 2018!!!
After the majors ripped through the USD for a better part of January, I decided that it was about time the USD was oversold or too far beaten up, that it will shortly be time for a reversal.
I decided to buy three options as follows: –
USDJPY @ Call option expiring Friday, 2 March; strike at 108.83, premium at 1.10 and breakeven at 109.93
GBPUSD @ Put option expiring Friday, 2 March; strike 1.4313, premium of 150bps and breakeven at 1.4163
AUDUSD @ Put option expiring 16 February; strike 0.8113, premium of 72bps and breakeven at 0.8041
I sold off the GBPUSD put option at 1.3990 for a trading profit of 173bps.
I sold off the AUDUSD put option at 0.7790 for a trading profit of 251bps.
My USDJPY option is in trouble with spot at 107.15, the option may expire in early March worthless. In any case, at the time when I bought the option I was prepared to part with the option monies, so it’s ok.
More importantly, these three option trades clearly demonstrate that we can’t win all the time. What’s important is to follow and study the market, put our mark on it and wait for the market to come to us, however, we should always manage the risk parameters, if we don’t, chances of losing monies is imminent.
Now, I need to think about doing the reverse in the USDJPY, what do the rest of you think?
The USDJPY traded to a high of 113.29 on January 5th and then consolidated slightly lower, just below 113.00
On Monday, January 8th, USDJPY made another attempt to surge upwards, I decided to sell the option at 113.30.
A nice trading profit of 82yen!
During the last week and into the first week of January 2018, the US Dollar took a beating from all the majors.
On January 2nd when I opened up my computers and looked at the FX markets, the USDJPY looked yummy.
So I decided to buy a call option with the following details: –
Strike; 112.08
Premium; 40bps
Breakeven; 112.48
Expiry; Friday, January 12th
Let’s see what happens………..
I am born in the Year of the Tiger.
The Panthenon Investment Group 