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Tag Archives: call option

The USDJPY call option expired on July 17th………..worthless.

Premium loss was 0.48yen.

Bought a USDJPY call option expiring on Monday, July 17th with the following details: –

Spot: 113.25, Premium: 0.48, Breakeven: 113.73.

Let’s see what happens?!

On July 3rd when USDJPY crossed 113, I decided to take profit on my 1 month USDJPY call option.

The 1 month call option had an expiry date of July 10 and a BE of 110.52.

I squared the option at 113.20 for a whopping trading profit of 2.68 yen!!!

Now to continue monitoring the outstanding 3 month call option expiring in September which is in the money now.

On June 8, I decided to buy two USDJPY call options; a 1 month and a 3 month with the following details: –

1 month USDJPY call option expiring 10 July

Spot 109.50, Premium 1.02, B/E 110.52

3 month USDJPY call option expiring 8 Sep

Spot 109.50, Premium 1.68, B/E 111.18

I am confident that USDJPY will resume its march back up to 114.

Let’s see.

Looked at the 1H and 4H AUDUSD charts and felt that the AUDUSD has bottomed and potentially has a chance to move up in the near future.

So decided to buy a 1 month call option with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7340

Premium: 68bps

BE: 0.7408

Expiry: 12 June 2017

Let’s see what happens.

I believe Draghi is going to starting reining in QE as he kind of hinted in his last press conference.

However, because of the Brexit, French elections, Greece and Italy, I can’t help thinking that he might end up also being alittle dovish.

So in truth, I believe he can go either way, but the volatility on the upside seem to be higher than the down side.

I decided to execute a double down call and put option spread with the following details: –

Spot; 1.0905

Call option; BE; 1.0948 with 43bps premium

Put Option; BE; 1.0879 with 26 bps premium

Total premiums; 69bps.

Let’s see what happens. I believe whatever happens tonight will translate into market action over the next few days.

It doesn’t help that it’s a long weekend upcoming up.

 

Volatility is low, so it’s increasingly more difficult to do intra day spot trades.

I felt the timing was more appropriate for options so decided to execute the following options: –

1 Month GBPUSD Put Option – Strike at Spot 1.2565, premium at 129bps and BE at 1.2436

1 Month USDJPY Call Option – Strike at Spot 108.85, premium at 1.43yen and BE at 110.29

Let’s see what happens.

I decided not to exit the call option on Friday thinking that it would go higher, but by the time I came back from a late dinner, USDJPY had come back down from 113.70 to about 113.30.

I decided to place a take profit level at 114.00 just in case it bounced back up on Monday morning during Aussie early session.

When I woke up this morning to cook breakfast for my wife, I didn’t pay any attention to the FX rates, but later on, I received an sms from Goldman Sachs informing me that my take profit level was hit at 114.00, in fact, the high was 114.13.

The call option was sold at 114.00 and the resulting trading profit was 0.95yen……not bad!

Now, I still have another outstanding USDJPY call option, however, I have time till mid March.

The FX markets has proven to be most unpredictable.  On the March 22nd, I felt strongly that the USD was oversold and the charts seem to indicate it, however, after Yellen’s speech at the NY Economic Club, the USD was killed.

All the majors rallied against the USD and in fact, made new highs for 2016.  This was more disheartening, however, I was fortunate in that I played the potential opportunity while waiting for the market to come to me by way of options.  Therefore, I have accepted my absolute losses which was the premiums I paid for the options upfront.

I have been hearing from the banks and on the ground that many FX clients have been caught on the wrong foot.  Worse still though the USD has made back some gains, the JPY went against the rest of the majors by strengthening against the USD.  Can you imagine that the JPY has moved 5 big figures since the last week of March?!

Anyway, when I started seeing the USD gain back ground against the majors I decided to sell of two of my outstanding options; the GBPUSD Put Option and the AUDUSD Call Option.

On April 6th after London opened, the GBP was aggressive sold off, I decided not to wait again like I did two weeks and so decided to sell the put option at 1.4030 for a trading profit of 252bps (breakeven was 1.4282), option originally expiring on April 29th.

On March 31st after NY opened, the AUD continued climbing up against the USD, I put in an order to sell the call option at 0.7700 and it got triggered, locking in a trading profit of 280bps, call option had an expiry date of July 9th.

While the trades turned out in my favor it was not without days and weeks of disbelief that my call was potentially wrong, but instead of waiting closer to expiry, I decided not to star a gift horse n the face, so take profit on the options.

As you can see, the risk reward ratio wasn’t great, on average about 1:1.  A better trade would be 2:1 or higher.  Anyway, I am just glad to be out.

Now I still have three outstanding put options; EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD which are not in the money and we are going into the second week of April.  I have some time left and let’s hope the market moves in my favor.

 

You will recall that I was a strong believer in the AUD and the Australian so much so that I bought two large call options.

The first with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7015

Premium: 288bps

Breakeven: 0.7303

Expiring 26 August 2016

I decided not to stare good fortune in the face and sold the option at 0.7603 for a 300bps trading profit.

Though the absolute amount of the trading profit is nice at US$5.4Million, from a risk reward ratio of near 1:1 (as the option cost me US$5Million), it wasn’t exactly a good trade.

However, I was not about to continue waiting for the Australia economy, I have somewhat lost faith in its rebalancing and rejuvenation away from mining.

The remaining AUDUSD call option expiring 9 July 2016 has a breakeven of 0.7420, I will take a chance and keep this option as I still have time on my side and who knows, maybe, some of the private banks are correct when they are forecasting AUDUSD at 0.7900 within the next 3 months.