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I looked at the AUDUSD, felt that it is too strong given, the weak economy, structural weakness, impending inflation and poor job numbers.

I decided to BUY a 1 month Put Option on the AUDUSD, strike at the money spot of 0.9640, expiring 22 November 2013, premium of 107bps and breakeven of 0.9533.

I am looking at a 1:1 payout at 0.9425 and a possible 2.24:1 payout at 0.9293.  Let’s not forget that it was barely three weeks ago that the AUD was at 0.9280.  I believe the likely outcome would be about 1.6:1.  We’ll see.

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