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26 Oct 2016; squared USDJPY at 104.05

When USDJPY hit a low of 104.04 this evening, I realized that it created a double bottom as it hit an earlier bottm of 104.06 in the opening of Aussie session this morning.

I decided to square my position at 104.05 for a trading profit of 0.59 yen.  Not too bad.

I also established a Long USDJPY at 104.15. Let’s see if we can ride the USDJPY back up to 104.80?

25 Oct 2016; After dinner, Short USDJPY again at 104.83

Came home from dinner to see that USDJPY trended slightly higher at 104.85, so I decided to Short USDJPY again at 104.83 and with my earlier trade at 104.45, it brings my average down to 104.64.

Since, the trades are done on cash basis, I can afford to wait for the market to come to me.

Currently, spot is at 104.62.

25 October 2016; Short USDJPY at 104.45

Pursuant to my thoughts on the new trading channel for USDJPY, I decided to Short USDJPY at 104.45 five minutes ago.

Let’s see what happens?

By the way, this is a cash transaction, no leverage involved.

24 Oct 2016 @ USDJPY; my thoughts on the new channel

We had a good run trading USDJPY between 100 and 103 in August, I mentioned that potentially we needed to re-look this trading strategy going forward.

Taking into account the continuing Brexit fears which will strengthen the JPY, but then again, weak growth and low CPI in Japan will weaken the JPY, then, the supposed ‘helicopter monies’ hanging overhead which will weaken the JPY, then the threat of FOMC rate hike in December which will weaken the JPY.

All in all, I believe the USDJPY channel has now moved to a potential new channel, that is, 102 to 104 range.  Look at the 1H and 4H price chart that I have appended below including the Fibo: –

usdjpy_4h_scenario-1

 

usdjpy_1h_scenario-2

Let’s continue to observe this new channel

Got my dues back from the yen @ 13 October 2016

On last Thursday, 13 October 2016, when I woke up I realized that USDJPY had spiked up to 104.47 off the previous night’s Brexit fears.

I decided to Short USDJPY at 104.47 at about 9:30am.

About two hours later, USDJPY strengthened to 103.66, so I decided to square my position and locked in trading profits of 0.81 yen.

Thank you USDJPY.  At least this trade made up for the 0.30 yen loss earlier in the week.

My dance with USDJPY last week………..hahahahahahaha

Last week, I short the USDJPY at 102.95 and again at 103.52 for an average cost of 103.23.

By the end of the week, I was getting uncomfortable with the possibility of a strong NFP, so I decided to cut loss at 103.53 and took a loss of 0.30 yen.

Late Friday, USDJPY strengthened to 102.80 just before NY close behind a softer NFP.  However, the NFP of 156K versus expectations of 171K wasn’t too bad especially, since the previous month was revised from 151K to 167K.

The US is on track for a rate hike in December 2016!!!

29 September 2016; Thank you Kuroda!

I strongly believed that Kuroda was going to talk a weaker yen, unfortunately, his speech was rather neutral and political.

When he says that the BOJ is comfortable for inflation to shoot past 2%, I mean it must be a joke right. Inflation is so benign in Japan, shooting past a target that is so far away is RIDICULOUS! It would be so different if Kuroda said that they would adjust CPI to 1.5% and then, let it over shoot.  If USA has adjusted CPI downwards, why not Japan?????

Today QE in Japan is about 400 trillion yen or about 80% of nominal GDP…………hmmmmmm………..that is scary!!!!!!!

This can only mean a WEAKER YEN.

Anyway, coming up to Kuroda’s speech, yen was weakening from 100.8 in Asia morning to 101.70 by 2pm.

I decided to square my position at 101.70 for a trading profit of 1.54 yen!!!!!!! Yummy!!!!!!

27 September 2016; Long USDJPY at 100.22

Last night at about 9pm, when USDJPY slid back near the 100 level, I decided to go Long again on the USDJPY at 100.22.

So now, I have two tranches; one at 100.1o and another at 100.22 with an average cost of 100.16.

Let’s see.

27 September 2016; Sell USDJPY at 100.95

Yesterday afternoon when USDJPY rose to near 101, I decided to square off half the position at 100.95 for a trading profit of 0.85 yen.  Not bad for less than 24 hours.

22 September 2016: Long USDJPY at 100.10

When I woke up, I realized that the USDJPY had collapsed from 102.7 down to the 100 level.

So being true to my call on the USDJPY, I went long at 100.10.

Today is September 28th.

I was out playing a charity golf on Friday and then dinner, so pretty much was out of the market, however, I noticed the USDJPY recovered back up to 101.23 on Friday morning.  A missed opportunity to square off the trade.

On Tuesday, September 27th, USDJPY came back off to the 100 level and I went long again at 100.10 doubling my position but on a cash basis.