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At 6:50pm, I placed my straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3170, Spot at 1.3204, Stop if Bid at 1.3230

Correspondingly SLs at spot.

As it turned out, interest rate was kept on hold, so was the asset purchase.

Votes was the same at 7-2.

I suppose the financial markets took the two differeing votes as another constant from the last rate decision and concluded that it means the BOE is on firmer ground, I don’t know.

However, the GBP strengthened, triggering my Stop if Bid.

I squared the trade at 1.3333 for a trading profit of 103bps.

Thank you BOE or should I say, thank you High Street and Wall Street!

Based on 4H chart, it seems that GBPUSD has completed three waves and is on the way down?!

I decided to but a put option for 3 weeks expiring on Friday, October 6th with the following details: –

Strike: 1.3210

Premium: 112bps

Breakeven: 1.3098

Let’s see what happens?!  I am managing this option risk through a small size trade.

The 4H chart seems to indicate a potential triple top; 110.88 – 110.58 and currently 110.50.

I decided to execute a two week put option expiring Friday, Sept 29th with the following details: –

Strike: 110.50

Premium: 1.03

Breakeven: 109.47

Target: 108.20

Let’s see what happens?!

Believing that today’s data could also move the GBP, I decided to put in my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3280, Spot 1.3312, Stop if Bid 1.3240

As it turned out, unemployment was lower, claimant count was lower and average earnings index was lower……………..does that all mean BOE may tighten monetary policy?

In the meantime, my stop if offered leg was triggered, but market wasn’t moving, it was gyrating between 1.3275 and 1.3285.

So I decided to square the position at 1.3275………….ALL SQUARE.

Felt that this would be a mover, so decided to put on my straddle just before release of data with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3170, Spot 1.3200, Stop if Bid 1.3230

As it turned out, CPI shot up to 2.9% against forecast of 2.8%, core CPI at 2.7% against forecast of 2.5%, PPI elevated to 0.4% from 0.1%.

GBP strengthened and triggered by Stop if Bid level.

I squared half the position at 1.3255 for a trading profit of 25bps and squared the balance at 1.3270 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Not a bad start after not trading for over a month.

Next is Claimant count and then BOE decision

The two AUDUSD put options caused me premiums of 65bps.

You win some you lose some.

The lesson learnt this time around, is that when dynamics change, it is important to take two steps backwards to study the changing dynamics and to ascertain whether the goalposts are changing or have changed and why?

Knowing that GBPUSD always move earlier than the time of data announcement, I decided to put my straddle earlier at 4pm.

All central banks are looking at tightening monetary policy and therefore CPI is going to be closely looked at as an indication of inflation.

My straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered; 1.3080, Spot; 1.3115, Stop if Bid; 1.3145

As it turned out CPI came in weaker at 2.6% versus forecast of 2.9%.

My Stop if Offered was triggered.

It’s 4:37pm and I just squared my position at 1.3025 for a trading profit of 55bps.

Not bad, thank you GBPUSD, at least, I managed to make back for some of the losses on the EURUSD put option and USDJPY call option.

More trading opportunities this week when ECB is front and centre

 

Lost 36bps on the premiums paid for the EURUSD put option which expired on July 17th……….worthless.

The USDJPY call option expired on July 17th………..worthless.

Premium loss was 0.48yen.

Decided to average out with another AUDUSD put option expiring on Friday, July 21st with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7745, Premium: 30bps Breakeven: 0.7715.

Average AUDUSD now at 0.7705.

Let’s see