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Monthly Archives: January 2014

The 74K NFP question or mystery?

The non farm payroll number certainly surprised the markets last Friday with a 74K print when the whole world was expecting a 196K estimate.

It gave forex traders the ammunition to beat up the USD and that they did, with all the majors gaining by one big figure.

Then articles started coming out in the press, speculating whether or not this is a simple blip or a precursor to a further weakening in the US labor market.

Personally, I believe the NFP numbers will usually experience anomalies during the winter months, when less people are working and less employers are employing…….all because of the weather. This winter is a harsh one in the U.S., and in Europe, therefore, I expect employment to be weaker in the next two months.

From Monday to Tuesday, the EUR and GBP started correcting and giving up gains from Friday, however, the AUD and JPY continued to grind higher against the USD. The AUD helped by the buoyant housing market, however, the structural economy is still weak. The JPY was alittle puzzling, but maybe, it’s a reversal from the long bull run the USD had against the JPY starting from 101.00 a month ago.

Chinese New Year is on January 31st and I will be busy with family affairs starting next week right up to the first day of Chinese New Year. Admittedly, I haven’t really jumped back on the trading chair since Christmas and I really need to in order to start the new year with a nice foundation.

I will be posting the November and December performance review shortly and an overall experiential feedback of 2013.

Trade: Call Option on GBPUSD expiring Friday, January 17th, 2014

The GBPUSD did a wonderful see saw roller coaster ride from Friday last week with the weak NFP numbers. Initially, it strengthened about 100bps, then on Monday in the afternoon, it took a nose dive from 1.6500 to 1.6350. From this morning, the GBPUSD was making a slow comeback grind from 1.6350 to 1.6390 in Asia session.

The Ichimoku and stochastics indicated that the GBPUSD was primed for a move back up. So I decided to buy a call option struck at the money spot of 1.6390 with a premium cost of 46bps, expiring on Friday, January 17th and a breakeven of 1.6436.

Right now in the US morning session, the GBPUSD is holding steady at 1.6435. Well, let’s see whether I am right or not.