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Tag Archives: gbpusd

After slumping for three months, market is expecting the retail sales to recover.

So at near 4:30pm, I put in my Stop if Bid trade with the following details: –

Spot: 1.2980

Stop if Bid: 1.3000

Squared at 1.3033

Trading profit: 33bps

Not bad lah!

The straddle that was executed was triggered on the offered side and it almost got triggered on the bid side as well, thankfully.

However, the CPI, RPI and PPI data was mixed including the trade balance and the GBPUSD reflected it with a lack of momentum on the downside.

I decided to take profit at 1.2875 for a trading profit of 33bps.

UK usually is sensitive to this data as it is largely a services and consumption economy.

I decided to place a straddle with the following details: –

Spot: 1.2938

Stop if Bid: 1.2968

Stop if Offered: 1.2908

Let’s see.

Given UK’s preoccupation with the Brexit and firms pulling out, I felt that the manufacturing numbers were probably going to be weak.

So decided to put in my GBPUSD straddle with the following details: –

Stop If Offered at 1.2440, Spoat at 1.2460, Stop if Bid at 1.2480

All the data came out weak, and it triggered by Stop if Offered leg, but for some reason the GBP seemed resilient, so I decided to square the position at 1.2400 for a trading profit of 40bps.

UK Services PMI will always be a much looked at data given the services economy that is the UK.

I decided to put in my GBPUSD straddle with the following detail: –

Stop if Offered at 1.2444, Spot at 1.2474, Stop if Bid at 1.2474

Though the PMI came out strong at 55 versus forecast of 53.5, the GBP just didn’t make much of a move, it did trigger my stop if bid leg.

I squared the position at 1.2492 for a small trading profit of 18bps.

 

One of the more significant speeches to be made by Theresa May after triggering Article 50.

So I decided to place a straddle just before the speech with the following details: –

Stop If Offered at 1.2538, Spot at 1.2568, Stop if Bid at 1.2590

After Theresa May announced a possible snap election in June, the GBPUSD started getting bidded.

I followed the spot trade till about 9:25pm and decided to square the position at 1.2725 (high was 1.2745) for a trading profit of 135bps.

Thank you Theresa!!!

 

Volatility is low, so it’s increasingly more difficult to do intra day spot trades.

I felt the timing was more appropriate for options so decided to execute the following options: –

1 Month GBPUSD Put Option – Strike at Spot 1.2565, premium at 129bps and BE at 1.2436

1 Month USDJPY Call Option – Strike at Spot 108.85, premium at 1.43yen and BE at 110.29

Let’s see what happens.

Was trying to get a feel for the range of the GBPUSD.

The 4H  –  High 1.3441, Low 1.2022, spot at about 23.8% retracement level

1H   –   HIgh 1.2560, Low 1.2119, spot just above 61.8% retracement level

It suggests that if there is positive news coming out of the UK that the 1H could breakout and then the 4H begins to be relevant.

Have to keep watching……………….

Ever since, Brexit has been looming over the UK, all data attributed to manufacturing and services has been on the radar screen.

This evening was the UK Mfg PMI.  I didn’t really know which way it was going to swing, but I could sense that it would be a weaker data, so I placed a one leg straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.2566, SL at 1.2586 and Spot at 1.2589.

The data came our flat at 55.9 same as forecast, GBPUSD hardly moved, so I withdrew the straddle trade.

 

Tonight, Theresa May is addressing the nation on how she is going to implement Brexit.

She mentioned that the Government will put the final Brexit deal to a vote in both houses of parliament.

Does this mean that there is a possibility of a repeal in the Brexit?

Market seems to like what is it hearing from Theresa May.

I decided to place a straddle when her speech started with the following details: –

GBPUSD: Stop if Offered at 1.2120 (SL 1.2140), Spot at 1.2158, Stop if Bid at 1.2175 (SL1.2145)

My Bid was triggered and I rode it up till I squared the position at 1.2325 (High was 1.2346) for a trading profit of 150bps!!!

Thank you Theresa May and what a trade to start the Year of the Rooster!!!