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Tag Archives: gbpusd

Another sought after UK economic data.

I decided to place my straddle with the following details: –

GBPUSD; Stop if Offered at 1.3323, Spot at 1.3344, Stop if Bid at 1.3365

Claimant count came out worse at negative 5.9K versus forecast of 3.3K, and previous month was revised upwards to negative 6.5K from 1.1K. Bad situation in the employment scene in the UK.

Unfortunately, the GBPUSD spiked upwards and triggered my stop if bid and before I could do anything, it fell and hit my stoploss at 1.3344, so I ended up with a small loss of 21bps……………such is life!

Nowadays inflation data of all first world countries is an important economic data to watch out for. Today, is UK CPI.

I decided to place my straddle trade with the following details: –

GBPUSD; Stop if Offered at 1.3335, Spot att 1.3341, Stop if Bid at 1.3365

As it turned out CPI came slightly higher at 3.1% against forecast of 3.0%. Core CPI was the same at 2.7%.

The GBPUSD moved up and triggered by stop if bid, however, after less than 10 minutes it simply had no legs.

I squared the trade at 1.3375 for a small trading profit of 10bps.

Today was UK Services PMI, and typically a hot data.

I decided to put on my straddle just before the announcement of the data with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3370, Spot at 1.3388, Stop if Bid at 1.3410

As it turned out the data came in weaker at 53.8 versus forecast of 55.2.  Instead the GBP strengthened and triggered by Stop if Bid.

As I needed to leave the office to have dinner with my wife, I decied to square the spot trade at 1.3430 for a small trading profit of 20bps.

One of those much looked at economic data for the UK since it is a services economy.

I decided to place my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3175, Spot at 1.3197, Stop if Bid at 1.3215

Data came out mixed; claimant count was done, but job creation was poor, unemployment rate held constant at 4.3% and average weekly earnings edge upwards.

Market initially stayed quiet not knowing what to make of it and then it started selling off the GBP, I suppose the market took issue with the poor employment change or job creation data.

It triggered my Stop if Offered leg and I follow the market till I felt there was no more steam so I decided to square the trade at 1.3140 for a trading profit of 35bps.

Ok lah……….not too bad for the start of trading this week after coming back from a driving holiday in Malaysia……………..eat and drink.

I saw the GBPUSD peaked at 1.3271, but momentum seemed to wane, so I made a decision to sell the GBPUSD call options.

My breakeven for the two options worked out to 1.3149 and I sold off the options at 1.3268 for a trading profit of 119bps.

I really doubt it will go beyond 1.33.

In any case, it’s important not to ignore a handsome profit when it’s on the table.

Decided to take a punt on this data as it is crucial and will probably have an impact on the GBPUSD.

I decided to put on my straddle with the following deatils: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3100, Spot at 1.3122, Stop if Bid at 1.3145

As it turned out, preliminary GDP came in at 0.4% versus forecast of 0.3%, GBPUSD spiked up, triggering my Stop if Bid trade.

Decided to take profit on half the trade at 1.3200 for a trading profit of 55bps, it’s now trading at 1.3190.

Tonight is durable goods orders in the US, better not take any chances, lock in the profit first, I still have my GBPUSD call options.

 

Last Friday night, I decided to buy two GBPUSD call options because I felt that the GBP was probably hitting a low with the following details: –

GBPUSD Call option expiring Friday, October 27th; spot at 1.3030, premium at 100bps and breakeven at 1.3130.

GBPUSD Call option expiring Friday, November 10th; spot at 1.3030, premium at 138bps and breakeven at 1.3168.

Let’see what happens, spot is currently trading at 1.3134.  Let’s hope May doesn’t derail anything.

 

The USA had two good days; good ISM manufacturing PMIs, good ADP non farm payrolls, good ISM non manufacturing PMIs………..kept the USD bidded against all majors.

Although, my put options are only expiring tomorrow and we have the non farm payrolls which could be stronger or weaker than the ADP, I am not confident in taking the risk exposure going into the last day of my option.

So I decided to take what the market could give me now and sold off both the put options at 1.3180 for a trading profit of 80bps. Not bad lah…………1:1 payout ratio, was hoping for more…………….however, never stare Lady Luck in the face.

So, gladly I am out of all four put options without any BLOOD!  Sold of the first two at breakeven level and the last two for a profit.

Yesterday, I felt that the contruction PMI would be a volatile event data following all the talk about Brexit.  It would be interesting to see how the construction industry is taking to the potential exodus of expats and investors of out the UK and back to Europe.

Just before the announcement, as usual, I put in my straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3260, Spot at 1.3280, Stop if Bid at 1.3300

As it turned out the construction pmi came out weakest in the past 13 months at 48.1 versus expectations of 51.1.

Initially, GBP didn’t collapse, however, it did later trigger my stop if offered leg and it continued to do a very very slow decline in to the opening session of NY.

I decided to square the spot position at 1.3230 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Yesterday, I decided to reduce my risk exposure by selling two of the put options at 1.3230 for a small trading profit of 30bps.

I am still holding two more put options and hopefully, we will see a further downside to the GBPUSD.

Right now, it’s attemtpting to cross the 200DMA @ 4H chart at 1.3201 from the top, if it does, then, we should see a collapse in the GBPUSD, unfortunately, will my put option have enough time???