Looking at the CFTC report last friday, it appears that the entire market was just slight net SHORT the EUR.
Since, the start of this week, the the EUR has been staying within a channel of 1.1300 and 1.1380, I suppose while the market doesn’t see any surprises coming from Draghi, one can never know.
The noise in the media was picking up this afternoon and London open, but not in a big way.
I decided to put my straddle trade on just before the press conference with the following details: –
EURUSD – 1.1295 – 1.1315 – 1.1335
Spot was at 1.1315.
When the press conference started and the first few sentences by Draghi leaned towards a still accommodating monetary policy together with strong jobless claims numbers, it sent the EUR south, triggering my Stop if Offered at 1.1295. The first 15 minutes it has been hovering around the 1.1225 and 1.1230 level. Now all of a sudden it dropped further to 1.1180, I believe it’s either stop loss triggers or option triggers. I decided to square my position at 1.1188 for a trading profit of 107bps. THANK YOU DRAGHI!
I think this means I deserve to play golf tomorrow morning. I am also done for this week.
I am still pondering whether or not to close my books for the year. It just seems to tempting to keep the books open for a few more trades before the year is out.
The Panthenon Investment Group 