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Tag Archives: eurusd

14 Dec @ FOMC!

I wasn’t sure whether the FOMC will turn out like the BOE last month, but there was sufficient buzz in the market to suggest that it could be a volatile event.

I decided not to stay up for the action but instead place some one day vanilla options with the following details:-

EURUSD Call Option; Spot 1.1762, Premium; 40bps, Breakeven; 1.1802

USDJPY Put Option; Spot 113.05, Premium; 38bps, Breakeven; 112.67

AUDUSD Call Option; Spot 0.7610, Premium; 21bps, Breakeven; 0.7631

Decided to square all the three options as follows: –

EURUSD at 1.1830 for a trading profit of 28bps

USDJPY at 112.61 for a trading profit of 0.6 yen

AUDUSD at 0.7634 for a trading profit of 3bps

This whole exercise turned a small profit of 36bps……………aarrgghh…………the whole event turned out to be a lacklustre event.

Ok, I am closing my books for 2017.

Will put up the final performance figures for 2017 shortly.

 

EURUSD put option expired on July 17th…….worthless

Lost 36bps on the premiums paid for the EURUSD put option which expired on July 17th……….worthless.

2 week EURUSD put option bought on July 5th and expiring July 14th

This particular call has turned out to be wrong and it looks like I will be taking a loss of 50bps as there will be no way that EURUSD will fall below 1.1270 within the next 3 days.

Oh well, you win some, and you lose some, that is FX trading for all of us.

Squared off EURUSD Put Option last night

Was following the Yellen speech last night and wasn’t convinced that it was a bullish speech, so I decided to sell the option last night at 1.1400 for a small trading profit of 49bps.

Bought EURUSD Put Option expiring Monday, July 17th

During lunch today when EURUSD was hoving dangerously near the 1.1500 level, I decided to buy a put option expiring on Monday, July 17th with the following details: –

Spot: 1.1485, Premium: 36bps, Breakeven: 1.1449

Right now at 9:54pm Singapore time, EURUSD has broken through the 1H 50DMA and 200DMA.

Let’s see what happens when Janet Yellen speaks shortly.

5 July @ Bought 2 week EURUSD Put Option

The 1H chart looks so yummy with the EURUSD bursting downards of the Ichimoku clouds.  It also cut from the top the 200DMA.

It suggests to me that in the short term there could be further weakness in the EUR.

I decided to buy a 2 week EURUSD Put Option expiring on July 14 with the following details: –

Spot: 1.1320, Premium: 50bps, BE: 1.1270

Let’s see.

US; CPI, Retail Sales

FOMC is fixated on inflation and jobs creation and early this evening was the US; Retail Sales and CPI, which I felt would be a highly volatile event data.

So at about 8:14pm, I decided to put on my straddle on the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –

EURUSD

Stop if Offered at 1.1170, Spot at 1.1202, Stop if Bid at 1.1230

USDJPY

Stop if Offered 109.90, Spot at 110.28, Stop if Bid at 110.58

SLs all established at 30bps away.

As it turned out CPI and Retail Sales bombed!

Both my EURUSD and USDJPY were triggered.

I followed the market till about 11pm and decided to square off my positions as follows: –

EURUSD squared at 1.1276

USDJPY squared at 108.97

Trading profit; USDJPY = 0.93yen and EURUSD = 46bps

Not bad, if I may say so myself.

NFP!

After ADP superby performance of 253K versus forecast of 181K, Wall Street and Main Street were anxiously awaiting NFP tonight.

Then again, there were many times when NFP surprised us all with a weaker number.

I decided to play my straddle to capture the market either way: –

Bought a EURUSD Put Option expiring Monday, June 5th; Spot 1.1215 and B/E 1.1189

Bought a USDJPY Put Option expiring Monday, June 5th; Spot 111.59 and B/E 111.26

As it turned out, the NFP number came in considerably weaker at 138K versus forecast of 181K and previous month was also adjusted lower.

The EUR strengthened agaisnt the USD, so my put option was useless.

However, the JPY strengthened against the USD and put my USDJPY put option into the money.

I decided to square the USDJPY put option at 110.57.  It was sufficient to offset the cost of both the options and left me with a decent 36 bps trading profit.

17 April; two straddles

Yesterday, thought the NY Empire State Manufacturing PMI would be a volatile event.

So, placed two straddles; one EURUSD and the other USDJPY.

Unfortunately, despite the weak data, EUR and JPY hardly moved. I believed the world is on edge about the tension between North Korea and the USA.

So I withdrew both the straddle trades.

Fed D Day

I really did not know which way the market is going to move but there was enough buzz in the markeplace to generate sufficient volatility to do my straddle.

At about 1:56am Singapore time I decided to place two straddle trades with the following details: –

EURUSD; Stop if Offered 1.0600, Spot at 1.0630, Stop if Bid 1.0660

USDJPY; Stop if Offered 114.23, Spot 114.53, Stop if Bid 114.83

All SLs at 30bps away.

I decided to square the USDJPY 3 minutes after the announcement at 113.70 and the EURUSD 5 minutes later at 1.0690.

Trading profit of the USDJPY was 0.53yen and EURUSD 30bps.

Not too bad, was hoping for a bigger move, then again, we should be thankful for good and safe trading profits.