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Category Archives: Thoughts

This is where we share all our thoughts relating to the foreign exchange markets.

There is so much noise, misinformation and disinformation during this upcoming election by the opposition parties, especially PSP………. their solution will leave Singaporeans old and poor later on!

I can speak directly about HDB as I am a beneficiary of the entire system.  Since the change from SIT to HDB, our government has continuously improved the policies revolving around HDB through the decades.  Please bear in mind that as a Singaporean, we have been given the privilege and I dare say the right bestowed by HDB to be able to buy direct from HDB, that is, buy BTO twice in our lifetime.

78% of our population lives in and owns HDB, so our government is clearly very focused on the asset wealth of Singaporeans.  I will also address the 99 years leasehold status of HDB, which by the name is no different from a 99 years leasehold condominium or 99 years leasehold landed property, however, HDB has a major safety net built in.

Singapore is a matured and developed country, so if you compare our public housing to any other similar matured and developed country, HDB public housing has been a miracle for Singaporeans.

Let’s address two misinformation from the opposition parties (especially PSP); firstly, BTO prices are out of reach for Singaporeans and no longer affordable and secondly, the secondary market for HDB flats at over a million dollars is beyond the reach of Singaporeans.

About 83% of Singaporeans are employees working in the workforce, which means all of them report income and pay taxes.  Think for a moment, our government has all the data of the working population and is in the best position to formulate pricing model for HDB that is equitable and reflects the rising incomes of Singaporeans.

Most fresh graduates today have a starting salary of S$3,500/- per month and within the next 3 years to 5 years, will see their incomes rise to the range of S$5,000/- to S$8,000/- per month.  Remember, our government has all the data, so it is reasonable to conclude that our government would be in the best position to formulate the pricing model of HDB flats relative to the salaries of Singaporeans at an affordable and equitable level.  Why do you think the combined income ceiling limit to buy BTO has been raised numerous times starting from S$8,000 to S$10,000 to the current S$14,000, it is because Singaporeans are now earning more, and our government does not wish to cut them out of buying a BTO if they so wish to.  In fact, there is talk that their combined income ceiling could be raised to S$16,000 per month.

An interesting phenomenon that has happened since the 70s till now, I don’t know whether it is by design or by circumstances however, we must be thankful to HDB and our government.  What is it?  Notice that since the 70s till now, any Singaporean who bought a BTO, after the MOP (minimum occupation period), most who sell their HDB in the secondary market 5 years to 10 years later will enjoy capital appreciation anywhere from 50% to 100%.

What does that mean to Singaporeans, all their hard work has paid off in seeing their HDB homes appreciate in value.  In fact, quite a number of Singaporeans, if they have done well in their corporate careers, will take the opportunity to capitalize on the capital appreciation and upgrade into a condominium or landed property.  This has been happening for the past 3 decades it not more.  Best, it is still true today!  So, in fact, the government has a HDB policy that helps all young Singaporeans upgrade if they wish to, which government will do that for you?

Eventually, when we start to grey, we can monetize our private property and then apply the BTO a second time to right size in our old age.  We will then have our own savings, CPF savings and capital appreciation from the private property to see us through our old age without being a burden to our children, our government, our society and our country………..how wonderful!!!

HDB prices for 4 room flats range from S$350,000 to S$800,000 from outlying areas to prime areas, no different from condominiums and landed properties comparing prices from outlying areas to prime areas.  There must be differentiation in pricing and values to reflect the better and prime locations.  HDB ensures that there is a variety of choices for young Singaporeans depending on their income levels.  Of course, one cannot be unrealistic and say, I am a low wage earner, but I want to buy into a prime BTO and HDB is making it unaffordable for me to do so.  Why not use the same analogy and say, I am an average execute earning average middle income salary, but I want to buy a good class bungalow, and our government must make it affordable for me to do so.  Where is the logic in all that???  However, the opposition is saying that, that BTO prices should be low and the same whichever location in Singapore……. totally senseless!

The HDB resale market needs to be healthy for capital appreciation to be able to continue, I like the fact that HDB and the government enacted a curfew policy preventing private property owners from buying into the resale market immediately after they have sold off their property.  The 18-month curfew has contributed to a cooling effect and has stabilized the HDB resale market.

Also, let’s remember that the HDB resale market is supported by majority Singaporeans who are upgrading, therefore it shows that income levels are rising through time, and Singaporeans can bid for higher HDB resale prices.  Is that bad, of course not, it is healthy, and it is a reflection of a healthy and strong economy that allows Singaporeans to have higher incomes.

PSP proposed excluding land cost into the prices of BTO only to be added in, if the HDB owners wish to sell later.  This will destroy the HDB resale market, destroy Singaporeans potential nest egg and eliminate capital appreciation.  Simple, add the prevailing land cost then, add the accrued interest on CPF based on the principal CPF used in the purchase and in the mortgage of the HDB flat………and hold and behold, we are in negative equity!!!  At that time, elderly Singaporeans will be screaming bloody murder as they will not have any nest egg left!

Let’s talk about 99 years leasehold status.  Besides, HDB, there are also condominiums and landed properties that are 99 years leasehold, the difference is that with HDB and our government, there is a renewal policy, there isn’t in the private leasehold property market.  If you own a 99 year leasehold private condominium, at the end of the 99 years, the land is returned to the landlord/property developer.  The landlord/developer owes you no obligation to make you whole.  In the case of HDB, our government has put in place a renewal policy to offer old HDB flat owners to buy new HDB flats at a discount and sell the old flat back to the government.  Which government of a matured and developed country anywhere else in the world would offer this policy???

I wish the opposition parties will come up with more credible ideas, suggestions and policies rather than proposing ideas that will destroy the capital appreciation in the HDB resale marketplace, ideas that will deplete our reserves simply because we have reserves.

Our government is helping the bottom 20% in society, however, the bottom 20% also need to help themselves.  Education and skills are your power, for Singaporeans who are unskilled, please go get skilled, for Singaporeans who want a paper qualification, please go get it.  No one is stopping you, except yourselves.  Get it and claim a better quality of life for yourself and your family.  Let’s not forget, Singapore is a matured and developed country, therefore, there is no place for the unskilled and lowly educated, just like it is the same in any matured and developed country in the world.

For the rest of us who form the thick middle class, let’s continue to fight the good fight to claim what is ours with hard work, work smart, be productive and contribute to Singapore.

Major currencies like the JPY and EUR have moved by ONE BIG FIGURE against the USD in the past 24 hours!!!

Welcome everyone…………..I am back!!! After stepping away from FX trading the past 4 years, I am now re-engaging trading again……….lots to catch up on……..the economic and financial dynamics between countries are so different now.

Will keep all of you updated on my thoughts……………

Here’s wishing one and all a prosperous and happy 2018.

The Year of the Dog will probably bring more positives than negatives………….like the Dog we should all be positive, happy, hardworking, playful and loving throughout the year.

Geo-political issues will continue to evolve, however, there is sufficient rational and mature politicians to manage the likes of Trump and Kim Jong-un.

Global economies will the front and centre, as more and more economies have to begin grappling with the issue of monetary tightening.  What is that going to do to their respective economies?  What will that mean for trading countries? How will the balance of trade and balance of payments pan out? Which currency will be stronger and which currency will be weaker this year?

Gold holding at US$1,333 is indicative of the tension amongst countries with geo-political issues, namely, the USA with the rest of the world, thanks to Humpty Dumpty Trumpy…………….making a mess! It also signifies that global economies could very well turn back south is the moderate growth is not managed well.

The dialing back of both monetary and fiscal policies must be done gradually in order not to shock the economy and also the financial markets.

The recent diarrhoea in the USA equity markets is testament that there isn’t sufficient fundamentals to support the runaway equity market.

I am excited at the prospects for trading this year, are all of you?

Let’s continue to keep up the dialogue and communication, you can reach me at twitter and here.

Here is wishing all of us a great 2018!!!

 

As it happened last month with the BOE, market decided to sell off the GBP when BOE announced the rate hike………….the classic rally on rumours and sell on fact.

Of course, in the GBP’s case, the GBP rallied aggressively prior to the rate decision by BOE.

In the case of the US Dollar, it has lost ground to the EUR.  GBP’s weakness is because of the failure of the recent round of Brexit talks between the EU and Theresa May.

The JPY is the reverse with US gaining ground coming up to the FOMC decision. AUD has weakened recently because of the fear of a softening economy.

So how will the US Dollar react on FOMC rate decision day?

Right now, it appears that it can go either way, so it looks like I will be putting on a straddle to capture either direction if and when it happens.

Are we expecting volatility? Yes!

An event organized by the ECB, bringing together the mightiest central bankers of the major currencies of the world together to TALK SHOP?!

Will we expect any surprises during this meeting or will all the central bankers keep a neutral tone on their respective monetary policies?

Let’s see where the different central bankers positions are at the moment: –

Yellen: the rate hike in December is a done deal and Wall Street has fully priced in the hike. Everyone is now speculating about the ‘path’; both speed and magnitude, this will move the financial markets.

Draghi: he keeps on maintaining a neutral position, saying that monetary policy could go either way depending on the needs of the Eurozone.  However, he did mention that the easy monetary policy is coming as the policy has produced positive economic results in the eurozone area supposedly far better than the USA.

Carney: he is also hinting about a rate hike but didn’t pull the trigger in the last BOE meeting.  Is the BOE deliberately keeping the GBP bidded?  We know that the UK economy is a services economy, a financial markets economy and an education economy. The education sector is rather inelastic, so even is the GBP is stronger, people who need to fund their children’s education in the UK will just keep on paying the higher exchange rate.  The services economy and financial markets economy is beginning to feel the exodus of firms moving out of the UK.  Volumes of trades in the financial markets for the time being is still stable.

Kuroda: no sign of monetary tightening from him. He keeps on reiterating that Japan will have no problem hitting its inflation target of 2%, but the fact is it’s still far away.  Abe’s 4 arrows economic policy had limited impact on the economy and thankfully, he has been re-elected, so any new arrows to look forward to?

The world seems to be in a state of flux both from the economic perspective and also from the monetary policy perspective.  Financial markets like the USA has gone crazy, with P/Es never seen before in the past 10 years.  Is liquidity channeling itself into the financial markets instead of the real economy?  It may appear to be so.

December 2017 will be rememberd in history as one of the pivotal months of the past 10 years.  I am not so sure traders will be closing their books just yet and miss out on what could be one of the best trading periods for the entire year.

As expected, RBA kept interest rates the same and the statement was positive and supportive of the labour market and economic conditions in the country.

This should be supportive for the AUDUSD, maybe, my call option will be fine.

Let’s see.

Was trying to get a feel for the range of the GBPUSD.

The 4H  –  High 1.3441, Low 1.2022, spot at about 23.8% retracement level

1H   –   HIgh 1.2560, Low 1.2119, spot just above 61.8% retracement level

It suggests that if there is positive news coming out of the UK that the 1H could breakout and then the 4H begins to be relevant.

Have to keep watching……………….

After, Yellen’s comments last Friday at Jackson Hole and the subsequent correction in the majors against the USD, I feel levels are now more reasonable reflecting the relative economic health of the countries. However, I believe, the GBP and JPY have more downside adjustment to be made.

Take a look at the 4H USDJPY, the JPY is now just under the 38.2% level, I believe there is more room for the JPY to weaken.

4H usdjpy

4H_eurusd

The EURUSD is showing an interesting pattern. Certainly compared to the GBP, it has shown more resilience.  I believe it’s because the EU has less problems and issues compared to the UK.

It seems to be creating a floor at 1.0980.

This week’s european PMIs came out steady and upbeat. I believe all we need is to see more positive growth news coming out of EU and the EURUSD should easily jump back up to 1.1388.

If ADP for the US comes out weak, it may just provide the impetus for the EUR to be bidded upwards, of course, the big move will come tomorrow during the non farm payroll numbers.

It’s looking interesting???!!!

Ever since Brexit accompanied by the economic problems in Japan, it appears that a trading opportunity is emerging.

As a safe heaven currency now, every time, negative comments are made of post-Brexit and EU, JPY is usually bidded up to 100 and sometimes higher at 98.98. I noticed that the JPY has hit 100 or better three times since post Brexit and each time rebounding back to 102.70 to 103.20.

Guess what it’s back up to 100.75 now, and moving at the 20% range of the stochastic curves.  Possible rebound back to 101, then to 102?

To play the plan vanilla options is not worth it as the vols are high resulting in elevated premiums.

What to do?  How to capture the potential opportunity?