On 29 May 2025, Long EURUSD at 1.1263 and closed out the position at 1.1380 for a 1.03% profit. Then on 30 May 2025, decided to Short EURUSD at 1.1375 and closed the position at 1.1320 for a 0.48% profit. These two trades were based on looking at the Ichimoku and the fast and slow stochastics, I am trying to come back to trading after a long departure from it. I really need to spend more time getting back on the horse as they say. Stay tuned for more trades.
Category Archives: Trades
Let’s look at some foundational and basic facts about the USA
- Only 40% of the population has a basic degree or higher.
- Less than 30% of the population is skilled labor
- 18% of the population is above 65 and growing rapidly
- Manufacturing is barely 10% of the total GDP and less than 10% of the workforce is employed in manufacturing.
- Exports of goods are US$2Trillion or less than 8% of GDP
- While exports of services are US$1Trillion or 3% of GDP which leads the world significantly
- China is the second largest holder of US treasuries in the tune of US$800 billion.
- The USA is the country with the largest household consumption expenditure of US$18.8Bn, followed by the EU of US$9.8Bn and China at US$6.7Bn.
- 40% of Americans are OBESE!
What does all the above tell us?
The USA is the largest economy in the world for now, followed closely by China. The USA is a matured, developed and ‘greying’ economy, whereas China is still growing strongly.
As a matured and developed country, the USA was smart in the past 50 years to move up the value-chain and engaged in high value-added manufacturing and relocating all low value, low end manufacturing offshore in developing countries.
Unfortunately, in the past 30 decades, the Americans did not keep pace with the economic maturity of the country. There are far too many Americans who are illiterate, low skilled or now skill, how do you survive in a matured and developed country?
The education system is broken, and worse Trump is dismantling the Department of Education.
If you look at the Rust Belt or the Mid West, where towns and cities was once bustling with numerous manufacturing industries, are all now ‘ghost’ towns and cities, left behind by the progressive economic train. Recently, I saw a few youtube videos where reporters were interviewing Americans in the Rust Belt and the Mid West. One gentleman in his 30s, said his grandfather was a forklift driver, his father was a forklift driver and he himself was a forklift driver till the factory was closed and moved offshore. Can you imagine, after three generations, nothing has changed???!!! I mean shouldn’t this young man be educated or highly skilled and be relevant to the current US economy?! No, he just wanted to continue to be a forklift driver!
With such a high percentage of illiterate, low skilled or unskilled Americans in the USA, this labor force is irrelevant to the USA of today and with minimum wage of US$13/- per hour, how can any low end, low value manufacturing survive?! Coupled with the fact that 1 in every 2.5 Americans are obese…….how are you going to hire these people to work in the factory???!!!
The structural and fundamental problems faced by the USA today are all self-inflicted, so Trumpy and gang stop blaming China and the rest of the world for your own mess.
Focus on rebuilding deteriorating infrastructure all over the country, boost education, ensure that young Americans either have a degree or a skill so that they can be relevant to the country and to themselves.
Capitalize on what you have an upper hand, that is, high end high value-added manufacturing in semiconductor, electronics and chips. Schools and the government should work together to put programs and policies in place to continue feeding and nurturing innovation and inventions.
Enough of blaming others, if anything stand in front of the mirror, look at yourself and blame yourself……………WAKE UP AMERICA!
2025 and the coming general election in many ways is critical for Singaporeans as the demographics of the electorate has changed and the feelings and mindset of the voters have changed.
More importantly, there is so much misinformation and disinformation out there that it has clouded many people’s perspective of things………. which is dangerous.
This could very well change the mental and emotional approach in which they are going to vote.
Take for example the subject matter of ‘HDB is beyond the reach of Singaporeans’. I mean that is such bullshit, putting it plainly.
Our government has all the income data from IRAS, our government is aware of the starting salaries of tertiary graduates, diploma graduates, all the way down to ITE graduates. Our government knows how Singaporeans are progressing in their careers 3 years to 5 years down the road, they know how their salaries will increase before these young Singaporeans are ready to buy their BTOs. Also not forgetting, need time for dating and for building the relationship before considering marriage.
Our government ensures that there is a variety of BTOs in different locations from prime to less prime so that there is choice, however, we also need to be realistic, we can’t say that my income is low but I want to live in a prime area, just not possible.
The higher prices in BTOs reflect rising building and constructions costs and the government must continue to improve the build quality, amenities and facilities as they are doing so now. The higher prices of BTOs are also a function of higher incomes of buyers. We can’t expect HDB to keep BTO prices at the 1980s levels as asserted by the opposition parties, it’s not realistic and absolutely no logic. Just consider the fact that the combined income ceiling to apply for BTOs has been adjusted upwards through time from $10K to $12K to $14K and I understand in the near future, it will be adjusted to $16K, this is clearly a reflection of higher combined incomes of young Singaporeans. We should be happy and celebrate the success of our children. I have two boys who are Gen Ys, and one boy who is a Gen Zs, I know what I am talking about.
Most Gen Ys and Zs, by the time they graduate from university and enter the working world it would be about 2008 and thereafter. What does this mean? It means that these two generations have never experienced recessions or difficult times.
Let’s be real for a moment, when I was born the first thing I saw was the ceiling fan in KK Hospital when my boys were born in KK Hospital, the first thing they saw and felt was the aircon…….they are aircon babies!
I am also the ‘sandwich’ generation straddling two generations; looking after and caring for my parents who were born in the early 30s and my own children who are our future, embracing old school traditions and simultaneously, embracing the younger generation way of thinking and feeling…….tough. Appreciating the difficult times our parents went through to build a future for their children makes us more grateful for hard work, integrity and having the ‘iron’ to pursue our dreams.
The Gen Ys and Zs are more of the ‘I, me and myself’, individualism is not bad, it creates leaders, creative and innovative geniuses, however, in an increasingly divided society, it becomes imperative that we work together as a team and work cohesively and inclusively for the greater good.
If we look back in the history of Singapore, we are nothing short of a modern-day miracle, however, it was all attributed to the people of Singapore, our only asset and our best asset. We have no natural resources to rely on Mother Earth, we can only rely on ourselves and each other and we made it.
The challenge now is where do we go from here?
The Singapore of today does not have room nor can cater to the lowly educated, we are developed and matured economy, therefore, we need the bare minimum which is skilled labor and higher. So it is no wonder that school dropouts and unskilled labor are having a tough time affording housing and managing cost of living expenses. Our government is helping the bottom 20% of the population with financial aid and the like, however, we need to help ourselves to acquire a skill so that we can be relevant to Singapore and ensure that we have a better qualify of life. There are many programs from WDA to SkillsFuture to help Singaporeans acquire skills. The opposition is not going to be able to help you, they can’t even help themselves.
Gen Ys & Zs have been labelled as ‘the entitled generation’, is it true are there some foundation for this thinking or not? Can we pass the baton on to the Gen Ys & Zs to take Singapore onwards and upwards to an even better future?
The fact that all of us enjoy a better quality of life is not incidental, it is true hard work, focus and the resolve to ensure that the future is better than the one we inherited. However, today I also see a conceited view of Singapore by our young Singaporeans, who feel entitled and feel that the government should do more, but the question is do the young, do more?
Talk……….like we need to vote in more opposition so PAP will wake up their idea and do better. Or PAP is too conceited and arrogant, and we need to vote in more opposition to humble PAP. I really don’t know where all this is coming from.
Let’s face it, no one is perfect, however, if we look at how PAP has done for the past 60 years, then, their track record is damn good! Today, we have many avenues to voice our concerns to the government, and we are heard, we don’t need the opposition to talk on our behalf.
The opposition has not come forth with any decent policies or proposals, except to keep on saying that we should spend our reserves. Do we spend our savings?
So remember when the time comes to vote, vote because you believe in the party you are voting for, not vote for the opposition to spite PAP, that is not an educated and responsible Singaporean.
Watching Lawrence Wong’s speech at the PAP Conference a few days ago, gave me a lot to think about as a Singaporean, and as a Majulah Singaporean who is now a sexagenarian.
I have been blessed to have grown up during the developing years of Singapore, moving from underdeveloped in the early 60s, to strong developing years in the 80s and 90s and culminating as a matured developed country into the 21st century.
Having studied and worked overseas, I can confidently say that Singapore is my home, and Singapore is where I wish to be. Every time coming back to Singapore, we take for granted how green and clean our city, island and country is, we take for granted our efficient and effective everything is around us; we take for granted how peaceful and safe our country is. We do not realize how much effort, time and monies it takes by our Government to ensure a smooth running country for its citizens.
Let’s put things into perspective, from 1965 to 2024, there have been 4 global recessions: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. This does not include SARS in 1997 and COVID19 in 2020, and the impacts caused by the Gulf War and 9/11.
Gen Ys was born between 1981 to 1996, and Gen Zs from 1997 onwards. This means by the time the oldest Gen Y graduated and started working, say at 26 years old, it would be the year 2007. So pretty much most of the Gen Ys and all the Gen Zs have never experienced a recession?! So for the Gen Ys, their first experience of a downturn or a difficult and negative economic period was COVID19 and post COVID19. While we acknowledge the global impact of the pandemic, we must also understand the impact and post impact to the cost of living globally, not just Singapore.
Cost of Living
In fact, the price of our ‘basket of good’ has been increasing steadily since 2015, with climate change, brings unpredictable weather to agriculture, which requires predictable weather, hence, spoilage and lower yields are the new normal which in turn has put pressure on prices of basic foods. The pandemic brought about disruption in the supply chain, and prices started to escalate, however, it has calmed down abet it is still elevated. Inflation globally has fallen since the pandemic.
Let’s dwell into the demographics of our population to gain a better understanding of who may or may not be impacted by the higher cost of living expenses. About 15% of our population is the elderly, that is, above 65 years old. The largest age group is between 30 years old and 36 years old. The bottom 20% of our population has a household income of less than S$3,000.
The median annual salary of Singaporeans is about S$61,000 and in terms of average salary annually about S$70,000.
On a GDP per capital basis, Singaporeans contribute about US$127,565, which means every Singaporean creates or supports about US$127,565 worth of GDP at PPP (purchasing power parity) which considers relative cost of living.
The median annual salary of a fresh graduate in Singapore is about S$51,000. Let’s not even discuss fresh graduates in professional fields like law and medicine which would be higher.
How about programmers and coders, and even more surprising are influencers on social media, the much talked about new economy called the gig economy, all earning good monies with the skies the limit.
In 2023, more than 7.8 million departures for holidays were made by Singaporeans. In the 2024 NATAS travel fair, more than 120,000 people booked tours with most travel agencies experiencing more than a 30% increase in business.
During the pandemic in 2020, the median BTO price of a 4 room HDB was S$450,000 about the same as the peak in 2013. In Q3, 2024, the median resale price of a 4 room HDB is about S$680,000.
So, do we really have a cost-of-living problem in Singapore and has housing become unaffordable, these are the ‘noise’, misinformation and disinformation created by the opposition parties, is there really any truth to it? Obviously, not.
Think about it for a moment, if the cost of living is painful and housing is beyond affordability, then, why are there so many Singaporeans travelling, why are so many Singaporeans buying new cars, why are there so many Singaporeans buying higher priced BTOs, why are there so many Singaporeans prepared to pay more for HDB resale flats, why are there so many Singaporeans eating out at restaurants……….why, why, why?
Granted, the groups that need the most help are the bottom 20% and the elderly 15%, and I must say that our Government has done a lot for these two groups and will continue to do so.
“Whoever governs Singapore must have that iron in him. Or give it up. This is not a game of cards! This is your life and mine! I’ve spent a whole lifetime building this and as long as I’m in charge, nobody is going to knock it down.”
― Lee Kuan Yew
The truth is all of us have grown up in Singapore in the past 59 years, educated, knowledgeable, determined, work hard, work smart, all of us in our own way have developed our own ‘iron’ within us to help give ourselves a better life and to also contribute to Singapore. The baton will now be passed on to the Gen Ys and Gen Zs, who will have to chart out and carve out, the future for and the future of Singapore.
Nobody owes us a living, the only way to outrun the continuing rise in cost of living is to educate ourselves, value-add and be productive citizens of Singapore. Our Government has created the necessary infrastructure in the education system to fulfill our dreams of being professionals, and if we can’t, we can always pick up a skill. Our people need to be either educated or skilled, there is no place in Singapore for the unskilled.
Singapore 4.0
During one of PM, Lawrence Wong’s speeches in Parliament, he talked about Singapore’s future and that he wishes to see Singapore become a global innovation and technology country of excellence.
In the past near 6 decades, we have been doing well learning from the West, adopting and adapting for our own use in Singapore and we have been highly successful. We then, created Singapore Inc., and sold our expertise to our neighboring countries.
Singapore’s assets have always been its people, it was, it is, and it will always be, we have no natural resources, our natural resources are Singaporeans. We need to evolve for the future to create and innovate our own technologies that have global implications and international applications. Then, export these technologies to the West and the rest of the world. Singapore must become the global Silicon Valley; this is our future. This lead and challenge can only be undertaken by the energetic and creative minds of our Gen Ys and Gen Zs.
The Pioneer generation, the Merdeka generation and the Majulah generation have all contributed to build Singapore from an under-developed country to a developed and matured country. It is now time for the Gen Ys and Gen Zs to bring Singapore to new heights in the next 60 years.
RBA minutes came out this morning somewhat dovish and uncertain about whether the next rate decision will be up or down or flat. AUD took a hit!
I decided to buy a one month call option expiring on July 20th with the following details: –
Spot; 0.7375
Premium; 0.70
Breakeven; 0.7445
Let’s see……………..
I decided yesterday to buy a put option on the USDJPY with the following details: –
Strike: 111.13
Premium: 1.91
Breakeven: 109.22
Expiry: 10 August 2018
Felt that the USDJPY was overbought and that a retracement was due, more importantly, the 10 year treasury also signalled a possible retracement since it has a positive correlation with the USD.
This morning Asia time I decided to take profit on both the options with the following details: –
AUDUSD; sold at 0.7550, locking in a trading profit of 122bps.
USDJPY; sold at 109.20, lock in a trading profit of 0.76yen.
Not bad for a short trade!
Let’s see if we can identify another trade in the near future.
Uncertainty looming over the trade talks between Abe and Trump during Abe’s visit to the USA, Abe’s sliding popularity vote, Abe’s scandal, and the US 10 yield rising above 3%, all prompted me to feel that the yen will weaken in the near term.
So I decided to execute a 2 week call option, maturing on May 4th with the following details: –
Strike; 108.04, Premium; 0.40, Breakeven; 108.44
Let’s see.
On April 20th, I felt that the AUDUSD was peakish from a technical viewpoint. More importantly, was the recent media releases about the health of the banks and the fact that the property market in Australia is starting to slide.
I decided to take the opportunity to do a 2 week put option expiring on May 4th with the following details: –
Strike; 0.7722, Premium; 50bps, Breakeven; 0.7672
Let’s see.
After the majors ripped through the USD for a better part of January, I decided that it was about time the USD was oversold or too far beaten up, that it will shortly be time for a reversal.
I decided to buy three options as follows: –
USDJPY @ Call option expiring Friday, 2 March; strike at 108.83, premium at 1.10 and breakeven at 109.93
GBPUSD @ Put option expiring Friday, 2 March; strike 1.4313, premium of 150bps and breakeven at 1.4163
AUDUSD @ Put option expiring 16 February; strike 0.8113, premium of 72bps and breakeven at 0.8041
I sold off the GBPUSD put option at 1.3990 for a trading profit of 173bps.
I sold off the AUDUSD put option at 0.7790 for a trading profit of 251bps.
My USDJPY option is in trouble with spot at 107.15, the option may expire in early March worthless. In any case, at the time when I bought the option I was prepared to part with the option monies, so it’s ok.
More importantly, these three option trades clearly demonstrate that we can’t win all the time. What’s important is to follow and study the market, put our mark on it and wait for the market to come to us, however, we should always manage the risk parameters, if we don’t, chances of losing monies is imminent.
Now, I need to think about doing the reverse in the USDJPY, what do the rest of you think?
The Panthenon Investment Group 