We sold the put option at about 4:15pm Asian time on Friday at 0.9730 for a awesome 175bps profit or 1.80%.
Thank you Julia Gillard and Glen Stevens!
Category Archives: Trades
On 14 May 2013, when the world was waiting for Australia to announce their annual budget, we felt that they would probably announce a higher deficit than what market expects, although, there was alot of buzz during Asian trading time that the number was going to be big.
They market expected a deficit of A$14Bn and the final number was A$18Bn deficit.
AUD plunged.
We did a quick short of the AUDUSD at 0.9968 and squared at 0.9935 for a trading profit of 33 bps or 0.33%. Fortunately, we did as the AUDUSD rebounded back to 0.9990, after that it was all the way down.
Instead of staying glued to the screen, I decided to buy a put option at 0.9950 with a premium of 45bps, bring the BE to 0.9905, expiring on Friday, 17 May 2013.
Rumours that George Soros short the AUD through the option market last Monday, meant that he could have short the AUD at about 1.04, which means he is looking at a huge trading profit.
We decided to make a small bet today as we were not comfortable given that the AUD has weaken substantially from last week.
We made a quick bet and short the AUD at 1.0240 and squared the position at 1.0188 for a trading profit of 52bps or 0.51%.
We knew that the ECB rate decision was going to create volatility in the fx market. We were not sure whether we could catch the movement when the announcement came out.
Instead, we did a proxy by focusing on the AUDUSD, knowing that it will also react positively if the Euro was going to strengthen and it did.
We long the AUDUSD at 1.0225 and square the position at 1.0270, the high was 1.0283. We made a trading profit of 45 bps or 0.40%.
Yesterday, was a monumental day as it was the ECB rate decision day. Lots of media coverage of the event the whole week coming up to Thursday.
It was widely expected that Draghi will cut interest rates by 0.25% and he did, down to 0.50% from 0.75%.
The Euro was extremely volatile and we could not catch the upside, however, instead we positioned ourselves for a reversal and it happened when Draghi hinted that he may do a negative deposit rate if necessary.
We sold the EURUSD at 1.3200 and squared the position at 1.3100, it hit a low of 1.3040, then again, we can’t always catch the top nor catch the bottom.
We made a trading profit of 100bps or 0.75%.
At about 8:30pm to 9pm, we started seeing a beautiful technical set up indicated by Ichimoku, fast and slow stochastic s, so we short the EUR at 1.3074.
Later on, we squared the position at 1.2994 for a 80bps trading profit or 0.61%
Last Thursday, April 24th was the much awaited preliminary GDP numbers for Q1 2013 for the U.K.
After two consecutive quarters of negative growth, there was great expectation and anticipation in this number.
We felt that it was a market mover and place a spot trade at 1.5288 with a stop loss at 1.5258.
When the data came out positive 0.3%, the pound shot up to 1.5408 in 3 seconds!
We square the position at 1.5470 for a whopping 182bps trading profit or 1.19%.
The Euro has trended downwards rather nicely. The current spot of 1.2990 brings to our attention and interesting opportunity.
The lows was established on 13 November 2012 at 1.2698 and again in 2013 on 27 March 2013 t 1.2749. The high being 1.3709 established on 1 February 2013.
The current spot has not yet retraced the 50% 1.3173 from the November’s lows and barely retracing the 38.2% level of 1.3059, the chart below shows the sensitivity: –
And, it’s further away from the 38.2% of 1.3110 and 50% retracement of 1.3212 from the lows of 27 March: –
The 1 month call option strike at 1.2990 is 132bps or BE of 1.3123 and the 2 month call option is 184bps and BE of 1.3175. It appears that the 2 month option is more economical and also buys us more time to allow the Euro to recover and build up some steam.
We have executed the 2 month call option: – EURUSD, strike 1.2990, BE 1.3175, expiring 21 June 2013.
We long EURJPY at 129.00 and squared the position at 129.50 for a trading profit of 50bps or 0.38%.
We short AUDJPY at 101.90 and squared the position at 101.50 for a trading profit of 40bps or 0.39%.
We entered long AUDJPY later at 101.52 and squared the position at 101.80 for a trading profit of 28bps or 0.27%.
The Panthenon Investment Group 