The carnage on the USD started last Thursday and the three currencies that battered the USD the most was the GBP, EUR and the AUD.
The question is whether it was warranted or not, or was it simply a case of fund flows? Or did the market move against the USD because the BOE, ECB and RBA moved from an accommodating stance to a neutral stance? Is that enough to move the market so significantly? I do not believe so.
Personally, I expected the other central banks to move to a neutral stance, given that the Federal Reserve has already begun cutting back QE by two tranches of $10Bn each from $85Bn to now $65Bn.
Is there an opportunity for the USD to take back some ground from the majors? Yes, I believe so, and it has started today with the GBP giving back about 60bps so far. I should have captured this opportunity since I felt so strongly about it.
Unfortunately, I was taken away to focus on my private equity business in a company I invested that is involved in the tocotrienol business.
The Panthenon Investment Group 