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Tag Archives: Fed

21 Sep @ FOMC!

There is no way to gauge whether the Fed is going to be hawkish or dovish in this meeting, financial markets, Wall Street is quite divided in its views, which sets up a potential volatile event.

I decided to place my straddles with the following details: –

GBPUSD:  Stop if Offered at 1.3560, Spot at 1.3592, Stop if Bid at 1.3620

USDJPY: Stop if Offered at 111.00, Spot at 111.34, Stop if Bid at 111.60

AUDUSD: Stop if Offered at 0.8050, Spot at 0.8083, Stop if bid at 0.8110

As it turned out, the Fed is HAWKISH!

All my trades was triggered!

I squared all three trades as follows: –

AUDUSD: Squared at 0.8002 for a trading profit of 47bps

USDJPY: Squared at 112.23 for a trading profit of 0.65yen

GBPUSD: Squared at 1.3473 for a trading profit of 87bps

Not a bad FOMC outcome!!!

Fed D Day

I really did not know which way the market is going to move but there was enough buzz in the markeplace to generate sufficient volatility to do my straddle.

At about 1:56am Singapore time I decided to place two straddle trades with the following details: –

EURUSD; Stop if Offered 1.0600, Spot at 1.0630, Stop if Bid 1.0660

USDJPY; Stop if Offered 114.23, Spot 114.53, Stop if Bid 114.83

All SLs at 30bps away.

I decided to square the USDJPY 3 minutes after the announcement at 113.70 and the EURUSD 5 minutes later at 1.0690.

Trading profit of the USDJPY was 0.53yen and EURUSD 30bps.

Not too bad, was hoping for a bigger move, then again, we should be thankful for good and safe trading profits.

 

D Day – Decision Day for FOMC?!

The buzz in the media has started.  Some are saying that the FOMC event is fully priced in the marketplace and others are saying that high volatility is expected in this impending event.

Bernanke was interviewed last night and he was quoted saying that the Federal Reserve needs to entertain ‘negative interest rates’.

90% of all economists interviewed by Bloomberg and 95% of Wall Street all believe that Janet Yellen will pull the trigger at 3am Singapore time and 3pm NY time.

Will Janet pull out a surprise from her hat and not raise interest rates?!  She has every reason to raise interest rates and also every reason not to raise interest rates.

Wall Street is debating whether she is a traditional economist that needs empirical data to line up like the stars before she tightens monetary policy of will she act more from her ‘gut feel’ of where the economy is going.

The world today is different, inflation in many developed countries is almost non existent, way way below the 1% or low 1%.  We will not see 2% for a long time, simply because there is a real threat that the developed countries may go into a deflationary phase.  Oil below $40/- per barrel with fears that it will go to $20/- is unfounded.  The world was buzzing with strong economic growth in the late 90s and oil was at $20/- per barrel.  Demand will always be there no matter how much OPEC pumps out of the ground or Big Texas Oil.  The world has a fascination for the internal combustion engine for fast cars ,luxury cars and basic transportation.  Be it recession or not, people will fill up their petrol or diesel tanks and drive their vehicles proudly.

So why does a falling oil price be of such a concern?  Well, why did oil go up to $140/- per barrel in the first place?  I believe it was speculation, I believe it was more and more producers getting into the game and with high capex, they needed to sell it at the elevated prices, I believe it was oil sands or shale oil.  The cost of extracting oil went from $12/- per barrel to an average of $68/- per barrel.  Should Big Oil profiteer from the general public?

Real estate prices has been escalating in all developed countries from the UK to the US to Australia and Europe.  Every developed country is excluding food and real estate from the CPI basket, however, if you were to include real estate into the basket, then, we will not be looking at the current 1% inflation rate but something in the region of 10%.

So are we playing around with numbers?  Isn’t real estate or more appropriately, dwelling homes an important component to be included in the CPI basket as it affects the wallet of all consumers as in the ability to pay their mortgage payments and the fact that it is a long term financial commitment.

If we look at the EURUSD and the GBPUSD hourly charts with Fibonacci overlayed, it appears that the EUR is trading at its near high and GBP at its near bottom.

gbpusd_hourly

eurusd_hourly_fibo

If volatility is going to happen at the FOMC, will the two european currencies swing in opposite direction?

There so many permutations: –

Raise rates + dovish press conference

Raise rates + strong press conference

Rates stay put + dovish press conference

Rates stay put + strong press conference

In all 4 permutations, it can be argued for both a case of strong USD and a case for weak USD, why?  It is because the US is in a precarious economic position.  The truth is that the economy is not growing strong enough, moderate growth with some fragility, yes!

As time draws nearer, I am sure we will see more noise in the media.

17 Nov @ The FOMC Minutes!

Since the October FOMC rate decision did not come with a press conference, the entire financial markets was looking towards the minutes to garner an idea of what happened in the closed door meeting among the Fed governors and Yellen.

There was a fair amount of noise in the media though, it seemed somewhat muted.

In any case, I stayed up and at 2:55am, I placed the following trades: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5197   –   1.5217   –   1.5237

EURUSD   –   1.0618   –   1.0638   –   1.0658

USDJPY   –   123.27   –   123.47   –   123.67

As it turned out, the minutes lacked luster, rates did not move anywhere.

10 minutes after 3am, I decided to withdraw the three straddle trades.

What a disappointment!!!

 

Is the USD oversold??????????????

The carnage on the USD started last Thursday and the three currencies that battered the USD the most was the GBP, EUR and the AUD.

The question is whether it was warranted or not, or was it simply a case of fund flows?  Or did the market move against the USD because the BOE, ECB and RBA moved from an accommodating stance to a neutral stance?  Is that enough to move the market so significantly?  I do not believe so.

Personally, I expected the other central banks to move to a neutral stance, given that the Federal Reserve has already begun cutting back QE by two tranches of $10Bn each from $85Bn to now $65Bn.

Is there an opportunity for the USD to take back some ground from the majors?  Yes, I believe so, and it has started today with the GBP giving back about 60bps so far.  I should have captured this opportunity since I felt so strongly about it.

Unfortunately, I was taken away to focus on my private equity business in a company I invested that is involved in the tocotrienol business.

Post Bernanke………..gunz blazing…………markets still haemorrhaging………..

Was the FOMC statement and thereafter the press conference by Bernanke………..staged?!

Why was the FOMC statement so lethargic and uninspiring, and then, the monumental statement by Bernanke where he for the first time announced timelines for the tapering of the QE; beginning year end and into 2014 with full withdrawal by mid 2014.

Wow………what an aggressive statement by the Fed Chairman when all previous times, he was skirting the issue.  Of course, he tried to culture the statement by saying that it is all data dependent.  Kind of like shooting someone first and then saying, let’s send him to the hospital so that he may or may not have a chance to live.

What is interesting is that the Fed also decided to change their two loved targets of inflation and unemployment.  Previously, the Fed had definitive targets of 2% for inflation and 6% unemployment rate before triggering tapering QE.

Now, they have changed specific targets to range targets; inflation has changed to 1.4% to 2% and unemployment rate 6.5% to 7%.  Let’s not forget that inflation is now at 1.1% and unemployment at 7.6%, so we are not so far from the range targets.

Is the Federal Reserve orchestrating the imminent tapering of QE because they are now worried about the fact that liquidity is not sufficiently moving into the real economy but instead is fueling real estate, equities and bond markets.

If the last three days was not a taste of the carnage to happen when the first installment of the cut in QE happens in October, we will definitely see widespread bloodshed at that time.