I saw another quick opportunity based on technical analysis and shorted the AUDUSD at 0.9275 and squared at 0.9260.
Tag Archives: foreign exchange
Ok, time to update the last two trades I did in June. On 28 June 2013, Long AUDUSD at 0.9233 and squared at 0.9260.
The USD isn’t waiting for the nonfarm payroll numbers this friday, it has already staged a move against the majors.
USD moved against the EUR at 1am, dropped by 89bps.
USD moved against the GBP at 7:15pm, dropped 75bps.
USD moved against the JPY at 8:30pm, dropped by 89bps
USD moved against the AUD at 6;45pm, dropped by 29bps
So, it appears that the AUD has been the most resilient against the onslaught of the USD. Maybe the market if waiting for Governor Steven’s speech later this morning to get a confirmation of the RBA statement published earlier yesterday. You will recall; RBA held rates at 2.75%, felt that the drop in the AUD is helping the economy, feels that the economy is continuing to adjust to a different business model and less reliant on mining and resources, felt that housing is holding steady, felt that borrowing is coming back, and felt that there could be more room for currency to weaken which would help the economy
Quick scalp, long USDJPY at 0.9415 baed on fast and slow stochastic and squared at 0.9434 for a 19bps trading profit.
Both quiick scalps paid for today’s expenses.
Quick scalp, short AUDUSD at 0.9485 based on stochastic fast/slow and squared at 0.9460 for a 25bps trading profit.
I bought the GBPUSD at 1.5552 and squared at 1.5592 prior to the GDP announcement for a trading profit of 40bps or 0.25%.
I bought EURUSD at 1.3250 at about 9:18pm and squared later at 1.3275 for a trading profit of 25bps or 0.188%.
I saw another opportunity in the USDJPY and also tracking today’s session of Abenomic
I bought the USDJPY at 98.29, but after half an hour, I didn’t see the yen moving the way I saw it.
So I decided to square the trade at 98.34. It is now trading at 98.24.
This morning the technical analysis indicated a possible upside to the AUDUSD, so I bought at 0.9434.
Through the next 3 hours, it was pretty much flatline, I then, made the decision to cut loss at 0.9430 for a 4bps loss.
Guess what?
The AUDUSD is now trading at 0.9362.
I am of the view that the AUD has been trampled on too much and at the current level of 0.9525, could be an opportunity to place an option strategy.
The lows in the AUD: –
1 June 2013 – 0.9708
3 Oct 2012 – 0.9525
7 June 2010 – 0.8102
October 2008 – 0.6674
The above lows is to give us all a ‘feel’ the AUD.
I do not believe that the Aussie economy is worse off than back in 2008 to 2010.
From Black October, the AUD has powered from 0.6674 all the way up to 1.1075 in July 2011. During the crisis in both the United States and in Europe, the AUD has always been trading between 1.03 and 1.05 despite the declining economic health in China.
Yes, Australia is paying for it today by being to resources export dependent and to China. Today, Australia has a structural and fiscal problem, if appropriately fixed, the AUD should be well back above the parity level.
Currently, the weak AUD is helping the economy, making exports more competitive. What is comforting is that consumption is still healthy and housing is stable.
A few more months below parity and the benefits of the weaker AUD will filter into the economy. I do not believe there’s a need for RBA to further cut rates.
I am considering buying a call option when the volatility is lower.
The Panthenon Investment Group 