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Monthly Archives: May 2013

Why is the AUDUSD so resilient?

The AUDUSD took out the critical 0.9580 last support level and established a new low of 0.9539 which started me thinking is there a bottom to the AUD?

Then again, the AUD staged a great comeback by defending the low and is currently trading at 0.9665.  So, the real question here is, is the AUD going to go to 0.92 like what the street is saying?

I am not convinced.

I am going to undertake an analysis of the AUDUSD and share my thoughts with all of you next week.  Maybe, the time is near to do a long dated call option on the AUDUSD to capture the BIG move back up?  Possible?  Maybe?

 

Trade: LONG EURUSD at 1.2970 and squared at 1.3030

Today was critical day; preliminary GDP and unemployment claims.  My hunch told me that the numbers could be weak, so when the EURUSD was trading at about 1.2940 at 8:15am Eastern time, I decided to put in a LONG limit order at 1.2970 with a SL at 1.2950 if things were to go wrong.

When 8:30am rolled around; the GDP came in at 2.4% below forecast of 2.5%, and unemployment claims was higher at 354K versus expectations of 342K.

The EURUSD within 10minutes triggered by limit LONG order at 1.2970 and within the next hour it hit 1.3030 which was my take profit level.  We locked in trading profits of 60bps or 0.46%………..great trade!  Of course, it went to a high of 1.3060 an hour later, but then again, we can’t always buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

What’s important is to execute a prudent strategy.

Goodnight all, I am going to play golf tomorrow, so no trading for me.

Trade: on 23 May 2013, LONG EURUSD at 1.2845 and squared at 1.2900

Last Thursday, 23 May 2013, I went LONG EURUSD at 1.2845 immediately after the announcements of the various PMIs for Germany, France and Italy, they were all generally slight improvements.

Initially, market moved slightly, I felt it was good for a 4obps pop upwards, then, it started moving up to 1.2900, I put an order to square the position at 1.2900 and it was taken out as it went higher to 1.2908.   I locked in a trading profit of 55bps or 0.42%.

It went higher into NY trading session but I was at the time out for dinner.

Trade: LONG AUDUSD at 0.9637 and squared at 0.9670

I saw the fast and slow stochastic signalling a buy, so I went long at 0.9637 and squared the trade 5 mins ago at 0.9670 for a trading profit of 33bps or 0.34%.

Trade: Short AUDUSD at 0.9645 and squared at 0.9635

I was so bored, decided to do a quick scalp; short the AUDUSD at 0.9645 and squared the position at 0.9635 for a 10bps trading profit.

Update on 2 month EURUSD call option strike 1.2990, BE 1.3175 expiring 21 June 2013

Time for me to do an update on the 2 month EURUSD call option that I  did back on 24 April 2013.  My cost was 185bps and the breakeven was  1.3175, the current spot of 1.2895, appears to be still very far from my  levels.

There is a real possibility that I  may have made a wrong call on this one and then again, I  may not, it’s really hard to say right now.

The tide which was very bullish USD may be turning this week and we might see the return of the bulls for EUR, GBP and AUD.

Mid week is going to be critical, Wednesday is the release of the BOE’s policy minutes, and also Bernanke speak on that day.

Thursday is crucial as fresh numbers on the flash PMIs will be out.

Friday is when Draghi speaks.

My hunch tells me that we will see alot of action and volatility in the latter part of the week, favoring a weaking dollar.

Trade: Thank you AUD; Long AUDUSD at 0.9765 and squared at 0.9810

Good morning to all, just when I was lamenting about a lost opportunity in the AUD yesterday, I also knew that in the forex markets, another opportunity would present itself.

It did.

This morning.

I Long the AUDUSD at 0.9765 during Asian time after the release of the RBA minutes to ensure no curve balls.  In fact, when the RBA minutes came out AUD tanked to 0.9750, but I waited till the rebound happened and some stability was seen in the charts.  Then, I Long the AUDUSD at 0.8765 at about 9.35am and just squared the position at 0.9810 at 11:30am.

I made a trading profit of 45bps or 0.45%.

Thank you AUD!

CPI data for the GBP this afternoon at 4:30pm, I believe it will be a market mover………….let’s see.

Have a nice lunch you all.

Missed Opportunity: Long AUDUSD

Quiet day on the economic front, however, a feeling told me that the AUDUSD will move today and it did twice today.

The slow and fast stochastic including the ichimoku were spot on!

It happened once this morning at 9am from 0.9741 to 0.9784 and then again when London opened at 3pm at 0.9750 to 0.9789…………………..oh what a waste!

The trades were so so so sweet.  I am only to be blamed as I was too busy replying emails all day and missed it.

Oh well………..cie la vie………….the good thing about the forex market is that everyday is a trading opportunity, so there’s always tonight US time or tomorrow.

I am going to walk away from my screens for now and maybe come back when New York opens, and then, again maybe not, might just spend the monday night enjoying a good dinner with my wife.

Enjoy your Monday everyone.

Trade: Bought Put Option on the AUDUSD at 0.9950, BE at 0.9905 expiring 17 May 201

We sold the put option at about 4:15pm Asian time on Friday at 0.9730 for a awesome 175bps profit or 1.80%.

Thank you Julia Gillard and Glen Stevens!

Trade: Short AUDUSD at 0.9968 and squared at 0.9935 on 14 May 2013

On 14 May 2013, when the world was waiting for Australia to announce their annual budget, we felt that they would probably announce a higher deficit than what market expects, although, there was alot of buzz during Asian trading time that the number was going to be big.

They market expected a deficit of A$14Bn and the final number was A$18Bn deficit.

AUD plunged.

We did a quick  short of the AUDUSD at 0.9968 and squared at 0.9935 for a trading profit of 33 bps or 0.33%.  Fortunately, we did as the AUDUSD rebounded back to 0.9990, after that it was all the way down.

Instead of staying glued to the screen, I decided to buy a  put option at 0.9950 with a premium of 45bps, bring the BE to 0.9905, expiring on Friday, 17 May 2013.