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Monthly Archives: September 2016

29 September 2016; Thank you Kuroda!

I strongly believed that Kuroda was going to talk a weaker yen, unfortunately, his speech was rather neutral and political.

When he says that the BOJ is comfortable for inflation to shoot past 2%, I mean it must be a joke right. Inflation is so benign in Japan, shooting past a target that is so far away is RIDICULOUS! It would be so different if Kuroda said that they would adjust CPI to 1.5% and then, let it over shoot.  If USA has adjusted CPI downwards, why not Japan?????

Today QE in Japan is about 400 trillion yen or about 80% of nominal GDP…………hmmmmmm………..that is scary!!!!!!!

This can only mean a WEAKER YEN.

Anyway, coming up to Kuroda’s speech, yen was weakening from 100.8 in Asia morning to 101.70 by 2pm.

I decided to square my position at 101.70 for a trading profit of 1.54 yen!!!!!!! Yummy!!!!!!

27 September 2016; Long USDJPY at 100.22

Last night at about 9pm, when USDJPY slid back near the 100 level, I decided to go Long again on the USDJPY at 100.22.

So now, I have two tranches; one at 100.1o and another at 100.22 with an average cost of 100.16.

Let’s see.

27 September 2016; Sell USDJPY at 100.95

Yesterday afternoon when USDJPY rose to near 101, I decided to square off half the position at 100.95 for a trading profit of 0.85 yen.  Not bad for less than 24 hours.

22 September 2016: Long USDJPY at 100.10

When I woke up, I realized that the USDJPY had collapsed from 102.7 down to the 100 level.

So being true to my call on the USDJPY, I went long at 100.10.

Today is September 28th.

I was out playing a charity golf on Friday and then dinner, so pretty much was out of the market, however, I noticed the USDJPY recovered back up to 101.23 on Friday morning.  A missed opportunity to square off the trade.

On Tuesday, September 27th, USDJPY came back off to the 100 level and I went long again at 100.10 doubling my position but on a cash basis.

 

6 September 2016; US – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI

As the Fed continues to eyeball the US economy both from the manufacturing as well as the services sectors for growth and job creation, tonight’s ISM Non-manufacturing PMI would be an important data to look out for.

I decided to put on my straddle with the following details at 9:55pm: –

EURUSD  –  Stop if Offered; 1.1130, Spot at 1.1162, Stop if Bid; 1.1190, with corresponding SLs at 1.1150 adn 1.1170

USDJPY  –  Stop if Offered; 102.90, Spot at 1o3.26, Stop if Bid; 103.40, with corresponding SLs at 103.10 and 103.10

The data came out softer at 51.4 versus expectations of 55.4

Major grinded upwards against the dollar.  Both my trades was triggered.

I squared the positions as follows: –

USDJPY at 102.17 for a trading profit of 0.73 yen.

EURUSD at 1.1243 for a trading profit of 53bps.

All in all, not too bad, can’t complain.

2 September 2016; NFP

Alot of noise today about the NFP, most banks forecasting a lower number than expectations of 180K, except for Barclays who is bullish at 200K.

History dictated that August was an inaccurate month, with numbers usually lower than forecast 8 out of the past 11 years with more than 50% adjustments later.

I decided to do my straddle on both the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –

EURUSD; Stop if Bid at 1.1240, Spot at 1.1280, SL at 1.1220

USDJPY; Stop if Bid at 103.10, Spot at 103.45, SL at 103.30

As it turned out the NFP was 150K versus forecast of 180K, unemployment inched up to 4.9% versus 4.8%, average hourly earnings was slightly softer at 0.1% versus 0.2% and labor productivity was significantly lower at -0.3% versus 0.2%.

The USD moved higher against the majors initially, but seemed to lack the legs.

Both my trades was triggered, unfortunately, there didn’t seem to be much of a follow through as financial markets digested the data and probably felt that it was relatively unexciting.

I decided to square of my trades as follow; USDJPY at 103.00 and EURUSD at 1.1230.  I am pretty much ALL SQUARE……..no blood!

What a disappointing night, should have gone out partying!!!  Hahahahahaha…….only joking, as professional traders, if there is a trading opportunity we must be in front of the screen, we need to be there, to hopefully, capture the market opportunity.

Done for the week!

Here’s wishing everyone a great weekend.

USDJPY; has more legs to go………….

After, Yellen’s comments last Friday at Jackson Hole and the subsequent correction in the majors against the USD, I feel levels are now more reasonable reflecting the relative economic health of the countries. However, I believe, the GBP and JPY have more downside adjustment to be made.

Take a look at the 4H USDJPY, the JPY is now just under the 38.2% level, I believe there is more room for the JPY to weaken.

4H usdjpy

1 Sept 2016; UK Mfg PMI

After Brexit, any data that can give an inclination to the economic health of the UK would be important.  This afternoon, the UK Manufacturing PMI would be one these important indicator.

Markets was expecting 49.1 slightly better than previous month of 48.2.

I put my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered; 1.3120, Spot at; 1.3146, Spot if Bid; 1.3170

Corresponding stop losses at 25 bps away.

As it turned out, the number came in very strong at 53.3 which took markets by surprise, the GBP spiked up at triggered my Bid trade at 1.3170.

I squared my trade at 1.3242 for a trading profit of 72bps.  Not too bad for the first day of September.

The spot is now 1.3250.