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Tag Archives: call option

I believe Draghi is going to starting reining in QE as he kind of hinted in his last press conference.

However, because of the Brexit, French elections, Greece and Italy, I can’t help thinking that he might end up also being alittle dovish.

So in truth, I believe he can go either way, but the volatility on the upside seem to be higher than the down side.

I decided to execute a double down call and put option spread with the following details: –

Spot; 1.0905

Call option; BE; 1.0948 with 43bps premium

Put Option; BE; 1.0879 with 26 bps premium

Total premiums; 69bps.

Let’s see what happens. I believe whatever happens tonight will translate into market action over the next few days.

It doesn’t help that it’s a long weekend upcoming up.

 

Volatility is low, so it’s increasingly more difficult to do intra day spot trades.

I felt the timing was more appropriate for options so decided to execute the following options: –

1 Month GBPUSD Put Option – Strike at Spot 1.2565, premium at 129bps and BE at 1.2436

1 Month USDJPY Call Option – Strike at Spot 108.85, premium at 1.43yen and BE at 110.29

Let’s see what happens.

I decided not to exit the call option on Friday thinking that it would go higher, but by the time I came back from a late dinner, USDJPY had come back down from 113.70 to about 113.30.

I decided to place a take profit level at 114.00 just in case it bounced back up on Monday morning during Aussie early session.

When I woke up this morning to cook breakfast for my wife, I didn’t pay any attention to the FX rates, but later on, I received an sms from Goldman Sachs informing me that my take profit level was hit at 114.00, in fact, the high was 114.13.

The call option was sold at 114.00 and the resulting trading profit was 0.95yen……not bad!

Now, I still have another outstanding USDJPY call option, however, I have time till mid March.

The FX markets has proven to be most unpredictable.  On the March 22nd, I felt strongly that the USD was oversold and the charts seem to indicate it, however, after Yellen’s speech at the NY Economic Club, the USD was killed.

All the majors rallied against the USD and in fact, made new highs for 2016.  This was more disheartening, however, I was fortunate in that I played the potential opportunity while waiting for the market to come to me by way of options.  Therefore, I have accepted my absolute losses which was the premiums I paid for the options upfront.

I have been hearing from the banks and on the ground that many FX clients have been caught on the wrong foot.  Worse still though the USD has made back some gains, the JPY went against the rest of the majors by strengthening against the USD.  Can you imagine that the JPY has moved 5 big figures since the last week of March?!

Anyway, when I started seeing the USD gain back ground against the majors I decided to sell of two of my outstanding options; the GBPUSD Put Option and the AUDUSD Call Option.

On April 6th after London opened, the GBP was aggressive sold off, I decided not to wait again like I did two weeks and so decided to sell the put option at 1.4030 for a trading profit of 252bps (breakeven was 1.4282), option originally expiring on April 29th.

On March 31st after NY opened, the AUD continued climbing up against the USD, I put in an order to sell the call option at 0.7700 and it got triggered, locking in a trading profit of 280bps, call option had an expiry date of July 9th.

While the trades turned out in my favor it was not without days and weeks of disbelief that my call was potentially wrong, but instead of waiting closer to expiry, I decided not to star a gift horse n the face, so take profit on the options.

As you can see, the risk reward ratio wasn’t great, on average about 1:1.  A better trade would be 2:1 or higher.  Anyway, I am just glad to be out.

Now I still have three outstanding put options; EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD which are not in the money and we are going into the second week of April.  I have some time left and let’s hope the market moves in my favor.

 

You will recall that I was a strong believer in the AUD and the Australian so much so that I bought two large call options.

The first with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7015

Premium: 288bps

Breakeven: 0.7303

Expiring 26 August 2016

I decided not to stare good fortune in the face and sold the option at 0.7603 for a 300bps trading profit.

Though the absolute amount of the trading profit is nice at US$5.4Million, from a risk reward ratio of near 1:1 (as the option cost me US$5Million), it wasn’t exactly a good trade.

However, I was not about to continue waiting for the Australia economy, I have somewhat lost faith in its rebalancing and rejuvenation away from mining.

The remaining AUDUSD call option expiring 9 July 2016 has a breakeven of 0.7420, I will take a chance and keep this option as I still have time on my side and who knows, maybe, some of the private banks are correct when they are forecasting AUDUSD at 0.7900 within the next 3 months.

If you recall, I executed an AUDUSD call option on July 8th expiring Nov 27th with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7390

Strike: ATM

Premium: 200bps

Breakeven: 0.7590

The high on November 27th was 0.7234.

Oh well, you can’t win them all.  I still have two other AUDUSD call option expiring in July and August 2016.

I decided to add on to my position when the AUDUSD came off some more, with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7015

Premium: 288bps

Breakeven: 0.7303

Expiry: 26 August 2016

I am still a strong believer in the Australia economy and the Aussie Dollar.  I believe the economy will turn around next year and that the current levels will be a thing of the past.

I decided to buy a plain vanilla call option, strike ATM spot with the following details: –

Spot 0.7140

Premium: 280

Breakeven: 0.7420

Expiry: 29 July 2016

Thanks to China, my AUDUSD call option expiry this Friday, August 28th will be worth nothing and I have basically lost my premium of US$3Million.

No wait a second, I didn’t.  Apologies for the silence the last two days as you can well appreciate the financial markets, that is, the equity markets and the fx markets were crazy.

Given, all the bad news coming out from China; devaluing the renminbi, slowest growth in the past 5 years, PBOC cut interest rates twice and then again today, no short selling on 500 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, lowering bank reserve ratios, buying less raw materials such as metals and ores, lowest exports in the past 4 years……………..all these pointed to China going down South!

This means SELL SELL SELL SELL AUDUSD!

So, silly me decided to be brave and stupid and chase the market, but of course with stop losses as well.

The deterioration in the AUD since last Friday from 0.7353 and downwards…………

The drop off the cliff on Monday at about 9pm Asia time, gapped from 0.7232 down to 0.7032, then, stabilising at 0.7142 and went back up to a high of 0.7232, right back where it started.

Last night, at about 8:50pm, my Ichimoku told me to sell the AUD, after cutting up and down two times within the last 24 hours, so I short the AUD at 0.7207.  By 2am in the morning, the AUD has fallen to 0.7157.  I decided to take profit and go to sleep for a trading profit of $1.25Million or 50bps on a nominal size of $25oMM.

So, I have now improved my call option losses from $3MM to a lower $1.75MM.  You really can’t win all the time………life!

The real issue now is where do we go from here?  Do we look at shorting the GBP and the EUR?  Well, let me share my thoughts with you in my next article on ‘Thoughts’.

I also have a thought provoking view that a conspiracy was started by China to encourage if not compel Janet Yellen from raising interest rates next month.  Again, I will share my thoughts with you soon, so stay tune.

After the AUDUSD went down again below 0.7300, I felt that there might be a short term retracement, so I decided to buy a one month call option expiring 28 August with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7275

Strike: 0.7300

Premium: 100bps

Breakeven: 0.7375

Let’s see what happens