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Daily Archives: November 9th, 2013

Wow……….wow…………wow………..the EUR and GBP collapsed!

I squared the two put options; one on the EURUSD and the other on the GBPUSD as follows: –

GBPUSD; BE 1.6107 and sold the option at 1.5966 for a trading profit of 144bps

EURUSD; BE 1.3713 and sold the option at 1.3518 for a trading profit of 196bps

I must confess that was really a lucky trade.  I did these two short dated option trades because I was only comfortable to give up so much for the premiums just in case I was totally wrong.

The ADP came out weak, Chicago PMI came out strong, Bernanke was neutral, I also truly couldn’t explain the big drop in the majors except to say that I was lucky.

These two trades were totally predicated on looking at technicals; Ichimoku, Stochastics and Bollinger bands, it all pointed to a oversold USD.  More importantly, I was prepared to gamble away the option premiums, however, I reduced my exposure to the premiums by shortening my tenor and also reducing the nominal trade size.

I decided on October 30th to buy some overnight options or 2 day options as I was going out to play golf the next day.

The options bought was: –

EURUSD Put Option; Spt 1.3765, BE 1.3713, Premium 52bps

GBPUSD Put Option; Spt 1.6054, BE 1.6107, Premium 53bps

The above trades were to play up to the ADP, more importantly, to potentially capture FOMC.

For the month of September, I did a total of 9 trades; 5 spot trades and 4 options.  I lost on one option and won on the rest.

What is important to bear in mind is that options is a great way to minimize your loss upfront and psychologically accept the cost or loss prior to executing the trade.  In other words, I made the decision on my risk appetite and was prepared to gamble away US$8,800 in premium cost of the GBPUSD Put Option.

Nett of the loss of the option trade which was a negative 8.8%, our nett absolute performance for the month of September was 51%.  Adding this on to our total absolute performance currently standing at 199.1%, bring the total absolute performance to 250.1% year to date.

Some of you may or may not yet have asked me the question as to how and why I measure my performance on an absolute basis rather than an accumulative basis?  An accumulative return distorts the overall return when one is making good monthly returns, the base ends up being larger and larger and then, the return for the on going month becomes smaller relative to the larger base, even though in absolute terms, the monthly return achieved could be considerable.

Absolute returns are more realistic, I set aside my principal monies or collateral in account X and then, I deposit my profits or debit my losses from a separate account Y.  My absolute returns is simply profits or losses for the month divided by X expressed as a percentage and then adding it on or subtracting from Y.  Y would be the total aggregate net profits divided by X expressed as a percentage.  In other words, if US$100,000 is my X and I have a value of US$200,000 in Y, then my absolute return is 200%.

I trust the explanation clarifies any queries you may have.


On September 27th, I saw a scalping opportunity in the AUDUSD, so I short the AUDUSD at 0.9358.

However, as I continued to observe the technicals, the push down didn’t seem convincing, so I decided to square the position at 0.9335 for a meager 23bps trading profit.