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Daily Archives: November 19th, 2013

I had to leave my trading desk this evening, but felt that the EURUSD was going to move up somewhat, based on my technical analysis; Ichimoku and possible better ZEW Economic Sentiment at 6pm (Singapore time).

So at about 5pm, I bought a small position, one day call option on the EURUSD expiring November 20th; Spot: 1.3515, Premium: 28bps and Breakeven: 1.3543.

Unfortunately, the ZEW Economic Sentiment came out lower than forecast at 60.2 versus 63.1, more importantly, is that the German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out flat at forecast of 54.6, so still staying above the 50 threshold level.  What is more important is the counterbalancing stronger Germany versus the rest of the weaker Euroland.

EURUSD has stayed in a narrow range since issuance of data between 1.3491 and 1.3519.  Let’s see if my trade fairs better tomorrow, we still have time till NY 10am.

I decided to square off this option prior to my leaving for my holiday.

Last Wednesday, the AUDUSD continued to fall and it went under 0.9300, I sold the option at 0.9285, you will recall that my breakeven was 0.9533, so this trade gave us a nice trading profit of 248bps.

So, while I was targeting for a 1.6:1 payout, we were fortunate and managed to secure a payout of over 2.4:1, this was a great trade.

What is ironical about the fx world is when I was away on my holiday, on November 21st and 22nd, the AUD dropped another 100bps to 0.9143………..hahahahahahahaha.

Then again, who can predict that the AUD will collapse again so near the expiry date, I certainly did not.  More importantly, I would not carry any open positions when I am away on a holiday.

Hi Everyone,

Sorry for the radio license the past week.  I took a short holiday from Thursday, November 14th to Monday, November 18th with my wife to R & R.

You know, my gut was telling me that Janet Yellen would wave the flag of QE accommodation during her speech last Thursday night (Singapore time).  However, it doesn’t matter as I was on holiday and wanted to TOTALLY switch off from any trading.

I will update you shortly on what I did on the AUD Put Option expiring November 22nd and a short call option done on the EURUSD today.