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Monthly Archives: February 2017

2016 Absolute Performance

2016 was clearly an interesting year for all traders; Russia, China, Brexit and the US elections.  It certainly provided us with alot of volatility, however, what was difficult at times was that the volatility was irrational and we couldn’t make sense of it.

The year was driven by what central bankers were saying, politicians sparring and the rise of populism.

We executed a total number of 56 trades and withdrew 22 trades.

We now have an audited absolute return of 117.28%.  Although, it is significantly lower than the 178% we achieved in 2015, we are still higher than our long term absolute return objective of 88%.

13 Feb 2017;squared USDJPY call option

I decided not to exit the call option on Friday thinking that it would go higher, but by the time I came back from a late dinner, USDJPY had come back down from 113.70 to about 113.30.

I decided to place a take profit level at 114.00 just in case it bounced back up on Monday morning during Aussie early session.

When I woke up this morning to cook breakfast for my wife, I didn’t pay any attention to the FX rates, but later on, I received an sms from Goldman Sachs informing me that my take profit level was hit at 114.00, in fact, the high was 114.13.

The call option was sold at 114.00 and the resulting trading profit was 0.95yen……not bad!

Now, I still have another outstanding USDJPY call option, however, I have time till mid March.

6 Feb 2017; 1 week USDJPY call option expiring 17 Feb 2017

When US markets opened, USDJPY looked like it was bottoming out.

USDJPY in the past week created a three leg bottom at around 112.20, does it mean that we can potentially see a short term breakout upwards?

I decided to buy a short dated USDJPY call option expiring on Friday, February 17th with the following details: – Strike at Spot; 112.13, Premium 1.0, Breakeven; 113.13.

Now I have two Long call options on the USDJPY.

Let’s see.

1 Feb 2017; UK Mfg PMI

Ever since, Brexit has been looming over the UK, all data attributed to manufacturing and services has been on the radar screen.

This evening was the UK Mfg PMI.  I didn’t really know which way it was going to swing, but I could sense that it would be a weaker data, so I placed a one leg straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.2566, SL at 1.2586 and Spot at 1.2589.

The data came our flat at 55.9 same as forecast, GBPUSD hardly moved, so I withdrew the straddle trade.

 

2 Feb 2017; 1 mth USDJPY Call Option

When I saw the yen strengthened so much yesterday, I decided to do the opposite by buying a 1 month call option with the following details:-

Strike at spot; 112.35, Premium; 1.54, Breakeven 113.90, expiring 6 March 2017.

Let’s see