Spot currently at 112.71.
Looks like my put option expiring tomorrow will expire worthless and will take a hit of 1.03yen, the cost of the option.
Oh well, we win some and we lose some…………that is FX trading………….
Monthly Archives: September 2017
There is no way to gauge whether the Fed is going to be hawkish or dovish in this meeting, financial markets, Wall Street is quite divided in its views, which sets up a potential volatile event.
I decided to place my straddles with the following details: –
GBPUSD: Stop if Offered at 1.3560, Spot at 1.3592, Stop if Bid at 1.3620
USDJPY: Stop if Offered at 111.00, Spot at 111.34, Stop if Bid at 111.60
AUDUSD: Stop if Offered at 0.8050, Spot at 0.8083, Stop if bid at 0.8110
As it turned out, the Fed is HAWKISH!
All my trades was triggered!
I squared all three trades as follows: –
AUDUSD: Squared at 0.8002 for a trading profit of 47bps
USDJPY: Squared at 112.23 for a trading profit of 0.65yen
GBPUSD: Squared at 1.3473 for a trading profit of 87bps
Not a bad FOMC outcome!!!
This data is usually a market mover for the GBPUSD since it’s largely a services economy. However, with the FOMC just less than 24 hours away, I wasn’t sure whether the GBP would move or not.
In any case, just in case it moves, I decided to put on my straddle with the following details: –
Stop if Offered at 1.3470, Spot at 1.3512, Stop if Bid at 1.3540
Corresponding SLs at spot.
As it turned out, the Retail Sales came in at 1.0 versus forecast of 0.2. GBP spiked upwards and triggered my stop if bid leg.
I waited till it hit 1.3600 and I decided to square the trade for a trading profit of 60bps.
GBPUSD is now trending at 1.3582.
Whew…………….what a quickie………….all in 4 minutes! Hehehehehehehehe
The GBPUSD is going crazy, it’s now at 1.3530!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t believe in the strength of the GBPUSD, so I am buying another GBPUSD put option with the following details:-
Expiry date: Friday, Oct 6th
Strike at spot: 1.3530
Premium: 110bps
Breakeven: 1.3420
My average breakeven for 4 put options is now: 1.3260.
Let’s see!!!!
This morning Aussie time, I decided to buy another put option on the GBPUSD with the following details: –
Strike: 1.3400
Premium: 110bps
Breakeven: 1.3290
Average of three put options now: 1.3206
Bought another put option since the GBPUSD spiked up more than 100bps.
Strike at spot of 1.3340
Premium: 110
Breakeven: 1.3230
Now my average breakeven is 1.3165
Let’s see.
At 6:50pm, I placed my straddle trade with the following details: –
Stop if Offered at 1.3170, Spot at 1.3204, Stop if Bid at 1.3230
Correspondingly SLs at spot.
As it turned out, interest rate was kept on hold, so was the asset purchase.
Votes was the same at 7-2.
I suppose the financial markets took the two differeing votes as another constant from the last rate decision and concluded that it means the BOE is on firmer ground, I don’t know.
However, the GBP strengthened, triggering my Stop if Bid.
I squared the trade at 1.3333 for a trading profit of 103bps.
Thank you BOE or should I say, thank you High Street and Wall Street!
Based on 4H chart, it seems that GBPUSD has completed three waves and is on the way down?!
I decided to but a put option for 3 weeks expiring on Friday, October 6th with the following details: –
Strike: 1.3210
Premium: 112bps
Breakeven: 1.3098
Let’s see what happens?! I am managing this option risk through a small size trade.
The 4H chart seems to indicate a potential triple top; 110.88 – 110.58 and currently 110.50.
I decided to execute a two week put option expiring Friday, Sept 29th with the following details: –
Strike: 110.50
Premium: 1.03
Breakeven: 109.47
Target: 108.20
Let’s see what happens?!
Believing that today’s data could also move the GBP, I decided to put in my straddle with the following details: –
Stop if Offered 1.3280, Spot 1.3312, Stop if Bid 1.3240
As it turned out, unemployment was lower, claimant count was lower and average earnings index was lower……………..does that all mean BOE may tighten monetary policy?
In the meantime, my stop if offered leg was triggered, but market wasn’t moving, it was gyrating between 1.3275 and 1.3285.
So I decided to square the position at 1.3275………….ALL SQUARE.
The Panthenon Investment Group 