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Tag Archives: Unemployment Rate

One of those much looked at economic data for the UK since it is a services economy.

I decided to place my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3175, Spot at 1.3197, Stop if Bid at 1.3215

Data came out mixed; claimant count was done, but job creation was poor, unemployment rate held constant at 4.3% and average weekly earnings edge upwards.

Market initially stayed quiet not knowing what to make of it and then it started selling off the GBP, I suppose the market took issue with the poor employment change or job creation data.

It triggered my Stop if Offered leg and I follow the market till I felt there was no more steam so I decided to square the trade at 1.3140 for a trading profit of 35bps.

Ok lah……….not too bad for the start of trading this week after coming back from a driving holiday in Malaysia…………… and drink.

Believing that today’s data could also move the GBP, I decided to put in my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3280, Spot 1.3312, Stop if Bid 1.3240

As it turned out, unemployment was lower, claimant count was lower and average earnings index was lower……………..does that all mean BOE may tighten monetary policy?

In the meantime, my stop if offered leg was triggered, but market wasn’t moving, it was gyrating between 1.3275 and 1.3285.

So I decided to square the position at 1.3275………….ALL SQUARE.

This week has been a sleepy week despite important events like ECB, manufacturing data, ADP and of course, tonight, NFP?!

Since there weren’t any trading opportunities throughout the week, it would stand to reason that the FX markets would be ‘itchy’ to create a movement if a sufficient reason was given.

Today’s NFP to cap off a lacklustre week or is it?

Anyway, we had to be there, so at 8:28pm, I put in my trade as follows: –

EURSUD: Stop if Offered; 1.1125, Spot; 1.1154 and Stop if Bid; 1.1180 with corresponding SLs at 30bps away on both sides of the goal posts.

As it turned out, NFP came out at a shocking 38K versus forecast of 159K, with alittle offsetting by unemployment rate at 4.7% verusus 4.9%

My Bid trade was triggered at 1.1180 and I waited till about 5 minutes later and squared at 1.1260 for a trading profit of 80bps……….not bad!

Thank you NFP!!!

Everyone have a great weekend!

I am out of here and going to take my wife out to meet friends for drinks.

The entire market was looking out for non farm payrolls as an indication that the Fed’s decision was an appropriate one.

Alot of buzz in the media with estimates from 160K to 285K and an extreme one at 100K.

At about 9:22pm, I put in my straddle trade with the following details: –

Short EURUSD   –   Spot 1.0863, Stop if Offered 1.0840 and SL 1.0860

Long GBPUSD   –   Spot 1.4588, Stop if Bid 1.4620 and SL 1.4600

As it turned out, NFP came in a whopping 292K against expectations of 203K.  More importantly, previous month’s 211K was not revised.

This means jobs are well supported in the U.S. even during the lean months of the winter.

My EURUSD was triggered and I withdrew the GBPUSD order.

I squared the EURUSD at 1.0803 for a trading profit of 37bps, was expecting a bigger spike since EUR has been rallying the past two trading days.  Oh well, ok for the first trade in 2016!

Here’s wishing one and all a great trading year in 2016.

I will be wrapping up 2015’s performance shortly and also sharing my thoughts for this year.

Every country is looking at economic growth, labour, CPI and unemployment.  Australia is no different.

So at 8:23am, I put on my straddle with the following details: –

AUDUSD   0.7045   –   0.7065   –   0.7085 with spot at 0.7065 and SLs at spot

Employment came out whopping strong at 58K vs 15K forecast and unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% from 6.2%.

The AUD spiked up triggering my stop if bid order at 0.7085.  I sold half the position at 0.7140 and keeping the other half till Asia opens and clients starting coming in in the mid morning.

Unfortunately, the AUD didn’t really move very much more, so I closed the other half of the trade at about 10:30am at 0.7145.

Trading profits was 55bps and 60bps for an average of 57.5bps on $100Mn trade size.

I was wondering the past 48 hours why there wasn’t any noise in the media about the UK Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate since BOE, Carney is focusing on raising interest rates next year and not wanting to fall behind the U.S.

I decided to put on my straddle at 4:25pm as follows: –

GBPUSD  –  1.5285   –   1.5315   –   1.5345

When the data came out it was self cancelling because the Claimant Count was slightly higher but the unemployment rate improved.

GBP hardly moved, so I took out the trade.