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6 September 2016; US – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI

As the Fed continues to eyeball the US economy both from the manufacturing as well as the services sectors for growth and job creation, tonight’s ISM Non-manufacturing PMI would be an important data to look out for.

I decided to put on my straddle with the following details at 9:55pm: –

EURUSD  –  Stop if Offered; 1.1130, Spot at 1.1162, Stop if Bid; 1.1190, with corresponding SLs at 1.1150 adn 1.1170

USDJPY  –  Stop if Offered; 102.90, Spot at 1o3.26, Stop if Bid; 103.40, with corresponding SLs at 103.10 and 103.10

The data came out softer at 51.4 versus expectations of 55.4

Major grinded upwards against the dollar.  Both my trades was triggered.

I squared the positions as follows: –

USDJPY at 102.17 for a trading profit of 0.73 yen.

EURUSD at 1.1243 for a trading profit of 53bps.

All in all, not too bad, can’t complain.

2 September 2016; NFP

Alot of noise today about the NFP, most banks forecasting a lower number than expectations of 180K, except for Barclays who is bullish at 200K.

History dictated that August was an inaccurate month, with numbers usually lower than forecast 8 out of the past 11 years with more than 50% adjustments later.

I decided to do my straddle on both the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –

EURUSD; Stop if Bid at 1.1240, Spot at 1.1280, SL at 1.1220

USDJPY; Stop if Bid at 103.10, Spot at 103.45, SL at 103.30

As it turned out the NFP was 150K versus forecast of 180K, unemployment inched up to 4.9% versus 4.8%, average hourly earnings was slightly softer at 0.1% versus 0.2% and labor productivity was significantly lower at -0.3% versus 0.2%.

The USD moved higher against the majors initially, but seemed to lack the legs.

Both my trades was triggered, unfortunately, there didn’t seem to be much of a follow through as financial markets digested the data and probably felt that it was relatively unexciting.

I decided to square of my trades as follow; USDJPY at 103.00 and EURUSD at 1.1230.  I am pretty much ALL SQUARE……..no blood!

What a disappointing night, should have gone out partying!!!  Hahahahahaha…….only joking, as professional traders, if there is a trading opportunity we must be in front of the screen, we need to be there, to hopefully, capture the market opportunity.

Done for the week!

Here’s wishing everyone a great weekend.

USDJPY; has more legs to go………….

After, Yellen’s comments last Friday at Jackson Hole and the subsequent correction in the majors against the USD, I feel levels are now more reasonable reflecting the relative economic health of the countries. However, I believe, the GBP and JPY have more downside adjustment to be made.

Take a look at the 4H USDJPY, the JPY is now just under the 38.2% level, I believe there is more room for the JPY to weaken.

4H usdjpy

1 Sept 2016; UK Mfg PMI

After Brexit, any data that can give an inclination to the economic health of the UK would be important.  This afternoon, the UK Manufacturing PMI would be one these important indicator.

Markets was expecting 49.1 slightly better than previous month of 48.2.

I put my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered; 1.3120, Spot at; 1.3146, Spot if Bid; 1.3170

Corresponding stop losses at 25 bps away.

As it turned out, the number came in very strong at 53.3 which took markets by surprise, the GBP spiked up at triggered my Bid trade at 1.3170.

I squared my trade at 1.3242 for a trading profit of 72bps.  Not too bad for the first day of September.

The spot is now 1.3250.

26 August 2016; Long USDJPY at 100.12

During the first 15 minutes of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, she seemed to suggest that the Fed wasn’t yet prepared to hike rates. Yen strengthened to near 100 and I decided to Long USDJPY at 100.12 cash position.

Later on, the floor fell out from under our feet when Janet said that the case to raise interest rates is getting stronger as the US economy approaches the central banks’ goals.

Then, it was USD bulls across all the majors.

USDJPY hit a high of 101.29, but I squared my position at 101.12 for a nice round figure of 1 yen trading profit.  Thank you Janet Yellen.

Looks like NFP will be on the radar screen next week.

Here’s wishing everyone a great weekend.

23 August 2016; Long USDJPY at 99.99 cash position

Yesterday afternoon presented another opportunity when USDJPY dipped below 100.00 to a low of 99.92.

Continuing to believe in my view of trading USDJPY between 100 and 102, I decided to Long USDJPY at 99.99 on a cash trade, that is, no leverage.

Just five minutes ago at 11:35pm Singapore time I squared the position at 100.53 for a trading profit of 0.54 yen.  Again not bad for a low controlled risk trade.

Maybe the next time I will do a leverage trade.

22 August 2016; Squared USDJPY cash position at 100.80

Woke up the previous morning to see that USDJPY tried to break 101 in the last hour of US session, hitting a high of 100.84.

Then it came down to 100.25 and recovered to 100.65 when I turned on the computer at 10:15am.

I followed the price action till about 2pm in the afternoon Asia time where it hit a high of 100.89 then started coming off, so I decided to square my cash position at 100.80, for a trading profit of 0.85 yen.  Not a bad trade.

The thing now is whether or not there is a case to short USDJPY whenever it hits near 101 or 102???

18 August 2016; Bought again cash position; Long USDJPY @ 99.75

Well, today in Asia time, the USDJPY kind of scared the market by dipping below 100 to a low of about 99.64.

I still believe in my call on Long USDJPY any time it hits 100.  So I added another cash position Long USDJPY at 99.75 adding onto the existing position at 100.15, giving me an average of 99.95.

Let’s see.

18 August 2016: UK Retail Sales

I wasn’t about to put on a straddle trade for this economic data, instead, I kind of made up my mind to chase the market if the data came out strong.

My gut feel tells me that the data would be somewhat muted.  Guess what, it came out strong at 1.4% versus expectations of 0.1%.  I immediately jumped in at 1.3125 and rode the market up and decided to square my trade at 1.3167 for a trading profit of 42bps.

Not too bad for a quickie!

Now are we going to see any action tonight in the US; Philly Fed Mfg Index and Unemployment Claims?

16 August 2016: Long USDJPY

Looks like it’s yen bulls again today, from 101.24 Asia morning, it’s now 100.18.

The fast and slow stochastics were also trending below the 20 percentile level.

True to my view, I executed a fresh cash position; Long USDJPY at 100.15.

Let’s see where this takes us.