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12 Sep @ UK CPI

Felt that this would be a mover, so decided to put on my straddle just before release of data with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3170, Spot 1.3200, Stop if Bid 1.3230

As it turned out, CPI shot up to 2.9% against forecast of 2.8%, core CPI at 2.7% against forecast of 2.5%, PPI elevated to 0.4% from 0.1%.

GBP strengthened and triggered by Stop if Bid level.

I squared half the position at 1.3255 for a trading profit of 25bps and squared the balance at 1.3270 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Not a bad start after not trading for over a month.

Next is Claimant count and then BOE decision

AUDUSD put options expired……….worthless

The two AUDUSD put options caused me premiums of 65bps.

You win some you lose some.

The lesson learnt this time around, is that when dynamics change, it is important to take two steps backwards to study the changing dynamics and to ascertain whether the goalposts are changing or have changed and why?

UK CPI

Knowing that GBPUSD always move earlier than the time of data announcement, I decided to put my straddle earlier at 4pm.

All central banks are looking at tightening monetary policy and therefore CPI is going to be closely looked at as an indication of inflation.

My straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered; 1.3080, Spot; 1.3115, Stop if Bid; 1.3145

As it turned out CPI came in weaker at 2.6% versus forecast of 2.9%.

My Stop if Offered was triggered.

It’s 4:37pm and I just squared my position at 1.3025 for a trading profit of 55bps.

Not bad, thank you GBPUSD, at least, I managed to make back for some of the losses on the EURUSD put option and USDJPY call option.

More trading opportunities this week when ECB is front and centre

 

EURUSD put option expired on July 17th…….worthless

Lost 36bps on the premiums paid for the EURUSD put option which expired on July 17th……….worthless.

USDJPY call option expired on July 17th…..worthless

The USDJPY call option expired on July 17th………..worthless.

Premium loss was 0.48yen.

Bought another AUDUSD Put Option expiring on Friday, July 21st

Decided to average out with another AUDUSD put option expiring on Friday, July 21st with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7745, Premium: 30bps Breakeven: 0.7715.

Average AUDUSD now at 0.7705.

Let’s see

Bought 1 week AUDUSD put option expiring Friday, July 21st

Felt that AUDUSD was getting too high and at levels where it should not be, so I decided to buy a put option for 1 week expiring Friday, July 21st with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7730, Premium: 35bps, Breakeven: 0.7695.

Let’s see.

2 week EURUSD put option bought on July 5th and expiring July 14th

This particular call has turned out to be wrong and it looks like I will be taking a loss of 50bps as there will be no way that EURUSD will fall below 1.1270 within the next 3 days.

Oh well, you win some, and you lose some, that is FX trading for all of us.

Squared off EURUSD Put Option last night

Was following the Yellen speech last night and wasn’t convinced that it was a bullish speech, so I decided to sell the option last night at 1.1400 for a small trading profit of 49bps.

Bought a USDJPY call option expiring Monday, July 17th

Bought a USDJPY call option expiring on Monday, July 17th with the following details: –

Spot: 113.25, Premium: 0.48, Breakeven: 113.73.

Let’s see what happens?!