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Tag Archives: CPI

12 Sep @ UK CPI

Felt that this would be a mover, so decided to put on my straddle just before release of data with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3170, Spot 1.3200, Stop if Bid 1.3230

As it turned out, CPI shot up to 2.9% against forecast of 2.8%, core CPI at 2.7% against forecast of 2.5%, PPI elevated to 0.4% from 0.1%.

GBP strengthened and triggered by Stop if Bid level.

I squared half the position at 1.3255 for a trading profit of 25bps and squared the balance at 1.3270 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Not a bad start after not trading for over a month.

Next is Claimant count and then BOE decision

UK CPI

Knowing that GBPUSD always move earlier than the time of data announcement, I decided to put my straddle earlier at 4pm.

All central banks are looking at tightening monetary policy and therefore CPI is going to be closely looked at as an indication of inflation.

My straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered; 1.3080, Spot; 1.3115, Stop if Bid; 1.3145

As it turned out CPI came in weaker at 2.6% versus forecast of 2.9%.

My Stop if Offered was triggered.

It’s 4:37pm and I just squared my position at 1.3025 for a trading profit of 55bps.

Not bad, thank you GBPUSD, at least, I managed to make back for some of the losses on the EURUSD put option and USDJPY call option.

More trading opportunities this week when ECB is front and centre

 

US; CPI, Retail Sales

FOMC is fixated on inflation and jobs creation and early this evening was the US; Retail Sales and CPI, which I felt would be a highly volatile event data.

So at about 8:14pm, I decided to put on my straddle on the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –

EURUSD

Stop if Offered at 1.1170, Spot at 1.1202, Stop if Bid at 1.1230

USDJPY

Stop if Offered 109.90, Spot at 110.28, Stop if Bid at 110.58

SLs all established at 30bps away.

As it turned out CPI and Retail Sales bombed!

Both my EURUSD and USDJPY were triggered.

I followed the market till about 11pm and decided to square off my positions as follows: –

EURUSD squared at 1.1276

USDJPY squared at 108.97

Trading profit; USDJPY = 0.93yen and EURUSD = 46bps

Not bad, if I may say so myself.

GBPUSD

The straddle that was executed was triggered on the offered side and it almost got triggered on the bid side as well, thankfully.

However, the CPI, RPI and PPI data was mixed including the trade balance and the GBPUSD reflected it with a lack of momentum on the downside.

I decided to take profit at 1.2875 for a trading profit of 33bps.

Short AUDUSD

2017 will be the year most OECD countries will be looking at inflation as a gauge of economic growth.

Today was Australia’s turn on CPI, forecast was 0.7%.

I decided to place a straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 0.7565 (SL at 0.7585), Spot at 0.7595, Stop if Bid at 0.76230 (SL at 0.7595)

As it turned out I was surprised at the lower CPI number of 0.5% and with trimmed figures at 0.4%.  I wasn’t suspecting this to happen as I believe inflation is running alittle wild in Australia.

Nonetheless, my Stop if Offered was triggered at 0.7565 and I squared the position at 0.7540 for a trading profit of 25bps.

Australia quarterly CPI………….a trading opportunity

This morning 9:30am Singapore time was the Aussie CPI quarterly numbers.  This time around, the CPI is important to support what is going on in the economy; rising real estate prices, rising food prices, rising wages.  Forecasters was expecting 0.3% for the quarter.

I decided to place my straddle trade at 9:27am with the following details: –

AUDUSD   –   Stop if Offered; 0.7728, Spot at 0.7758, Stop if Bid; 0.7788 with corresponding SLs at 30bps away

As it turned out the CPI came in NEGATIVE at (0.2)%, it surprised me too!

Immediately the AUD tanked, triggering my Stop if Offered at 0.7728, the initial drop was 88bps down to 0.7670, then, it began to pick up more momentum.  At about 1:42pm the spot level was at 0.7633 and I decided to square the position to lock in my trading profits of 95bps.

It’s 2:40pm Singapore time now, and the spot is at 0.7614.

So the total move from the spot at 0.7758 to now is 144bps!  So you see, a significant data event and one that financial markets has been talking up to create volatility coming into the data, usually will react violently if the data was significantly different from expectations.

This afternoon is UK quarterly GDP, are we going to see any surprises.  Lately, economic data coming out of the UK has been dismal except for the continuing rise in real estate prices.

The 4H + Fibo indicates that the current spot level is at the 50% level.

The 1H + Fibo indicates that the currenct spot level is at the 100% level.

So it looks like any negative surprise to the GDP data could easily cause the GBP to tank?!

Let’s all the be there later.

17 Nov @ UK; CPI, PPI, RPI

As the UK is also squarely looking at recovery and growth, data such as CPI, PPI and RPI becomes relevant on the radar screen.  CPI, PPI and RPI was schedule at 5:30pm Asia time.

I didn’t observe that much noise in the media but since it is a relevant data, I decided to place my straddle trade at 5:24pm with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5147   –   1.5167   –   1.5187

Spot was at 1.5167 and SLs at spot, Stop if Bid at 1.5187 and Stop if Offered at 1.5147

As it turned out CPI moved up slightly and market didn’t seem interested so at 6:18pm, I decided to square the position at 1.5210 for a trading profit of 23bps.

15 October @ US CPI and Jobless Claims

As this is a sensitive data for the Fed and the world, I decided to put on my straddle on three currencies as follows: –

EURUSD   –   1.1416   1.1436   -1.1456

GBPUSD   –   1.5427   1.5457   1.5497

USDJPY   –   117.90   –   118.26   –   118.56

Core CPI was slightly elevated, overall CPI was flat, jobless claims improved to 255K against forecast of 269K, and Empire state manufacturing came was weaker at -11.4 versus expectation of -7.3.

Overall, USD bias, but the market didn’t move very much.  I took out the GBPUSD order, leaving behind the EUR and JPY order.

Both the EUR and JPY orders were triggered on the Offered side.

I squared the EUR at 1.1370 and the JPY at 118.70 for a trading profit of 46bps for the EUR and a negligible 0.14 yen.

This is what I mean when the event or data is not expected to make the fx market volatile, this strategy of the straddle trade doesn’t really work well.  It needs the volatility.

13 October 2015 – UK CPI data

CPI data for the UK is a hot data on the radar screen because BOE, Carney is watching CPI, GDP, employment, housing prices, etc in his decision to raise interest rates next year.

At 4:25pm, I decided to put my straddle trade on the GBPUSD as follows: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5300   –   1.5325   –   1.5350

Spot rate was 1.5325.

I squared the trade at 1.5245 for a trading profit of 55bps.  Not bad for half an hour’s work.