Skip navigation

Tag Archives: eurusd

Fed D Day

I really did not know which way the market is going to move but there was enough buzz in the markeplace to generate sufficient volatility to do my straddle.

At about 1:56am Singapore time I decided to place two straddle trades with the following details: –

EURUSD; Stop if Offered 1.0600, Spot at 1.0630, Stop if Bid 1.0660

USDJPY; Stop if Offered 114.23, Spot 114.53, Stop if Bid 114.83

All SLs at 30bps away.

I decided to square the USDJPY 3 minutes after the announcement at 113.70 and the EURUSD 5 minutes later at 1.0690.

Trading profit of the USDJPY was 0.53yen and EURUSD 30bps.

Not too bad, was hoping for a bigger move, then again, we should be thankful for good and safe trading profits.

 

5 Dec 2016; Long EURUSD, Long USDJPY

Long EURUSD at 1.0586 and squared at 1.0645 for a trading profit of 59bps.

Long USDJPY at 113.57 and squared at 114.14 for a trading profit of 57yen

1 Dec 2016; Long EURUSD and Short USDJPY

Long EURUSD at 1.0595 and squared at 1.0620 for a trading profit of 25bps.

Short USDJPY at 114.25 and squared at 113.95 for a trading profit of 30yen.

30 Nov 2016; Short EURUSD

Short EURUSD at 1.0634 and squared at 1.0598 for a trading profit of 36bps.

29 Nov 2016; Long EURUSD

Long EURUSD at 1.0595 and squared at 1.0653 for a trading profit of 58bps.

6 September 2016; US – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI

As the Fed continues to eyeball the US economy both from the manufacturing as well as the services sectors for growth and job creation, tonight’s ISM Non-manufacturing PMI would be an important data to look out for.

I decided to put on my straddle with the following details at 9:55pm: –

EURUSD  –  Stop if Offered; 1.1130, Spot at 1.1162, Stop if Bid; 1.1190, with corresponding SLs at 1.1150 adn 1.1170

USDJPY  –  Stop if Offered; 102.90, Spot at 1o3.26, Stop if Bid; 103.40, with corresponding SLs at 103.10 and 103.10

The data came out softer at 51.4 versus expectations of 55.4

Major grinded upwards against the dollar.  Both my trades was triggered.

I squared the positions as follows: –

USDJPY at 102.17 for a trading profit of 0.73 yen.

EURUSD at 1.1243 for a trading profit of 53bps.

All in all, not too bad, can’t complain.

2 September 2016; NFP

Alot of noise today about the NFP, most banks forecasting a lower number than expectations of 180K, except for Barclays who is bullish at 200K.

History dictated that August was an inaccurate month, with numbers usually lower than forecast 8 out of the past 11 years with more than 50% adjustments later.

I decided to do my straddle on both the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –

EURUSD; Stop if Bid at 1.1240, Spot at 1.1280, SL at 1.1220

USDJPY; Stop if Bid at 103.10, Spot at 103.45, SL at 103.30

As it turned out the NFP was 150K versus forecast of 180K, unemployment inched up to 4.9% versus 4.8%, average hourly earnings was slightly softer at 0.1% versus 0.2% and labor productivity was significantly lower at -0.3% versus 0.2%.

The USD moved higher against the majors initially, but seemed to lack the legs.

Both my trades was triggered, unfortunately, there didn’t seem to be much of a follow through as financial markets digested the data and probably felt that it was relatively unexciting.

I decided to square of my trades as follow; USDJPY at 103.00 and EURUSD at 1.1230.  I am pretty much ALL SQUARE……..no blood!

What a disappointing night, should have gone out partying!!!  Hahahahahaha…….only joking, as professional traders, if there is a trading opportunity we must be in front of the screen, we need to be there, to hopefully, capture the market opportunity.

Done for the week!

Here’s wishing everyone a great weekend.

NFP

Even though ADP earlier in the week came in on the money, that is, 179K versus forecast of 171K, there was still an off chance that NFP today could come in stronger than forecast.  Then again, it’s the summer and usually there are more job creations during this period.

I decided to put my straddle trade on the EURUSD and USDJPY at about 8:26pm with the following details: –

EURUSD   –  Stop if Offered at 1.1108, Spot at 1.1138, Stop if Bid at 1.1168 and corresponding SLs at 30bps out.

USDJPY   –  Stop if Offered at 100.80, Spot at 101.18, Stop if Bid at 101.48 and corresponding SLs at 30bps out.

As it turned out, NFP came in very strong at 255K versus expectations of 180K.

Both my trades was triggered.

I squared the EURUSD at 1.1048 for a trading profit of 60bps.

I squared the USDJPY at 101.82 for a trading profit of 0.34.

A pretty good end to the first week of trading in August.

It’s TGIF and I am going to shut down my computer and go meet some friends for drinks!!!

Here’s wishing one and all a great weekend.

EURUSD……is the floor reached and rebound imminent?

4H_eurusd

The EURUSD is showing an interesting pattern. Certainly compared to the GBP, it has shown more resilience.  I believe it’s because the EU has less problems and issues compared to the UK.

It seems to be creating a floor at 1.0980.

This week’s european PMIs came out steady and upbeat. I believe all we need is to see more positive growth news coming out of EU and the EURUSD should easily jump back up to 1.1388.

If ADP for the US comes out weak, it may just provide the impetus for the EUR to be bidded upwards, of course, the big move will come tomorrow during the non farm payroll numbers.

It’s looking interesting???!!!

3 June @ NFP!!!!!

This week has been a sleepy week despite important events like ECB, manufacturing data, ADP and of course, tonight, NFP?!

Since there weren’t any trading opportunities throughout the week, it would stand to reason that the FX markets would be ‘itchy’ to create a movement if a sufficient reason was given.

Today’s NFP to cap off a lacklustre week or is it?

Anyway, we had to be there, so at 8:28pm, I put in my trade as follows: –

EURSUD: Stop if Offered; 1.1125, Spot; 1.1154 and Stop if Bid; 1.1180 with corresponding SLs at 30bps away on both sides of the goal posts.

As it turned out, NFP came out at a shocking 38K versus forecast of 159K, with alittle offsetting by unemployment rate at 4.7% verusus 4.9%

My Bid trade was triggered at 1.1180 and I waited till about 5 minutes later and squared at 1.1260 for a trading profit of 80bps……….not bad!

Thank you NFP!!!

Everyone have a great weekend!

I am out of here and going to take my wife out to meet friends for drinks.