I bought the GBPUSD at 1.5552 and squared at 1.5592 prior to the GDP announcement for a trading profit of 40bps or 0.25%.
Tag Archives: forex
I bought EURUSD at 1.3250 at about 9:18pm and squared later at 1.3275 for a trading profit of 25bps or 0.188%.
I saw another opportunity in the USDJPY and also tracking today’s session of Abenomic
I bought the USDJPY at 98.29, but after half an hour, I didn’t see the yen moving the way I saw it.
So I decided to square the trade at 98.34. It is now trading at 98.24.
This morning the technical analysis indicated a possible upside to the AUDUSD, so I bought at 0.9434.
Through the next 3 hours, it was pretty much flatline, I then, made the decision to cut loss at 0.9430 for a 4bps loss.
Guess what?
The AUDUSD is now trading at 0.9362.
I am of the view that the AUD has been trampled on too much and at the current level of 0.9525, could be an opportunity to place an option strategy.
The lows in the AUD: –
1 June 2013 – 0.9708
3 Oct 2012 – 0.9525
7 June 2010 – 0.8102
October 2008 – 0.6674
The above lows is to give us all a ‘feel’ the AUD.
I do not believe that the Aussie economy is worse off than back in 2008 to 2010.
From Black October, the AUD has powered from 0.6674 all the way up to 1.1075 in July 2011. During the crisis in both the United States and in Europe, the AUD has always been trading between 1.03 and 1.05 despite the declining economic health in China.
Yes, Australia is paying for it today by being to resources export dependent and to China. Today, Australia has a structural and fiscal problem, if appropriately fixed, the AUD should be well back above the parity level.
Currently, the weak AUD is helping the economy, making exports more competitive. What is comforting is that consumption is still healthy and housing is stable.
A few more months below parity and the benefits of the weaker AUD will filter into the economy. I do not believe there’s a need for RBA to further cut rates.
I am considering buying a call option when the volatility is lower.
What a surprise, just when I thought I was going to have to write off this option.
I am truly puzzled, Draghi’s speech last night was not encouraging nor negative, no reason for the EUR to surge upwards like a bat out of hell.
The big move happened during lunch time NY session, which hints to me that it was stop losses, options, and program trading that triggered the EUR and moved it upwards.
I have no confidence in the Eurozone and I feel that it has do to more if the Eurozone is to recover from its recession.
Therefore, I have made the decision to sell the option at 1.3260 this morning and locked in profits of 85bps or 0.64%.
What do I think of the above data?
I believe the data will disappoint, but it may not have a big impact in the marketplace as the EUR and GBP have already retraced to the 61.8% level.
Upside will be limited, however, if the data comes in strong, then, the downside risk is much higher.
Although, I feel and believe the data will disappoint, however, purely from the risk and reward ratio, if the data surprises on the upside, then, the meltdown in the EUR and GBP will be big.
So, I may put on a contrarian trade and place a sell limit order on the EUR and GBP. Maybe, instead of placing two orders, just do a cross, that is, EURGBP.
Anyway, we still have another 3 hours before the data is out and more time to access the opportunity.
Following from my thoughts for the GBPUSD earlier, I went ahead to place a buy limit order at 1.5330, SL at 1.5310, while spot was at 1.5302.
UK Services PMI came out very strong at 54.9 versus expectations of 53.1. Immediately, the GBP spiked up triggering my limit order, I followed the spike till I saw the stochastic peaked and sold at 1.5370, the high was 1.5371, it is now trading at 1.5356.
Locked in a yum yum trading profit of 40bps or 0.26%.
This morning at about 1130am Abe was caught saying to the press that he will SLAY the DEFLATION MONSTER and do everything to implement fiscal and monetary policies to achieve this objective.
I decided to quickly short the USDJPY at 100.24 and when the market responded, I took profit at 99.80, it went to a low of 99.43. Nonetheless, I made a tidy profit of 44bps or 0.44%.
What do I do???
Looking at the chart it appears that the current spot is at about the 50% retracement level between the high of 1.5581 and the low of 1.5023 established in the month of May.
This means that the GBP can literally swing either way, depending on the PMI data. I believe the data will outbeat the forecast of 53.1. The past 3 months has been showing an uptrend and there’s no reason to be otherwise.
Checked the option, to buy a call option till this Friday seems rather expensive at 68bps. So it looks like I may have to place a limit buy order or maybe, even a spread order, that is to buy and to sell the GBP.
The Panthenon Investment Group 