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Tag Archives: UK

Post Brexit………………what a mess!!!!!!!

I am glad David Cameron resigned as PM, he clearly didn’t get the confidence vote that he needed to keep the UK in the EU, so there’s no point in staying on, the people how silly as they have made their decision.

This made me reflect on Singapore.  As a Singaporean, I was quite concerned in the 2011 general elections when PAP won by an average of about 56%+, which was not great by Singapore standards, but a clear signal from the electorate that the people of Singapore were not happy with PAP.

I am so glad and encouraged that PAP, our government, my government, paid attention, took heed and spent the next few years engaging Singaporeans; by and large solving and resolving a number of pressing issues.  This culminated in PAP’s surprising victory in the 2015 elections with an average win of nearly 69%.

England, I am no longer referring to the UK anymore, because I believe the UK is gone!  If we trace back in history, the 18th century was the glory days of England and the UK.  It was the greatest empire in the world, ever since, then, England has been carving a downward path till today.

Though it would have been largely beneficial for the UK to stay in the EU, history tends to repeat itself, so the Brits again have made a poor decision which seals their fate and another negative chapter in the history of England.

Watch the world as it unfolds, Scotland will leave the UK and strike up its own deal with the EU.  North Ireland may join up with the rest of Ireland, and then, strike a deal with the EU.  Wales will also probably leave the UK, leaving the UK to just merely England.  That is what is going to happen, mark my words, it will all unfold in the next 5 years to 7 years.

England has lost everything, it no longer has a manufacturing base, all its brands are now owned by foreigners, up to 1/3 of the liquidity in the financial markets has been moved to Dubai, up to 45% of its exports is attributed to the EU, it has no innovation, it has no invention.

The only thing going for it is that it’s a services economy and that has been eroding the past few years and with Brexit, the pace will pick up.

So, all that is left is England an education centre, a financial markets centre and a strong pharmaceuticals industry.

How is England going to feed 46Million people in an environment where the country has matured and is greying, coupled with low growth, low productivity, burdensome welfare system, far too much burden on the shoulders of the young British people.

Scary!!!

27 Nov; UK est GDP

Was there at the market to potentially capture this opportunity if the data came out much different from forecast.

Place a OTM stop if bid trade with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5056   –   1.5075 with spot at 1.5056 and SL at 1.5065

Data came out as per expectations at 0.5%.

I withdrew the trade……………….so so boring!

17 Nov @ UK; CPI, PPI, RPI

As the UK is also squarely looking at recovery and growth, data such as CPI, PPI and RPI becomes relevant on the radar screen.  CPI, PPI and RPI was schedule at 5:30pm Asia time.

I didn’t observe that much noise in the media but since it is a relevant data, I decided to place my straddle trade at 5:24pm with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5147   –   1.5167   –   1.5187

Spot was at 1.5167 and SLs at spot, Stop if Bid at 1.5187 and Stop if Offered at 1.5147

As it turned out CPI moved up slightly and market didn’t seem interested so at 6:18pm, I decided to square the position at 1.5210 for a trading profit of 23bps.

27 October @ UK Q3 preliminary GDP

Moral of the story is not to trade at 6am in the morning NY time and also when one has not had the chance to check the noise in the media.

I am currently in New York by the invitation of Goldman Sachs for a week.

I knew yesterday there was the UK Q3 GDP number coming out.  However, I didn’t know whether the media has been drumming up the impending event or not.

Nonethless, at about 6am NY time,  I decided to put on my straddle trade with the following details: –

 

GBPUSD   –   1.5320   –   1.5340   –   1.5360

Spot was at 1.5340

As it turned out the GDP number was weak, however ,the market didn’t really move that much.  Well, it did move enough to trigger my bid if offered trade at 1.5320 and then after that, it started moving back up, so before I could be stopped out at 1.5340, I decided to square off the trade at 1.5328 for a 8bps trading loss.

Moral of the story is don’t trade when one has not had the time to catch up with the noise in the media.  I am in NY since Monday and will be returning to Singapore on Saturday.

Later today, will be Janet Yellen’s time, what will she do?

13 October 2015 – UK CPI data

CPI data for the UK is a hot data on the radar screen because BOE, Carney is watching CPI, GDP, employment, housing prices, etc in his decision to raise interest rates next year.

At 4:25pm, I decided to put my straddle trade on the GBPUSD as follows: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5300   –   1.5325   –   1.5350

Spot rate was 1.5325.

I squared the trade at 1.5245 for a trading profit of 55bps.  Not bad for half an hour’s work.

UK Services PMI

The UK economy has been wavering back and forth with no strong solid trend.  I felt that today’s UK Services PMI could be a telling sign as to where the economy will be heading and potentially a volatile data event.

So at about 4:25pm, I did a straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Bid: 1.5300

Spot: 1.5263

Stop if Offered: 1.5230

When the data came out at 4:30pm, it was weaker at 55.6 compared to expectations of 57.6, unfortunately, the the GBP didn’t really dip that much, it went to a low of 1.5238 and rebounded.  It didn’t trigger my trade, so I decided to pull the trade out.

It’s now 9:20pm and the GBP is holding at 1.5264.  So in hindsight it was prudent to pull out the trade, as nothing really happened going into early NY session.

I guess the world is more focused on tonight’s ECB and Mario Draghi!!!

UK; Claimant Count and Unemployment

GBPUSD has been trending upwards the past week, while the EURUSD has been going the opposite direction.

I don’t believe the GBPUSD is sustainable and any negative economic data will see a significant reversal.

This time around will be a triple top; once on May 14th, another on May 22nd. Near this year’s high of 1.5780 on May 14th, happened once this year.

I am going to take a punt and do a OTM put trade: –

GBPUSD  –  Spot 1.5662; Stop if Offered at 1.5640 and SL at 1.5660

Let’s see what happens in the next few mins.

Trade: GBPUSD Buy Limit at 1.5330, Spot at 1.5302, squared at 1.5370

Following from my thoughts for the GBPUSD earlier, I went ahead to place a buy limit order at 1.5330, SL at 1.5310, while spot was at 1.5302.

UK Services PMI came out very strong at 54.9 versus expectations of 53.1.  Immediately, the GBP spiked up triggering my limit order, I followed the spike till I saw the stochastic peaked and sold at 1.5370, the high was 1.5371, it is now trading at 1.5356.

Locked in a yum yum trading profit of 40bps or 0.26%.