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Tag Archives: gbpusd

20 Sept @ UK Retail Sales

This data is usually a market mover for the GBPUSD since it’s largely a services economy. However, with the FOMC just less than 24 hours away, I wasn’t sure whether the GBP would move or not.

In any case, just in case it moves, I decided to put on my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3470, Spot at 1.3512, Stop if Bid at 1.3540

Corresponding SLs at spot.

As it turned out, the Retail Sales came in at 1.0 versus forecast of 0.2.  GBP spiked upwards and triggered my stop if bid leg.

I waited till it hit 1.3600 and I decided to square the trade for a trading profit of 60bps.

GBPUSD is now trending at 1.3582.

Whew…………….what a quickie………….all in 4 minutes!  Hehehehehehehehe

Bought the 4th GBPUSD Put Option expiring Oct 6th

The GBPUSD is going crazy, it’s now at 1.3530!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don’t believe in the strength of the GBPUSD, so I am buying another GBPUSD put option with the following details:-

Expiry date: Friday, Oct 6th

Strike at spot: 1.3530

Premium: 110bps

Breakeven: 1.3420

My average breakeven for 4 put options is now: 1.3260.

Let’s see!!!!

GBPUSD @ 3 week put option expiring Oct 6th, 3 option

This morning Aussie time, I decided to buy another put option on the GBPUSD with the following details: –

Strike: 1.3400

Premium: 110bps

Breakeven: 1.3290

Average of three put options now: 1.3206

GBPUSD @ 3 week put option expiring Firday, Oct 6th

Bought another put option since the GBPUSD spiked up more than 100bps.

Strike at spot of 1.3340

Premium: 110

Breakeven: 1.3230

Now my average breakeven is 1.3165

Let’s see.

Sept 14th @ BOE Rate Decision

At 6:50pm, I placed my straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Offered at 1.3170, Spot at 1.3204, Stop if Bid at 1.3230

Correspondingly SLs at spot.

As it turned out, interest rate was kept on hold, so was the asset purchase.

Votes was the same at 7-2.

I suppose the financial markets took the two differeing votes as another constant from the last rate decision and concluded that it means the BOE is on firmer ground, I don’t know.

However, the GBP strengthened, triggering my Stop if Bid.

I squared the trade at 1.3333 for a trading profit of 103bps.

Thank you BOE or should I say, thank you High Street and Wall Street!

GBPUSD @ 3 week put option expiring, Friday Oct 6th

Based on 4H chart, it seems that GBPUSD has completed three waves and is on the way down?!

I decided to but a put option for 3 weeks expiring on Friday, October 6th with the following details: –

Strike: 1.3210

Premium: 112bps

Breakeven: 1.3098

Let’s see what happens?!  I am managing this option risk through a small size trade.

13 Sept @ UK Claimant count and Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings Index

Believing that today’s data could also move the GBP, I decided to put in my straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3280, Spot 1.3312, Stop if Bid 1.3240

As it turned out, unemployment was lower, claimant count was lower and average earnings index was lower……………..does that all mean BOE may tighten monetary policy?

In the meantime, my stop if offered leg was triggered, but market wasn’t moving, it was gyrating between 1.3275 and 1.3285.

So I decided to square the position at 1.3275………….ALL SQUARE.

12 Sep @ UK CPI

Felt that this would be a mover, so decided to put on my straddle just before release of data with the following details: –

Stop if Offered 1.3170, Spot 1.3200, Stop if Bid 1.3230

As it turned out, CPI shot up to 2.9% against forecast of 2.8%, core CPI at 2.7% against forecast of 2.5%, PPI elevated to 0.4% from 0.1%.

GBP strengthened and triggered by Stop if Bid level.

I squared half the position at 1.3255 for a trading profit of 25bps and squared the balance at 1.3270 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Not a bad start after not trading for over a month.

Next is Claimant count and then BOE decision

UK CPI

Knowing that GBPUSD always move earlier than the time of data announcement, I decided to put my straddle earlier at 4pm.

All central banks are looking at tightening monetary policy and therefore CPI is going to be closely looked at as an indication of inflation.

My straddle with the following details: –

Stop if Offered; 1.3080, Spot; 1.3115, Stop if Bid; 1.3145

As it turned out CPI came in weaker at 2.6% versus forecast of 2.9%.

My Stop if Offered was triggered.

It’s 4:37pm and I just squared my position at 1.3025 for a trading profit of 55bps.

Not bad, thank you GBPUSD, at least, I managed to make back for some of the losses on the EURUSD put option and USDJPY call option.

More trading opportunities this week when ECB is front and centre

 

Squared GBPUSD

GBPUSD doesn’t seem to be making any appreciable move upwards, so I decided to square off my Long GBPUSD at 1.2900 for a decent trading profit of 62bps.