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Tag Archives: gbpusd

Trade done on 21 May @ UK Retail Sales

Did a GBPUSD trade hoping to catch some action on the release of the UK retail sales.  UK and BOE looking at economy closely; housing prices, retail sales, and services PMI are data that will be volatile.

I decided to do a straddle: –

GBPUSD  –  Spot at 1.5600, Long Stop if Bid at 1.5625 and Short Stop if Offered at 1.5575.

The data came out in favour of the UK at 1.2% stronger than forecast of 0.4%.

However, the GBP didn’t really move that much, so I squared the position at 1.5660 for a trading profit of 35bps.

5 June @ Non farm payroll?!

Given that the Federal Reserve is poised at raising interest rates this year as stated by Janet Yellen, clearly, all eyes are on employment data, GDP growth and consumption.

Today’s non farm payroll numbers is strong or weak will be a market mover.  Wednesday’s ADP was an indication though a marginal one.

I decided to place my bets on a strong non farm payroll number and did a stop if offered sell EURUSD and GBPUSD with the following at 8:20pm: –

EURUSD  –  Spot at 1.1222, Sell Stop if Offered at 1.1190

GBPUSD  –  Spot at 1.5329, Sell Stop if Offered at 1.5300

The non farm payroll number came out strong at 280K verusus expectations of 222K.

EUR and GBP crashed.

I squared my positions half an hour later at 1.1100 and 1.5238 for a trading profit of 90bps and 62bps respectively.

Not bad!

29 April @ Advance GDP

The talk about the US is all about economic growth, employment, consumption, so GDP will be a data that will be eagerly looked at and will potentially be volatile.

I decided to do my spread trade going into the announcement: –

 

GBPUSD  –  Stop if Bid at 1.5410, Spot at 1.5380, Stop if Offered at 1.5250. SL at 1.5380 for both trades

EURUSD  –  Stop if Bid at 1.1050, Spot at 1.1026, Stop if Offered at 1.0990.  SL at 1.1026 for both trades

 

The Advance GDP came out very badly into negative territory and the previous month was revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.2%.

The USD got killed, I wished more, but the market move sufficiently.

I squared the EURUSD at 1.1165 for a trading profit of 115 bps

I squared the GBPUSD at 1.5478 for a trading profit of 68bps.

Not bad for a Wednesday night, thank you United States of America.

24 April @ Durable Goods

Crazy Singapore night!

Believing that durable good will be a volatile data, I decided to put a bid and offer spread trade on both the GBP and EUR as follows: –

 

GBPUSD  –  Stop if Bid at 1.5150, Spot at 1.5125, Stop if Offered at 1.5100

EURUSD  –  Stop if Bid at 1.0850, Spot at 1.0830, Stop if Offered at 1.0810

 

Market turned out to be dead boring…………..hardly moved.

I squared the positions 45 mins later flat!

19 March @ FOMC

The much awaited FOMC meeting and statement.

Not knowing where the market would go, but confident that the market swing would be significant, I decided to put spread spot trades on a stop if bid or offered basis.

EURUSD: 1.0690 and 1.0625 with spot at 1.0662

GBPUSD: 1.4760 and 1.4700 with spot at 1.4730

AUDUSD: 0.7690 and 0.7630 with spot at 0.7665

I squared the position just before the press conference; EURUSD at 1.0775, GBPUSD at 1.4848 and AUDUSD at 0.7728.

I locked in 211bps of trading profit…………Yum Yum!  Thank you FOMC….(“,).

18 March @ Long GBPUSD

The past two weeks saw focus by BOE and the media on the strength of employment and job creation in the UK.  Today’s Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate would be in focus.

I decided to do a stop if bid and offered spread.  At about 5:25pm, spot rate was 1.4750 and I placed a LONG stop if bid at 1.4775 and SHORT stop if offered at 1.4720.

The data came out just slightly weaker with unemployment jumping up to 5.7% and claimant count increasing slightly.

Market didn’t like it and sold the GBP down to 1.4620 at about 6:45pm, but I squared the position at 1.4672 at 5:45pm before leaving the office.

Made a tidy trading profit of 48bps.

Yesterday’s action

Yesterday, was an interesting day.

At 1:30pm, weak China data; lower industrial production, poor retail sales and lower fixed investments, didn’t do much to the AUD, as I believe the AUD has already been taken down quite a fair bit.  Nonetheless, just based on flows into the US session, the AUD was about 50bps+ lower to 0.7564.

I must have been something that was said by Draghi at 4pm during his speech, because the EUR tanked from 1.0700 down to 1.0527 during NY midday session.  It has now settled at 1.0509.

I was focusing on the UK and manufacturing and industrial production at 5:30pm yesterday as it was a topic much talked about for the past two weeks leading up to it.  Therefore, I felt that if there is going to be any off data, there will be significant moves on the GBP.

At about 5:20pm when spot was trading at 1.5055, I decided to place a stop if bid/offer spread at 1.5080 and 1.5020.  As it turned out, the data came in very weak, in fact, in negative contraction.  However, the market didn’t really respond to it…………till the NY session.  At NY opening, the GBP was taken down severely.  At about midnight or midday session, the GBP was trading at 1.4937.

At that time, I decided to square off the trade for a trading profit of 83bps.  Not bad.

Yesterday’s trading was a classic case of if the market doesn’t respond during London session, it certainly will respond during the NY session.  As we all know, both the London and NY markets is where the bulk of the flows reside.

I am still interested in what Draghi said, because the EUR really collapsed.  Will find out and comment on it.  Looks like market sentiment, the media and flows are really going to push the EUR towards the parity level?!

12 February 2015 @ UK Inflation Report

The much waited UK inflation report to confirm whether or not BOE will or will not cut rates of hold rates of increase rates.

I really didn’t know whether the market was going to go because the last clue from the BOE was that they will stay put for a while and maybe even consider cutting rates.  However, the media had a different view.  All the media spots were gunning that the BOE would be more hawkish.

Since, this data has been put on the pedestal, I thought I might as well try to see whether I can squeeze a trade out of it or not.

Since, I had no inclination one way or another, I decided to put a straddle spot out of the money trade.

At about 6:20pm, I placed a stop if bid at 1.5250 and stop if offered at 1.5185 when spot was trading at 1.5220.

When the data came out the GBP shot up to 1.5320 within 15 minutes.  My stop if bid order was triggered at 1.5250, I decided to wait till about 9:30pm and squared the position at 1.5353 for a trading profit of 103bps.

Thank you BOE!

6 February @ Non farm payrolls!!!

Market was anticipating the much awaited non farm payroll numbers and the unemployment numbers to confirm that the U.S., is on track in its economic growth recovery.

Wednesday’s ADP number was not encouraging at 213K against forecast of 224k, however, it was mitigated by the upward revision of December’s number from 241K to 253K.  This means that there is a possibility that the non farm payroll numbers could surprise on the upside of forecast.

Market was steady at about 9:10pm Singapore time.  My hunch told me that the non farm payroll numbers would be better, so I decided to bet on my hunch.

Orders: –

1.  GBPUSD – Stop if Offered at 1.5290 when spot was at 1.5323

2. EURUSD – Stop if Bid at 1.1500 when spot was at 1.1486

3. EURUSD – Bought a put option expiring Monday, February 9 with a premium of 36bps, spot at 1.1486 an breakeven at 1.1450

4. USDJPY – Stop if Bid at 117.60 when spot was at 117.28

Of course, all of us knew what happened, the non farm payroll numbers came out at 257K busting forecast of 236K and the highest in the past 6 years.

Market sold off the GBP, EUR and the JPY in a BIG way!

At about 11:15pm, I decided to square off all the trades.

Squared off the GBPUSD at 1.5248 for a trading profit of 42bps.

Squared off the USDJPY at 118.88 for a trading profit of 128bps.

EURUSD stop if bid order was not triggered.

Sold off the put option at 1.1326 for a trading profit of 124bps.

In absolute terms, we made 294bps in totality for all 3 trades.

WHAT A NIGHT!  THANK YOU UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!

13 Aug; 2 week Call Option GBPUSD expiring Aug 29th

After the initial big drop starting at about 6pm Asia time from 1.6830, I decided to do a 2 week call option struck at 1.6735 after almost a 100bps, however, I felt that there was going to be a rebound.

Premum was 56bps and breakeven was 1.6791.

Unfortunately, the GBPUSD continued its slow grind southwards and by the 29th, it was at 1.6585.

So, this call option didn’t work out and we made a loss of 56bps.