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Tag Archives: spot fx

Given that the Federal Reserve is poised at raising interest rates this year as stated by Janet Yellen, clearly, all eyes are on employment data, GDP growth and consumption.

Today’s non farm payroll numbers is strong or weak will be a market mover.  Wednesday’s ADP was an indication though a marginal one.

I decided to place my bets on a strong non farm payroll number and did a stop if offered sell EURUSD and GBPUSD with the following at 8:20pm: –

EURUSD  –  Spot at 1.1222, Sell Stop if Offered at 1.1190

GBPUSD  –  Spot at 1.5329, Sell Stop if Offered at 1.5300

The non farm payroll number came out strong at 280K verusus expectations of 222K.

EUR and GBP crashed.

I squared my positions half an hour later at 1.1100 and 1.5238 for a trading profit of 90bps and 62bps respectively.

Not bad!

This morning I had a strong gut feeling that the RBA would begin to sound more positive and less dovish.

So prior to the RBA announcement and statement at 11:30am Singapore time, the spot was 0.8758 and I placed a spot order to stop if offered at 0.8778.  The order was triggered within 1 minute of the announcement and immediately AUDUSD shot up to 0.8845.  When it started coming off, I decided to sell the spot position at 0.8822 for a trading profit of 44bps.

On September 4th; the 4H chart was illuminating as the spot rate cut above the 200 day moving average of 0.9063.

More importantly, was the fact that the Ichimoku showed a cut up on September 3rd at 0.8986.

So we had the first confirmation from Ichimoku and then the second confirmation from the cut up of the MA, I should have done this analysis back on September 3rd when I did the spot trade and also the 2 day call option.  Had I done a longer dated analysis, I would have paid the higher premium to capture the BIG move.

Looking at the Daily chart the next critical level is 0.9321, if the spot level breaks the Ichimoku cloud on the upper side, then, we have a new bull trend in the AUD.

What’s important now is to learn from hindsight so that going forward we do not lose the potential opportunity if it presents itself again.  Believe you me, the opportunity will come again, this is the wold of FX.

On September 4th, I executed a spot trade by going Short EURUSD at 1.3200 and squared at 1.3170 for a 30bps trading profit.

I executed a Buy on AUDUSD at 0.8985 as I felt that it was basing at that level based on Ichimoku and Stochastics.

Took profit at 0.9035 for a trading profit of 50bps.