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Daily Archives: June 25th, 2013

One hour after Durable Goods Orders………..

One hour after the announcement of better numbers for the US durable goods orders, the current spot rates are as follows: –

EURUSD  1.3109

GBPUSD  1.5444

USDJPY  97.61

AUDUSD  0.9274

 

Basically, except for the EUR which continues to hold a weaker position down by 20bps from the time of announcement, the rest, that is, the GBP and JPY are flat and the AUD is 5bps higher than at 8:30pm.

Seems like the European and US markets are losing confidence in the US Dollar.  However, the Dow Jones is up 96 points this morning in New York.

I believe some calm or rationale has come back to the marketplace for now.

Trade: Two quick trades by shorting the AUDUSD

I was getting bored and so decided to do a quick scalp; decided on the AUDUSD as it technically was looking good.

I Short AUDUSD at 0.9273 and was stopped out at 0.9288 for a trading loss of 15bps.

I saw the opportunity again an hour later and Short AUDUSD again at 0.9276 and this time I squared at 0.9260 for a trading profit of 16bps.

I was one and made on the other, I was all squared; no win, no loss.

I guess we need to keep on trying to sniff out potential trades, we can’t win all the time and we certainly won’t loss all the time either.

Trade: Quick Scalp on the AUDUSD Long at 0.9610 and squared at 0.9620

Was a boring day on June 17th, and though I would toy with the market for a quick scalp.

Stochastics and Ichimoku told me to Long the AUDUSD at 0.9610 and I squared the position at 0.9620 for a 10bps trading profit.

Potential call options discussed on June 14th before Bernanke’s June 20th whack in the head!

I was considering three call options in the AUDUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

In hindsight after the ‘whack’ from Bernanke, it now appears that of the three possibilities, only the USDJPY would have worked out well.

You will remember that the possible call option on the USDJPY was at a strike of 94.90 with a breakeven at 96.99 and a heavy premium of 1.89.  The current spot is at 97.57 and it looks like there is a fair chance that it could go higher by the end of the week, if more positive US data is announced.

Follow up on the thoughts for EUR, JPY and the AUD

The EUR at 1.3090 has broken through the short term channel of 1.3164 and 1.3267.

The JPY at 97.64 is staying within the short term band of 96.21 and 98.25.

The AUD at 0.9260 appears to be quite resilient, staying above the 61.8% retracement level of 0.9230.

The US Durable Goods Orders came in better than forecast and the USD clawed an average of about 30bps from the majors.  I was expecting a bigger move.