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Daily Archives: June 5th, 2013

What do I think of the above data?

I believe the data will disappoint, but it may not have a big impact in the marketplace as the EUR and GBP have already retraced to the 61.8% level.

Upside will be limited, however, if the data comes in strong, then, the downside risk is much higher.

Although, I feel and believe the data will disappoint, however, purely from the risk and reward ratio, if the data surprises on the upside, then, the meltdown in the EUR and GBP will be big.

So, I may put on a contrarian trade and place a sell limit order on the EUR and GBP.  Maybe, instead of placing two orders, just do a cross, that is, EURGBP.

Anyway, we still have another 3 hours before the data is out and more time to access the opportunity.


Following from my thoughts for the GBPUSD earlier, I went ahead to place a buy limit order at 1.5330, SL at 1.5310, while spot was at 1.5302.

UK Services PMI came out very strong at 54.9 versus expectations of 53.1.  Immediately, the GBP spiked up triggering my limit order, I followed the spike till I saw the stochastic peaked and sold at 1.5370, the high was 1.5371, it is now trading at 1.5356.

Locked in a yum yum trading profit of 40bps or 0.26%.

This morning at about 1130am Abe was caught saying to the press that he will SLAY the DEFLATION MONSTER and do everything to implement fiscal and monetary policies to achieve this objective.

I decided to quickly short the USDJPY at 100.24 and when the market responded, I took profit at 99.80, it went to a low of 99.43.  Nonetheless, I made a tidy profit of 44bps or 0.44%.

What do I do???

Looking at the chart it appears that the current spot is at about the 50% retracement level between the high of 1.5581 and the low of 1.5023 established in the month of May.

This means that the GBP can literally swing either way, depending on the PMI data.  I believe the data will outbeat the forecast of 53.1.  The past 3 months has been showing an uptrend and there’s no reason to be otherwise.

gbpusd_hourly chart_may 2013_6 june 2013

Checked the option, to buy a call option till this Friday seems rather expensive at 68bps.  So it looks like I may have to place a limit buy order or maybe, even a spread order, that is to buy and to sell the GBP.