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Daily Archives: September 10th, 2013

On September 4th; the 4H chart was illuminating as the spot rate cut above the 200 day moving average of 0.9063.

More importantly, was the fact that the Ichimoku showed a cut up on September 3rd at 0.8986.

So we had the first confirmation from Ichimoku and then the second confirmation from the cut up of the MA, I should have done this analysis back on September 3rd when I did the spot trade and also the 2 day call option.  Had I done a longer dated analysis, I would have paid the higher premium to capture the BIG move.

Looking at the Daily chart the next critical level is 0.9321, if the spot level breaks the Ichimoku cloud on the upper side, then, we have a new bull trend in the AUD.

What’s important now is to learn from hindsight so that going forward we do not lose the potential opportunity if it presents itself again.  Believe you me, the opportunity will come again, this is the wold of FX.

On September 4th, I executed a spot trade by going Short EURUSD at 1.3200 and squared at 1.3170 for a 30bps trading profit.

On the same day of September 3rd, I bought a call option on the AUDUSD for two days expiring September 5th.  The spot was 0.8982, breakeven was 0.9032 and the premium was 50bps.

On September 4th about 11pm Singapore time or 11am NY time, I decided to sell the option as the spot was at 0.9180, I made a yum yum profit of 148bps or a 2.96X payout, not bad at all.  My initial expectation was between 2X to 2.2X.

I executed a Buy on AUDUSD at 0.8985 as I felt that it was basing at that level based on Ichimoku and Stochastics.

Took profit at 0.9035 for a trading profit of 50bps.

August was a busy month for me as I needed to spend time on another business involved in tocotrienol, so I didn’t really have time to trade, nonetheless, I managed to do three trades through the month and won on all three trades.

Absolute performance for the month was 10.6% and the total absolute performance year to date is now 199.1%.

Next month is going to be a crazy and volatile month with the QE tapering question being answered during the third week of September; is Bernanke going to or not going to initiate the start of the tapering exercise?

Well, let’s see, certainly September is going to be an exciting month and I will make sure I am there to capture opportunities in the marketplace.

July was a mixed month for me as I was not very comfortable with the market, however, as traders we still need to be in the market to stay sharp and to be relevant.

I did 9 spot trades; lost in 1 and won in 8, ROE or absolute performance was 18.5%, adding it onto my year to date total absolute performance of 170%, I am now 188.5% for 2013.