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Monthly Archives: January 2016

As the preliminary GDP for UK is a data that the market is focusing on, I decided to place my straddle at 5:27pm with the following details: –

GBPUSD: –

Sell, Stop if Offered 1.4220, SL 1.4240

Buy Stop if Bid 1.4270, SL 1.4250

Spot: 1.4251

As it turned out, the preliminary GDP came in on the spot at 0.5% in line with forecast.

GBP moved upwards positively but somewhat muted, it triggered my trade at 1.5270 and I squared the trade at 1.4292 for a trading profit of 22bps.

Ok lah……………

Media buzz coming up to the ECB rate decision was somewhat subdued, most of the buzz agreed that Draghi won’t do anything today, after what he did in December 2015.

I wasn’t comfortable with today’s event so I decided not to put on my straddle and instead followed the market.

After the announcement that there was no change in interest rates and repurchase, the EURUSD stayed steady at 1.08990.

Seems that the market was looking forward to the press conference to ascertain how dovish or bullish Draghi was going to come across.

During the first few minutes of the press conference when Draghi was reading from the statement, the EURUSD shot up to 1.0925 when he said that the monetary policy taken in December was correct, more importantly, that it was in response to the economic situation.  He kept talking about comparing the monetary analysis and the economic analysis in deriving the appropriate monetary policy.

Then, when he started to say that the ECB has unlimited policy actions available to act if necessary, the EURUSD began to slide dropping back to 1.0880.

When it started to move down to 1.0850, I decided to chase the market and short the EURUSD at 1.0850.  Draghi further commented in the Q&A, that the ECB will review to reconsider to further easing if necessary and that it has unlimited tools it can use to achieve it’s goal.  The EURUSD continued its slide down to 1.0788.  At about 1.0791, I decided to square off the position and made a tidy trading profit of 59bps.  All this happened within the first 20mins of the press conference.

Ok, now I can peacefully spend Friday with my wife, to shop for the coming Chinese New Year, more importantly, we are indulging in a spa session tomorrow………..bonding time.

If I don’t get to wish everyone, here’s wishing all a great weekend.

The media buzz seems subdued going into the BOE rate decision at 8pm Asia time.

However, I decided to put a Long, Stop if Bid OTM just because……………

At 7:58pm; Spot 1.4388, Long Stop if Bid 1.4420, SL 1.4400

As it turned out, BOE decided not to rock the boat; rate same same at 0.50%, purchase facility at GBP375Mn…….both no change.

Policy statement, tilted slightly to the dovish side.

GBP hardly moved, so I decided to take out the trade.

It’s now 8:45pm and GBPUSD is trading at 1.4392………………..boring!

Looks like no more opportunities for the rest of the week.

I am going to spend Friday with my parents; lunch with my Dad and shopping and tea with my Mum.

Here’s wishing all a good weekend and let’s all get charged up for next week.

Granted that the UK doesn’t have as strong a manufacturing base as compared to the services sector, but it still matters to the economy, BOE and the people.

I was in the midst of a conference when the data came out and my Iphone alarm went off.  I rushed back to my room and saw the terrible negative numbers on the manufacturing and industrial production.

I quickly decided to short the GBPUSD at 1.45 to chase the market.

It’s almost midnight here in Singapore and I just squared my position at 1.4366 for a whopping 134bps.

Thank you GBP!

It’s gotten me to start thinking is the freefall in the GBP starting from London session into NY session a precursor to the BOE on Thursday?

The entire market was looking out for non farm payrolls as an indication that the Fed’s decision was an appropriate one.

Alot of buzz in the media with estimates from 160K to 285K and an extreme one at 100K.

At about 9:22pm, I put in my straddle trade with the following details: –

Short EURUSD   –   Spot 1.0863, Stop if Offered 1.0840 and SL 1.0860

Long GBPUSD   –   Spot 1.4588, Stop if Bid 1.4620 and SL 1.4600

As it turned out, NFP came in a whopping 292K against expectations of 203K.  More importantly, previous month’s 211K was not revised.

This means jobs are well supported in the U.S. even during the lean months of the winter.

My EURUSD was triggered and I withdrew the GBPUSD order.

I squared the EURUSD at 1.0803 for a trading profit of 37bps, was expecting a bigger spike since EUR has been rallying the past two trading days.  Oh well, ok for the first trade in 2016!

Here’s wishing one and all a great trading year in 2016.

I will be wrapping up 2015’s performance shortly and also sharing my thoughts for this year.