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Tag Archives: GDP

GBPUSD in April

The story of Brexit has dominated the GBP pretty much the entire month of April.

It started at about 1.4272 on April 1st, hit a low of 1.4019 on April 6th and 7th and from there it established four highs topping at 1.4632 on April 26th.

1H + Fibo suggest that spot is trading at the 100% level

4H + Fibo suggets that spot is trading at 50% level

Any negative surprise to the GDP data will surely see GBP crashing! Wall Street is expecting a range between 0.4% to 0.5% with general consensus at 0.4%.

Let’s see.  Let’s all be there to capture any potential opportunity if it presents itself.

We did well this morning with the AUD CPI, will out positive momentum continue this afternoon in the UK trading session?!

D-Day; Friday, 26 February; Prelim GDP!

The market was so quiet all week except for Wednesday’s drop in the afternoon or London opening, no significant data or was it because of the fall in the Shanghai equity market?

Anyway, I had a hunch market needed to go back to rational volatility where market responds accordingly to strong or weak data, minus all the noise from politicians and central bankers.

I figured US Prelim GDP was going to be a market mover. So at 9:25pm, I did the following trades: –

EURUSD  –  Call Option expiring 29 February, spot 1.1017, premium 37bps, BE 1.0975.

GBPUSD  –  Stop If Offered; 1.3955, SL 1.3975 with Spot at 1.3984 and Stop if Bid; 1.4015, SL 1.3990

When the Prelim GDP data came out much stronger at 1% q/q versus expectation of 0.4%, the market went wild.

I squared off the GBPUSD at 1.3909 at about 11pm for a trading profit of 66bps.

I squared off the EURUSD this morning Aussie session at 1.0920 for a trading profit of 55bps.

121bps for the one and only trade in February, not bad!

February was truly a frustrating month where irrational volatility dominated the financial markets.  It all started in early February during Chinese New Year celebrations in Asia; oil prices fell again, Shanghai market fell again, negative interest rate announced by BOJ.  Then, later in the month was the UK and fraternizing with Brexit.  Strong US data and USD weakens, weak Euro data and EUR strengthens…………absolutely crazy!

All in all, I put in 5 other trades during the month of February but because the market was irrationally crazy, I pulled out the orders each time I went in.

So I am so happy that I finally have a reprieve on Friday, February 26th to make a killing!!!

 

28 January 2016; UK preliminary GDP

As the preliminary GDP for UK is a data that the market is focusing on, I decided to place my straddle at 5:27pm with the following details: –

GBPUSD: –

Sell, Stop if Offered 1.4220, SL 1.4240

Buy Stop if Bid 1.4270, SL 1.4250

Spot: 1.4251

As it turned out, the preliminary GDP came in on the spot at 0.5% in line with forecast.

GBP moved upwards positively but somewhat muted, it triggered my trade at 1.5270 and I squared the trade at 1.4292 for a trading profit of 22bps.

Ok lah……………

27 Nov; UK est GDP

Was there at the market to potentially capture this opportunity if the data came out much different from forecast.

Place a OTM stop if bid trade with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5056   –   1.5075 with spot at 1.5056 and SL at 1.5065

Data came out as per expectations at 0.5%.

I withdrew the trade……………….so so boring!

UK est GDP; an opportunity?

The GBPUSD is trading at the low range of the 1H price chart.

gbpusd_hourly_fibo

If the estimate GDP comes in better than forecast, then, I am confident that there will be a significant breakout higher.  If poorer, then, it may test 1.5030, the last low during the first week of November.

Let’s see at 5:30pm Asia time?!

 

27 October @ UK Q3 preliminary GDP

Moral of the story is not to trade at 6am in the morning NY time and also when one has not had the chance to check the noise in the media.

I am currently in New York by the invitation of Goldman Sachs for a week.

I knew yesterday there was the UK Q3 GDP number coming out.  However, I didn’t know whether the media has been drumming up the impending event or not.

Nonethless, at about 6am NY time,  I decided to put on my straddle trade with the following details: –

 

GBPUSD   –   1.5320   –   1.5340   –   1.5360

Spot was at 1.5340

As it turned out the GDP number was weak, however ,the market didn’t really move that much.  Well, it did move enough to trigger my bid if offered trade at 1.5320 and then after that, it started moving back up, so before I could be stopped out at 1.5340, I decided to square off the trade at 1.5328 for a 8bps trading loss.

Moral of the story is don’t trade when one has not had the time to catch up with the noise in the media.  I am in NY since Monday and will be returning to Singapore on Saturday.

Later today, will be Janet Yellen’s time, what will she do?

Australia GDP tomorrow at 9:30am Singapore time

Tomorrow’s GDP number will potentially be a market mover for the AUD.

Watch out for it.