Now that the EURUSD has moved significantly lower and I believe there’s probably alittle more room to move downwards, I will hold the spot position.
However, it’s important to manage the risk dynamics, so I am placing a take profit level at 1.3540.
Category Archives: Trades
This afternoon my 15min technicals told me to Short the EURUSD which I did at 1.3598 with a SL at 1.3620.
This week is going to be a very busy week for all of us with critical data coming out in the middle of the week and end of the week. Let’s all make some money this week, shall we?!
I looked at my 15 min techinicals and everything was showing me that I should Long USDJPY which I did at 102.40 with a SL at 102.10.
I did a quick trade last night during NY session; entered Long GBPUSD at 1.6328 and squared the spot position at 1.6369 for a 41bps trading profit.
Cie La Vie………….I knew it was a bet on my part which is why I positioned a smaller nominal size on this option trade.
Well, as it turned out, ‘rumours that ECN may implement negative interest rates’ tanked the Euro by more than 150bps.
The call option expired worthless and I suffered a loss of 28bps.
I had to leave my trading desk this evening, but felt that the EURUSD was going to move up somewhat, based on my technical analysis; Ichimoku and possible better ZEW Economic Sentiment at 6pm (Singapore time).
So at about 5pm, I bought a small position, one day call option on the EURUSD expiring November 20th; Spot: 1.3515, Premium: 28bps and Breakeven: 1.3543.
Unfortunately, the ZEW Economic Sentiment came out lower than forecast at 60.2 versus 63.1, more importantly, is that the German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out flat at forecast of 54.6, so still staying above the 50 threshold level. What is more important is the counterbalancing stronger Germany versus the rest of the weaker Euroland.
EURUSD has stayed in a narrow range since issuance of data between 1.3491 and 1.3519. Let’s see if my trade fairs better tomorrow, we still have time till NY 10am.
I decided to square off this option prior to my leaving for my holiday.
Last Wednesday, the AUDUSD continued to fall and it went under 0.9300, I sold the option at 0.9285, you will recall that my breakeven was 0.9533, so this trade gave us a nice trading profit of 248bps.
So, while I was targeting for a 1.6:1 payout, we were fortunate and managed to secure a payout of over 2.4:1, this was a great trade.
What is ironical about the fx world is when I was away on my holiday, on November 21st and 22nd, the AUD dropped another 100bps to 0.9143………..hahahahahahahaha.
Then again, who can predict that the AUD will collapse again so near the expiry date, I certainly did not. More importantly, I would not carry any open positions when I am away on a holiday.
Wow……….wow…………wow………..the EUR and GBP collapsed!
I squared the two put options; one on the EURUSD and the other on the GBPUSD as follows: –
GBPUSD; BE 1.6107 and sold the option at 1.5966 for a trading profit of 144bps
EURUSD; BE 1.3713 and sold the option at 1.3518 for a trading profit of 196bps
I must confess that was really a lucky trade. I did these two short dated option trades because I was only comfortable to give up so much for the premiums just in case I was totally wrong.
The ADP came out weak, Chicago PMI came out strong, Bernanke was neutral, I also truly couldn’t explain the big drop in the majors except to say that I was lucky.
These two trades were totally predicated on looking at technicals; Ichimoku, Stochastics and Bollinger bands, it all pointed to a oversold USD. More importantly, I was prepared to gamble away the option premiums, however, I reduced my exposure to the premiums by shortening my tenor and also reducing the nominal trade size.
On September 27th, I saw a scalping opportunity in the AUDUSD, so I short the AUDUSD at 0.9358.
However, as I continued to observe the technicals, the push down didn’t seem convincing, so I decided to square the position at 0.9335 for a meager 23bps trading profit.
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