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Tag Archives: spot trade

This morning 9:30am Singapore time was the Aussie CPI quarterly numbers.  This time around, the CPI is important to support what is going on in the economy; rising real estate prices, rising food prices, rising wages.  Forecasters was expecting 0.3% for the quarter.

I decided to place my straddle trade at 9:27am with the following details: –

AUDUSD   –   Stop if Offered; 0.7728, Spot at 0.7758, Stop if Bid; 0.7788 with corresponding SLs at 30bps away

As it turned out the CPI came in NEGATIVE at (0.2)%, it surprised me too!

Immediately the AUD tanked, triggering my Stop if Offered at 0.7728, the initial drop was 88bps down to 0.7670, then, it began to pick up more momentum.  At about 1:42pm the spot level was at 0.7633 and I decided to square the position to lock in my trading profits of 95bps.

It’s 2:40pm Singapore time now, and the spot is at 0.7614.

So the total move from the spot at 0.7758 to now is 144bps!  So you see, a significant data event and one that financial markets has been talking up to create volatility coming into the data, usually will react violently if the data was significantly different from expectations.

This afternoon is UK quarterly GDP, are we going to see any surprises.  Lately, economic data coming out of the UK has been dismal except for the continuing rise in real estate prices.

The 4H + Fibo indicates that the current spot level is at the 50% level.

The 1H + Fibo indicates that the currenct spot level is at the 100% level.

So it looks like any negative surprise to the GDP data could easily cause the GBP to tank?!

Let’s all the be there later.

The UK economy has been wavering back and forth with no strong solid trend.  I felt that today’s UK Services PMI could be a telling sign as to where the economy will be heading and potentially a volatile data event.

So at about 4:25pm, I did a straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Bid: 1.5300

Spot: 1.5263

Stop if Offered: 1.5230

When the data came out at 4:30pm, it was weaker at 55.6 compared to expectations of 57.6, unfortunately, the the GBP didn’t really dip that much, it went to a low of 1.5238 and rebounded.  It didn’t trigger my trade, so I decided to pull the trade out.

It’s now 9:20pm and the GBP is holding at 1.5264.  So in hindsight it was prudent to pull out the trade, as nothing really happened going into early NY session.

I guess the world is more focused on tonight’s ECB and Mario Draghi!!!

This afternoon, the Markit Mfg PMI came out weaker at 55.4 versus forecast of 57.2 and lower than previous month of 57.2.

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What is comforting is that the manufacturing PMI has been posting above 50 levels since this year.  However, I believe the market will still take the lower PMI negatively.

So I decided to do a quick trade by shorting the GBPUSD at 1.6865 and squared at 1.6835 for a trading profit of 30bps or 3%.

 

My stochastics and ichimoku told me to short the GBP which I did at 1.7070 and I subsequently, squared the position half an hour later at 1.7035 for a trading profit of 35bps or 0.35%.

At about 4pm on 11 June, I noticed some activity in the GBPUSD after London opened.  I decided to play my hunch and Long GBPUSD at 1.6785, stop loss at 1.6770.

For the next hour, it didn’t do anything and finally I squared the position at 1.6795 for a trading profit of 20bps prior to leaving the home.

Prior to the announcement of the MPC votes at 4:30pm, GBPUSD started moving from 1.7060 all the way up to 1.79095.

Votes came out as expected and BBA mortgage approvals also came out as forecasted.

GBPUSD began to softened thereafter. I decided to short the GBPUSD at 1.7070 and squared the trade at 1.7035 for a trading profit of 35bps.

Apologies to all for not updating my trading blogsite for the past few months, it has been hectic with family issues. I will endeavor to put in all the past trades and also keep up to date.

I saw and opportunity on February 12th to short the AUDUSD after I saw it fall past 0.90 and so I decided to short it at 0.8966 and shortly thereafter squared at 0.8930 for a trading profit of 36bps.

Last week on December 5th, I saw an opportunity based on my charts; gold appeared to have bottomed at $1,211, though the greater volume of trades was done at about $,1,219.

Recent high on November 29th/30th was about $1,254.

I am not sure whether there is enough momentum to bring it back to the last high, it’s currently trading at $1,244.

Then again, with the budget looming in January and the debt ceiling in March, maybe, it may be worth the while to hold the position.

Hmmmm………I am up $12/-, and to sell an option till January 30th, 2014 at $1,246 will give me premiums of $30/-.  Sounds like a good trade.

Done, just executed selling a call option XAUUSD at $1,246 expiring January 30th, and receiving premiums of $30/-.

I did a quick trade last night during NY session; entered Long GBPUSD at 1.6328 and squared the spot position at 1.6369 for a 41bps trading profit.

I placed as SHORT USDJPY stop if bid at 98.00 when the spot rate was at 98.33.

When the weaker non farm payroll number came out the JPY strengthened to 97.87.  My order was filled at 98.00 and I squared the position at 97.90 for a trading profit of 0.10.