Now that the EURUSD has moved significantly lower and I believe there’s probably alittle more room to move downwards, I will hold the spot position.
However, it’s important to manage the risk dynamics, so I am placing a take profit level at 1.3540.
Tag Archives: eurusd
This afternoon my 15min technicals told me to Short the EURUSD which I did at 1.3598 with a SL at 1.3620.
This week is going to be a very busy week for all of us with critical data coming out in the middle of the week and end of the week. Let’s all make some money this week, shall we?!
Hahahahahahahaha……………..look at what the CNY PMI and the US has done to the AUD. I honestly did not expect the AUD to weaken today the way it did.
You know what? I should have seen this coming if I had the time to look at the charts. Yesterday, the AUD fell by 100bps and this morning when I woke up it was a t 0.9225. Thank you Mario Draghi and the rumours floating about regarding the possibility of negative interest rates.
Well., guess what? Draghi just came out to comment that ‘people should not speculate that the ECB will implement negative interest rates’, the EUIR strengthened about 40bps to 1.3462.
Think about it for a moment, is there really a need for ECB to implement negative interest rates when it has an arsenal of other monetary policies available to implement and let’s not forget also fiscal policies.
Cie La Vie………….I knew it was a bet on my part which is why I positioned a smaller nominal size on this option trade.
Well, as it turned out, ‘rumours that ECN may implement negative interest rates’ tanked the Euro by more than 150bps.
The call option expired worthless and I suffered a loss of 28bps.
I had to leave my trading desk this evening, but felt that the EURUSD was going to move up somewhat, based on my technical analysis; Ichimoku and possible better ZEW Economic Sentiment at 6pm (Singapore time).
So at about 5pm, I bought a small position, one day call option on the EURUSD expiring November 20th; Spot: 1.3515, Premium: 28bps and Breakeven: 1.3543.
Unfortunately, the ZEW Economic Sentiment came out lower than forecast at 60.2 versus 63.1, more importantly, is that the German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out flat at forecast of 54.6, so still staying above the 50 threshold level. What is more important is the counterbalancing stronger Germany versus the rest of the weaker Euroland.
EURUSD has stayed in a narrow range since issuance of data between 1.3491 and 1.3519. Let’s see if my trade fairs better tomorrow, we still have time till NY 10am.
Wow……….wow…………wow………..the EUR and GBP collapsed!
I squared the two put options; one on the EURUSD and the other on the GBPUSD as follows: –
GBPUSD; BE 1.6107 and sold the option at 1.5966 for a trading profit of 144bps
EURUSD; BE 1.3713 and sold the option at 1.3518 for a trading profit of 196bps
I must confess that was really a lucky trade. I did these two short dated option trades because I was only comfortable to give up so much for the premiums just in case I was totally wrong.
The ADP came out weak, Chicago PMI came out strong, Bernanke was neutral, I also truly couldn’t explain the big drop in the majors except to say that I was lucky.
These two trades were totally predicated on looking at technicals; Ichimoku, Stochastics and Bollinger bands, it all pointed to a oversold USD. More importantly, I was prepared to gamble away the option premiums, however, I reduced my exposure to the premiums by shortening my tenor and also reducing the nominal trade size.
I was betting on a poor showing of the non farm payroll and so placed a LONG EURUSD stop if offered at 1.3690 when spot was trading at 1.3675.
When the weaker non farm payroll number came out, the spot shot passed my order and my trade was executed. I then squared my spot position at 1.3734 for a 44 bps trading profit.
In the daily chart, recent highs in the EUR was at 1.3645 in February this year and the lows was in July at 1.27790 and the 200 day moving average at 1.3142.
Bollinger bands are squeezing into a bottleneck…………ready to burst…………and then again………..burst up or burst down??
Looking at the 4H chart, the signs are more compelling that the EUR may be at the start of another down trend, towards the low established in early September of 1.3110.
Could possibly be a good option trade, but I am just not comfortable with the US crisis and the debt ceiling deadline on Thursday. I really don’t want to lose bullets buying options only to give it up because the markets went crazy.
I was watching the fx rates the 15 minutes prior to the 2am FOMC announcement, rates were holding steady in a very tight 5 bps range.
While it is near impossible to guesstimate what Bernanke is going to do, the general consensus in the marketplace is that he will make some ‘light’ tapering so as to follow through with what he has been saying the past two months.
I placed a total of 4 trades: –
AUDUSD – Buy Stop if Offered at 0.9388, spot was 0.9368
EURUSD – Buy Stop if Offered at 1.3395, spot was 1.3372
USDJPY – Sell Stop if Bid at 99.10, spot was 98.85
GBPUSD – Sell Stop if Bid at 1.5950, spot was 1.5971
Then at 2am, Bernanke shocked the financial markets with ZERO tapering! All the majors jumped against the USD, I was triggered on my AUDUSD and EURUSD.
I squared the AUDUSD at 0.9460 and the EURUSD at 1.3455 when I saw that the momentum was flattening out, then again, half an hour later, the majors resumed their torture on the USD. Trading profit on the AUD was 72bps and on the EUR it was 60bps.
Today, Asian afternoon and London morning, AUDUSD is at 0.9507 and EURUSD is at 1.3567. Oh well, one can’t capture the maximum move, I am happy with what I made in 15 minutes last night.
I was out playing golf this morning and got home early afternoon.
The Panthenon Investment Group 