I am just looking at the AUDUSD and it looks so ripe to do a Long Call Option.
The Daily chart and the 4H chart suggests technically that the AUD has turned from the bottom. In fact, it is about to cut up on the 200 day average of 0.7898 in the 4H chart.
Therefore, I am confident to buy a 3 month call option strike at 0.8000 with a premium of 97bps, a breakeven of 0.8097 and expiring on 29 May 2015.
Let’s see what happens.
Market was anticipating the much awaited non farm payroll numbers and the unemployment numbers to confirm that the U.S., is on track in its economic growth recovery.
Wednesday’s ADP number was not encouraging at 213K against forecast of 224k, however, it was mitigated by the upward revision of December’s number from 241K to 253K. This means that there is a possibility that the non farm payroll numbers could surprise on the upside of forecast.
Market was steady at about 9:10pm Singapore time. My hunch told me that the non farm payroll numbers would be better, so I decided to bet on my hunch.
Orders: –
1. GBPUSD – Stop if Offered at 1.5290 when spot was at 1.5323
2. EURUSD – Stop if Bid at 1.1500 when spot was at 1.1486
3. EURUSD – Bought a put option expiring Monday, February 9 with a premium of 36bps, spot at 1.1486 an breakeven at 1.1450
4. USDJPY – Stop if Bid at 117.60 when spot was at 117.28
Of course, all of us knew what happened, the non farm payroll numbers came out at 257K busting forecast of 236K and the highest in the past 6 years.
Market sold off the GBP, EUR and the JPY in a BIG way!
At about 11:15pm, I decided to square off all the trades.
Squared off the GBPUSD at 1.5248 for a trading profit of 42bps.
Squared off the USDJPY at 118.88 for a trading profit of 128bps.
EURUSD stop if bid order was not triggered.
Sold off the put option at 1.1326 for a trading profit of 124bps.
In absolute terms, we made 294bps in totality for all 3 trades.
WHAT A NIGHT! THANK YOU UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!
Ever since RBZ lowered its rates last month, speculation was building in the marketplace about whether the RBA would or wouldn’t lower its interest rates as well?
A week coming up to Ferbruary 3rd saw numerous analysis put out by Bloomberg, Reuters and of course, the banks. Speculation that the RBA wouldn’t lower rates because it is concern about the high property prices and high cost of living.
Guess what?
At 11:30am, the RAB announced a 0.25% rate cut down to 2.25% from 2.50%. Surprise surprise!! Then again, I do not believe it was a surprise, however, none of us have a crystal ball, so he really can’t say for sure what the RBA was going to do.
However, my hunch was that it would cut rates because of mounting pressures. So I placed a stop if offered level at 0.7765 when the spot rate was 0.7805, about 10 minutes before the announcement. I also placed a stop if bid at 0.7835. In addition, since my inclination was rate cut I decided to gamble with buying a put option at 0.7765 for one day with a premium of 35bps, expiring on February 4th 10am NY time.
When the announcement came out, the AUDUSD fell off the side of the cliff falling over 100bps within 5 minutes.
My stop if offered order was activated at 0.7770 and I squared the spot trade at 0.7659 for a trading profit of 106 bps.
I also decided to buy back the option and locked in another 100bps trading profit.
Thank you RBA, I secured a 206bps trading profit within 10 minutes of the announcement.
What a great start to the month of February.
The markets was so volatile, so on Jan 14th at about 9pm, I decided to exit the option at 0.8290 for a trading profit of 105bps (breakeven was 0.8185).
What a great trade for the first trade of the year!
After looking through my technicals, including Ichimoku, MA, Bollinger bands, and stochastics, I decided that there were two potential trades: –
1) Long AUDUSD; stop if offered at 0.9256 (Spot 0.9236) and SL at 0.9230
2) Long Gold, stop if offered at 1,295.00 (spot 1,283) SL at 1,275
By the following morning Singapore time, nothing happened in the AUD, so I took out the order. Guess what, my NY session, the AUD was at 0.9280!
My Gold order was triggered and it was LIVE, I followed the market till the NY session when it reached $1,305 and I decided to take profit at $1,303 for a trading profit of $8.
I felt that the GBPUSD was bottoming, based on Fibonacci; the recent high was 1.6795 and the recent low was 1.6273 with the spot of 1.6560 hovering just above the 50% retracement level. Again coming up from a lower level a few days ago at the near 38% level.
The uptick seemed somewhat convincing and I also felt that the retail sales numbers today would come in better, so I placed a Long GBPUSD, stop if offered at 1.6580 when the spot was at 1.6560 with a SL at 1.6550.
As it turned out the retail sales came in firmer at 1.7% versus expectations of 0.5%, and the GBP firmed up passsed 1.66.
I squared the position at 1.6620 for a trading profit of 40bps.
On March 24th at about 4:45pm, I decided to short the EURUSD at 1.3795 with a SL at 1.3815 with a view that the Euro would weaken based on my techincals.
However, when the US session opened, it appeared that the Euro wasn’t going to soften that much so I decided to square the position at 1.3775 for a small trading profit of 20bps.
Last night at about the same time I placed the AUDUSD order, I also placed a short EURUSD stop if bid order at 1.3920 and SL at 1.3950.
As it turned out this morning, the level was not reached, so I decided to take out the order.
Now during NY trading session, the EURUSD has strengthened unexpectedly despite stronger US data.
I am so glad I took out the order this morning.
Last night, I felt that there was a high probability that the RBNZ will hike rates this morning and if they did, the AUD would strengthened in unison.
So at about midnight, when the AUDUSD spot was at 0.8972, I placed a stop if offered spot order at 0.9000, good till 9am Singapore time the following day.
As it happened, RBNZ hiked rates from 2.50% to 2.75% at 4am Singapore time, my order was triggered early this morning at about 7:55am Singapore time.
I have been holding this spot position all day, wondering whether I should sell a AUD call to set a take profit level since I am already in the money.
I decided a few moments ago to square off the position at 0.9094 for a trading profit of 94 bps.
I saw and opportunity on February 12th to short the AUDUSD after I saw it fall past 0.90 and so I decided to short it at 0.8966 and shortly thereafter squared at 0.8930 for a trading profit of 36bps.
I am born in the Year of the Tiger.
The Panthenon Investment Group 