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Tag Archives: fx

Trade: Long GBPUSD at 1.6580 and squared at 1.6620

I felt that the GBPUSD was bottoming, based on Fibonacci; the recent high was 1.6795 and the recent low was 1.6273 with the spot of 1.6560 hovering just above the 50% retracement level.  Again coming up from a lower level a few days ago at the near 38% level.

The uptick seemed somewhat convincing and I also felt that the retail sales numbers today would come in better, so I placed a Long GBPUSD, stop if offered at 1.6580 when the spot was at 1.6560 with a SL at 1.6550.

As it turned out the retail sales came in firmer at 1.7% versus expectations of 0.5%, and the GBP firmed up passsed 1.66.

I squared the position at 1.6620 for a trading profit of 40bps.

Trade: Short EURUSD at 1.3795 and squared at 1.3775

On March 24th at about 4:45pm, I decided to short the EURUSD at 1.3795 with a SL at 1.3815 with a view that the Euro would weaken based on my techincals.

However, when the US session opened, it appeared that the Euro wasn’t going to soften that much so I decided to square the position at 1.3775 for a small trading profit of 20bps.

Trade: Short, Stop if Bid EURUSD at 1.3920 and SL at 1.3950 yesterday midnight

Last night at about the same time I placed the AUDUSD order, I also placed a short EURUSD stop if bid order at 1.3920 and SL at 1.3950.

As it turned out this morning, the level was not reached, so I decided to take out the order.

Now during NY trading session, the EURUSD has strengthened unexpectedly despite stronger US data.

I am so glad I took out the order this morning.

Trade: Long, Stop if Offered AUDUSD at 0.9000 and SL at 0.8970 yesterday at midnight

Last night, I felt that there was a high probability that the RBNZ will hike rates this morning and if they did, the AUD would strengthened in unison.

So at about midnight, when the AUDUSD spot was at 0.8972, I placed a stop if offered spot order at 0.9000, good till 9am Singapore time the following day.

As it happened, RBNZ hiked rates from 2.50% to 2.75% at 4am Singapore time, my order was triggered early this morning at about 7:55am Singapore time.

I have been holding this spot position all day, wondering whether I should sell a AUD call to set a take profit level since I am already in the money.

I decided a few moments ago to square off the position at 0.9094 for a trading profit of 94 bps.

Trade: Short AUDUSD at 0.8966 and squared at 0.8930 on February 12th

I saw and opportunity on February 12th to short the AUDUSD after I saw it fall past 0.90 and so I decided to short it at 0.8966 and shortly thereafter squared at 0.8930 for a trading profit of 36bps.

Trade: 1 Day AUDUSD Call Option expiring February 5th

After my spot trade earlier in the day, I kicked myself for not keeping the spot position and instead write a call option as AUD continued to strengthen.

I suppose I was pre-occupied by my impending lunch with my father, so decided to just square off the spot trade.

Nonetheless, I saw the opportunity again later in the day, so I decided to buy a call option for one day at the strike of 0.8842 when spot was 0.8822 with a premium of 21bps and breakeven of 0.8863.  At about 2am, the AUDUSD looked alittle peakish…………so I decided to sell the option at 0.8935 for a trading profit of 72bps.

Trade: Stop if Offered AUDUSD at 0.8778

This morning I had a strong gut feeling that the RBA would begin to sound more positive and less dovish.

So prior to the RBA announcement and statement at 11:30am Singapore time, the spot was 0.8758 and I placed a spot order to stop if offered at 0.8778.  The order was triggered within 1 minute of the announcement and immediately AUDUSD shot up to 0.8845.  When it started coming off, I decided to sell the spot position at 0.8822 for a trading profit of 44bps.

Trade Update; Call Option on GBPUSD expiring January 17th

It’s interesting how the forex markets can really give our hearts a good workout!

Gladly, I bought a call option on the GBPUSD and was prepared right at the get-go, to lose the premiums of 46bps.

As you will recall, I did the trade on January 14th; struck at 1.6390 with a breakeven of 1.6436.  After I did the option the GBP started to turn down to 1.6312 on January 16th.

Like all traders, while I was happy to lose the premiums that I paid for the option, the little guy at the back of your head always wishes that the analysis on your trade is correct.

On the fateful day of January 17th, the GBPUSD miraculously moved upwards based on very strong retail sales.  It moved all the way up to 1.6458 during London morning.

My option was due at 10am NY session or 10pm Singapore time.  NY opened with GBPUSD still staying quite firm and my option was eventually closed at 1.6449 for a very tiny profit of 13bps.  I am just happy I didn’t have to forgo my premiums.

The 74K NFP question or mystery?

The non farm payroll number certainly surprised the markets last Friday with a 74K print when the whole world was expecting a 196K estimate.

It gave forex traders the ammunition to beat up the USD and that they did, with all the majors gaining by one big figure.

Then articles started coming out in the press, speculating whether or not this is a simple blip or a precursor to a further weakening in the US labor market.

Personally, I believe the NFP numbers will usually experience anomalies during the winter months, when less people are working and less employers are employing…….all because of the weather. This winter is a harsh one in the U.S., and in Europe, therefore, I expect employment to be weaker in the next two months.

From Monday to Tuesday, the EUR and GBP started correcting and giving up gains from Friday, however, the AUD and JPY continued to grind higher against the USD. The AUD helped by the buoyant housing market, however, the structural economy is still weak. The JPY was alittle puzzling, but maybe, it’s a reversal from the long bull run the USD had against the JPY starting from 101.00 a month ago.

Chinese New Year is on January 31st and I will be busy with family affairs starting next week right up to the first day of Chinese New Year. Admittedly, I haven’t really jumped back on the trading chair since Christmas and I really need to in order to start the new year with a nice foundation.

I will be posting the November and December performance review shortly and an overall experiential feedback of 2013.

Trade: Short AUDUSD at 0.9112, SL at 0.9130 on December 11th @ Wednesday

Just as I did the short trade in the GBPUSD, the AUDUSD also looked good from a charting point of view, so I also executed a short AUDUSD at 0.9112 with a stop loss at 0.9130.

Later on in the night, I squared the position at 0.9028 for a trading profit of 102bps.