I totally missed this………………SHOOT!
Looking at the Daily chart, I noticed that spot crossed the 200DMA on November 4th at 0.7697.
Does it mean that the AUD is heading for a protracted softening?
I have already bought two call options with breakeven averaging 0.7710………about 130 basis points away right now………….hmmmmm……..will I have a chance in the next three weeks for the AUDUSD to recover?
Let’s see.
Spot currently at 112.71.
Looks like my put option expiring tomorrow will expire worthless and will take a hit of 1.03yen, the cost of the option.
Oh well, we win some and we lose some…………that is FX trading………….
The 4H chart seems to indicate a potential triple top; 110.88 – 110.58 and currently 110.50.
I decided to execute a two week put option expiring Friday, Sept 29th with the following details: –
Strike: 110.50
Premium: 1.03
Breakeven: 109.47
Target: 108.20
Let’s see what happens?!
The USDJPY call option expired on July 17th………..worthless.
Premium loss was 0.48yen.
Bought a USDJPY call option expiring on Monday, July 17th with the following details: –
Spot: 113.25, Premium: 0.48, Breakeven: 113.73.
Let’s see what happens?!
On July 3rd when USDJPY crossed 113, I decided to take profit on my 1 month USDJPY call option.
The 1 month call option had an expiry date of July 10 and a BE of 110.52.
I squared the option at 113.20 for a whopping trading profit of 2.68 yen!!!
Now to continue monitoring the outstanding 3 month call option expiring in September which is in the money now.
FOMC is fixated on inflation and jobs creation and early this evening was the US; Retail Sales and CPI, which I felt would be a highly volatile event data.
So at about 8:14pm, I decided to put on my straddle on the EURUSD and USDJPY with the following details: –
EURUSD
Stop if Offered at 1.1170, Spot at 1.1202, Stop if Bid at 1.1230
USDJPY
Stop if Offered 109.90, Spot at 110.28, Stop if Bid at 110.58
SLs all established at 30bps away.
As it turned out CPI and Retail Sales bombed!
Both my EURUSD and USDJPY were triggered.
I followed the market till about 11pm and decided to square off my positions as follows: –
EURUSD squared at 1.1276
USDJPY squared at 108.97
Trading profit; USDJPY = 0.93yen and EURUSD = 46bps
Not bad, if I may say so myself.
On June 8, I decided to buy two USDJPY call options; a 1 month and a 3 month with the following details: –
1 month USDJPY call option expiring 10 July
Spot 109.50, Premium 1.02, B/E 110.52
3 month USDJPY call option expiring 8 Sep
Spot 109.50, Premium 1.68, B/E 111.18
I am confident that USDJPY will resume its march back up to 114.
Let’s see.
After ADP superby performance of 253K versus forecast of 181K, Wall Street and Main Street were anxiously awaiting NFP tonight.
Then again, there were many times when NFP surprised us all with a weaker number.
I decided to play my straddle to capture the market either way: –
Bought a EURUSD Put Option expiring Monday, June 5th; Spot 1.1215 and B/E 1.1189
Bought a USDJPY Put Option expiring Monday, June 5th; Spot 111.59 and B/E 111.26
As it turned out, the NFP number came in considerably weaker at 138K versus forecast of 181K and previous month was also adjusted lower.
The EUR strengthened agaisnt the USD, so my put option was useless.
However, the JPY strengthened against the USD and put my USDJPY put option into the money.
I decided to square the USDJPY put option at 110.57. It was sufficient to offset the cost of both the options and left me with a decent 36 bps trading profit.
Yesterday, thought the NY Empire State Manufacturing PMI would be a volatile event.
So, placed two straddles; one EURUSD and the other USDJPY.
Unfortunately, despite the weak data, EUR and JPY hardly moved. I believed the world is on edge about the tension between North Korea and the USA.
So I withdrew both the straddle trades.
I am born in the Year of the Tiger.
The Panthenon Investment Group 