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Daily Archives: September 3rd, 2015

As expected ECB kept the minimum bid rate the same, maintained the negative deposit rate and repurchases.

As I followed the media and news, coming up to the press conference it appeared that the market was expecting Draghi to be more accommodating and supportive, more importantly, to be more aggressive to easing if necessary.

So I decided just before the press conference when EURUSD was holding at 1.1226 to put in a straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Bid: 1.1250 with SL at 1.1220

Spot: 1.1226

Stop if Offered: 1.1190 with SL at 1.1220

When the press conference started, the EUR started coming off. As Draghi reiterated his position to keep an easy monetary policy, the EUR went further south.

Then, Draghi started talking about potential deflation and weak growth, and expressed concerns about emerging countries.  He is clearly concern about China and let’s hope that G20 can uncover some of the mysteries that is unfolding in China.

At about 8:55pm, the EURUSD had already fallen all the way down to 1.1120, so I decided to take profit on half the position.  Five minutes later, it went down to 1.1110, and I decided to sell the remaining position for an average of 1.1115 or 75bps trading profit with a trading size of $5Bn.  IL Borro, Tuscany for Christmas.

This trade was long in coming and certainly helps to make up for the dull past 3 months, thanks to Greece!

Will we have another fun time come September 17th???!!!

What is BOE going to do next week?

Two more opportunities for this month.

The UK economy has been wavering back and forth with no strong solid trend.  I felt that today’s UK Services PMI could be a telling sign as to where the economy will be heading and potentially a volatile data event.

So at about 4:25pm, I did a straddle trade with the following details: –

Stop if Bid: 1.5300

Spot: 1.5263

Stop if Offered: 1.5230

When the data came out at 4:30pm, it was weaker at 55.6 compared to expectations of 57.6, unfortunately, the the GBP didn’t really dip that much, it went to a low of 1.5238 and rebounded.  It didn’t trigger my trade, so I decided to pull the trade out.

It’s now 9:20pm and the GBP is holding at 1.5264.  So in hindsight it was prudent to pull out the trade, as nothing really happened going into early NY session.

I guess the world is more focused on tonight’s ECB and Mario Draghi!!!

I decided to add on to my position when the AUDUSD came off some more, with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7015

Premium: 288bps

Breakeven: 0.7303

Expiry: 26 August 2016

I am still a strong believer in the Australia economy and the Aussie Dollar.  I believe the economy will turn around next year and that the current levels will be a thing of the past.

I decided to buy a plain vanilla call option, strike ATM spot with the following details: –

Spot 0.7140

Premium: 280

Breakeven: 0.7420

Expiry: 29 July 2016