On September 4th, I executed a spot trade by going Short EURUSD at 1.3200 and squared at 1.3170 for a 30bps trading profit.
Tag Archives: eurusd
The EUR at 1.3090 has broken through the short term channel of 1.3164 and 1.3267.
The JPY at 97.64 is staying within the short term band of 96.21 and 98.25.
The AUD at 0.9260 appears to be quite resilient, staying above the 61.8% retracement level of 0.9230.
The US Durable Goods Orders came in better than forecast and the USD clawed an average of about 30bps from the majors. I was expecting a bigger move.
Currently, EURUSD is trading at 1.3230, based on the daily Fibonacci, is trading above the 50% retracement level of 1.3172 and approaching the 61.8% 1.3284. To give us a view of sensitivity, the high of 1.3644 happened on 1 February 2013 and the low of 1.2701 on 13 November 2012. On a daily basis, the pattern is showing a potential downtrend.
The 4 hour chart shows a high of 1.3408 on 19 June 2013 and a low of 1.2810 on 17 May, this is a 598bps difference which happened in a month. the 76.4% retracement is at 1.3267 and the 50% level at 1.3109. The current spot is below the cloud, however, creating some base with a potential uptrend developing.
The 15 minute chart shows that the EUR is trading in a short term band of 1.3164 and 1.3263, a 99 bps channel. Current spot is staying above the cloud for now.
The Eurozone continues to languish with a mix of both good and bad economic data, the reality is that the various European economies are struggling to create economic growth.
I will be coming up with some opportunistic trading strategies soon, so stay tune.
EURUSD
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The EURUSD is currently trading above the 61.8% level of 1.3321, the 76.4% is at 1.3437 and the 100% is at 1.3640 established on 1 February 2013.
Last night’s high was at 1.3385and the low was at 1.3282.
GBPUSD
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The GBPUSD is presently trading above the 61.8% level of 1.5754 with the 76.4% at 1.5957 and the 100% at 1.686 established on 21 December 2013
Last night’s high was at 1.5723 and the low was at 1.5650.
AUDUSD
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The AUD is a currency that really begs to be thrashed. The current spot is trading below the 0% level of 0.9671, the 23.6% is at 0.9891, 38.2% is at 1.0027 and the 50% at 1.0137. How much will it take to drive the AUDUSD to the 50% level, I don’t think alot. Home loans is down, consumer sentiment is down, however, employment is up and unemployment is down.
Let’s look at this more closely.
My hunch tells me that there is opportunity in the following: –
Call option on the AUDUSD
Call option on the USDJPY
Put option on the GBPUSD
Right now, we need to do a cost benefit analysis to determine which strategy is cost efficient and profit effective.
I bought EURUSD at 1.3250 at about 9:18pm and squared later at 1.3275 for a trading profit of 25bps or 0.188%.
After last night’s spectacular moves by the EUR and GBP averaging more than 190bps, the current spot is at the 50% retracement level. The market can now make very violent swings given the current volatility.
While I am of the opinion that the non farm payroll numbers will probably disappoint given the earlier poor showing of the ADP numbers, we are going into Spring and the start of new job placements. On the off chance, that the non farm payroll numbers coming in stronger than forecast, we should see USD powering back against the EUR and GBP.
Volatility in equities and forex are high right now, and hedging through the options or CFD market is very expensive.
If one is being prudent to potentially capture either the upswing or downswing, buy a call/put spread option would be a safe bet, as one would WIN either way. However, the cost of the spread option till Monday 10 June is a hefty 114bps. So is it worth it? NO.
Which means, one will have to take a gamble on one side. My advice is to place a stop loss as it is our only protection.
I am deciding to stay out of the market today and instead, spend time with my wife going to the spa and a nice dinner.
Here’s wishing all of you a great weekend. Remember, in the forex market there is always another day of opportunity, so if you don’t feel comfortable…….don’t push yourself.
What a surprise, just when I thought I was going to have to write off this option.
I am truly puzzled, Draghi’s speech last night was not encouraging nor negative, no reason for the EUR to surge upwards like a bat out of hell.
The big move happened during lunch time NY session, which hints to me that it was stop losses, options, and program trading that triggered the EUR and moved it upwards.
I have no confidence in the Eurozone and I feel that it has do to more if the Eurozone is to recover from its recession.
Therefore, I have made the decision to sell the option at 1.3260 this morning and locked in profits of 85bps or 0.64%.
I had a hunch the ISM Manufacturing number for the U.S., would come in weaker than expectations.
So, I placed a LONG limit order at 1.2970 with a SL at 1.2950 when the spot was at 1.2962.
When the data came out weaker at 49 versus expectations of 50.6, the EURUSD pushed upwards, triggering out limit order at 1.2970.
We squared the position at 1.3014 for a trading profit of 44bps or 0.33%.
I am done for tonight, back to watching Korean drama and keep my wife company.
Goodnight all, see you tomorrow.
Today was critical day; preliminary GDP and unemployment claims. My hunch told me that the numbers could be weak, so when the EURUSD was trading at about 1.2940 at 8:15am Eastern time, I decided to put in a LONG limit order at 1.2970 with a SL at 1.2950 if things were to go wrong.
When 8:30am rolled around; the GDP came in at 2.4% below forecast of 2.5%, and unemployment claims was higher at 354K versus expectations of 342K.
The EURUSD within 10minutes triggered by limit LONG order at 1.2970 and within the next hour it hit 1.3030 which was my take profit level. We locked in trading profits of 60bps or 0.46%………..great trade! Of course, it went to a high of 1.3060 an hour later, but then again, we can’t always buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
What’s important is to execute a prudent strategy.
Goodnight all, I am going to play golf tomorrow, so no trading for me.
Last Thursday, 23 May 2013, I went LONG EURUSD at 1.2845 immediately after the announcements of the various PMIs for Germany, France and Italy, they were all generally slight improvements.
Initially, market moved slightly, I felt it was good for a 4obps pop upwards, then, it started moving up to 1.2900, I put an order to square the position at 1.2900 and it was taken out as it went higher to 1.2908. I locked in a trading profit of 55bps or 0.42%.
It went higher into NY trading session but I was at the time out for dinner.
The Panthenon Investment Group 