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Category Archives: Trades

These is where we share with you the trades that we have executed. We also track our trades for overall profit/loss reconciliation.

4 Dec; NFP

The non farm payrolls is one of the important numbers the FOMC will be looking at for the potential rate hike two weeks from now.

I decided to place my straddle at 9:28pm with the following details: –

Sell EURUSD, Stop if Offered:  1.0880

Spot: 1.0900

SL: 1.0900

As it turned out, NFP came in higher at 211 versus forecast of 201, more importantly, last month’s number was adjusted upwards from 271K to 298K.

Unfortunately, the EUR whipsawed, my trade was triggered at 1.0877 and it was squared at 1.0907 for a trading loss of 30bps.

You can’t win all the time.

EURUSD is now hovering at 1.0877 @ 9:45pm.

Ok going to shut down for the week.  Here’s wishing all a great weekend.

3 Dec; ECB Rate Decision…………..what a whipsaw!!!

I suppose the whole world was looking out for this event today, wondering what Mario Draghi will do.  We all know that he will continue to ease but the real question is whether or not the easing will be aggressive or not?

At about 8:33pm, I put in my trade with the following details: –

Spot: 1.0550

Buy EUR, Stop if Bid: 1.0570

Sell EUR, Stop if Offered: 1.0530

SL: 1.0550

At 8:40pm, Financial Times leaked that there was no change in decision, the EUR spiked up, triggering my 1.0570 level, I followed it till 1.0640 and squared the position right after the media confirmed that FT made and error.  I locked in a 70bps trading profit.

I decided to put in another trade with the following details: –

Spot: 1.0600

Buy EUR, Stop if Bid: 1.0630

Sell EUR, Stop if Offered: 1.0570

SL: 1.0600

At 8:45pm, it was announced that ECB cut deposit rate to -0.3% (previously, -0.2%), market took it as a ‘whimpy’ move by Draghi and instead of the EUR falling it spiked up again.  This time driving higher than the last level a few minutes ago.

It triggered by 1.0630 level and I followed it till it hit 1.0690 and I squared the position for a trading profit of 60bps.

In totality, 130bps trading profit thanks to Draghi.

As I was not really comfortable with the event because I felt that there could be some irrational whipsaw volatility, I decided to cut down my trade size and did only US$1Bn, much lower than our normal size.  Then again, risk management is also in managing the size of your trade.

I am not going to wait around for the press conference. Almost had a heart attack earlier.

Guess what?  The EURUSD is now 1.0800, 10 minutes into the press conference.  Did I want to risk the gains in my earlier trade? No, decisions we have to make each time given the situation at the time.  Easy to say in hindsight, but when one is in the hot seat at the time, what will we decide to square the position or keep it open?

A new trading strategy; hopefully it will prove to be consistent…………..

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Given the rather disappointing straddle trades of late, I have been experimenting with some charting strategies to see whether or not it could develop into something more consistent and permanent.

Please look at the 15 minute GBPUSD price chart overlayed with Ichimoku and 50SMA.

gbpusd_15m

I decided to try out a simple strategy of looking at the Ichimoku together with the 50 day SMA.

I realised that every time the 50SMA cut from below or from above, the GBPUSD will either strengthen or weaken correspondingly.

So I decided to try out this strategy, so last night at about 10:22pm, at the level of 1.5030, I decided to LONG the GBPUSD at this level with a SL of 1.5o00.

This afternoon at about 4:55pm, I decided to square the position at 1.5112 for a trading profit of 82bps.

Not bad!!!!!!!

Will continue to monitor this strategy and see whether there is some consistency in it or not.

By the way, any of you haven’t yet asked me what are my settings for my Ichimoku?

Good trading………………

Remember our AUDUSD Call Option?

If you recall, I executed an AUDUSD call option on July 8th expiring Nov 27th with the following details: –

Spot: 0.7390

Strike: ATM

Premium: 200bps

Breakeven: 0.7590

The high on November 27th was 0.7234.

Oh well, you can’t win them all.  I still have two other AUDUSD call option expiring in July and August 2016.

27 Nov; UK est GDP

Was there at the market to potentially capture this opportunity if the data came out much different from forecast.

Place a OTM stop if bid trade with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5056   –   1.5075 with spot at 1.5056 and SL at 1.5065

Data came out as per expectations at 0.5%.

I withdrew the trade……………….so so boring!

19 Nov; Unemployment Claims?!

Unemployment Claims is clearly a data that is on the radar screen of the Fed.  So, it impossible not to be read to pounce on an opportunity if it happens.

So at about 9:27pm, I decided to put in a straddle trade with the following details: –

EURUSD   –   1.0651   –   1.0677   –   1.0697

GBPUSD   –   1.5245   –   1.5265   –   1.5285

Unemployment claims came out FLAT at 271K versus expectations of 272K.

I withdrew the trade 1o minutes after the announcement as rates were not going anywhere.

17 Nov @ The FOMC Minutes!

Since the October FOMC rate decision did not come with a press conference, the entire financial markets was looking towards the minutes to garner an idea of what happened in the closed door meeting among the Fed governors and Yellen.

There was a fair amount of noise in the media though, it seemed somewhat muted.

In any case, I stayed up and at 2:55am, I placed the following trades: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5197   –   1.5217   –   1.5237

EURUSD   –   1.0618   –   1.0638   –   1.0658

USDJPY   –   123.27   –   123.47   –   123.67

As it turned out, the minutes lacked luster, rates did not move anywhere.

10 minutes after 3am, I decided to withdraw the three straddle trades.

What a disappointment!!!

 

UK est GDP; an opportunity?

The GBPUSD is trading at the low range of the 1H price chart.

gbpusd_hourly_fibo

If the estimate GDP comes in better than forecast, then, I am confident that there will be a significant breakout higher.  If poorer, then, it may test 1.5030, the last low during the first week of November.

Let’s see at 5:30pm Asia time?!

 

17 Nov @ ZEW Sentiment

6pm was ZEW sentiment for the German area and the Euro area.  This is an important data to ascertain how businesses and people are feeling about the economic situation in their homeland.

At 5:55pm, I placed my straddle trade with the following details: –

EURUSD   –   1.0645   –   1.0665   –   1.0685   –   Spot at 1.0665, and SLs at spot

As it turned out, German ZEW was stronger however, it was mitigated by a weaker Euro area ZEW.

The euro hardly moved, so I decided to withdraw the trade.

12 Nov @ US Unemployment Claims

A potential data that could be volatile though noise in the media was somewhat muted.

Everyone seems to be looking forward to Yellen speech at 10:3opm at the Conference of Monetary Policy, Washington DC.

I decided to put on my straddle at 9:28pm with the following details: –

EURUSD   1.0704   –   1.0724   –   1.0744 with spot at 1.0724 and SLs at spot

As it turned out unemployment claims came in about par at 276K versus expectations of 270K.

EUR moved slightly by about 15bps and flatline, so I decided to withdraw the trade.