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Tag Archives: audusd

Trade: Stop if Offered AUDUSD at 0.8778

This morning I had a strong gut feeling that the RBA would begin to sound more positive and less dovish.

So prior to the RBA announcement and statement at 11:30am Singapore time, the spot was 0.8758 and I placed a spot order to stop if offered at 0.8778.  The order was triggered within 1 minute of the announcement and immediately AUDUSD shot up to 0.8845.  When it started coming off, I decided to sell the spot position at 0.8822 for a trading profit of 44bps.

Trade: Short AUDUSD at 0.9112, SL at 0.9130 on December 11th @ Wednesday

Just as I did the short trade in the GBPUSD, the AUDUSD also looked good from a charting point of view, so I also executed a short AUDUSD at 0.9112 with a stop loss at 0.9130.

Later on in the night, I squared the position at 0.9028 for a trading profit of 102bps.

AUDUSD Put Option

Hahahahahahahaha……………..look at what the CNY PMI and the US has done to the AUD.  I honestly did not expect the AUD to weaken today the way it did.

You know what?  I should have seen this coming if I had the time to look at the charts.  Yesterday, the AUD fell by 100bps and this morning when I woke up it was a t 0.9225.  Thank you Mario Draghi and the rumours floating about regarding the possibility of negative interest rates.

Well., guess what?  Draghi just came out to comment that ‘people should not speculate that the ECB will implement negative interest rates’, the EUIR strengthened about 40bps to 1.3462.

Think about it for a moment, is there really a need for ECB to implement negative interest rates when it has an arsenal of other monetary policies available to implement and let’s not forget also fiscal policies.

Trade Update: AUDUSD Put Option expiring 22 November 2013

I decided to square off this option prior to my leaving for my holiday.

Last Wednesday, the AUDUSD continued to fall and it went under 0.9300, I sold the option at 0.9285, you will recall that my breakeven was 0.9533, so this trade gave us a nice trading profit of 248bps.

So, while I was targeting for a 1.6:1 payout, we were fortunate and managed to secure a payout of over 2.4:1, this was a great trade.

What is ironical about the fx world is when I was away on my holiday, on November 21st and 22nd, the AUD dropped another 100bps to 0.9143………..hahahahahahahaha.

Then again, who can predict that the AUD will collapse again so near the expiry date, I certainly did not.  More importantly, I would not carry any open positions when I am away on a holiday.

Trade: 27 September @ Short AUDUSD at 0.9358

On September 27th, I saw a scalping opportunity in the AUDUSD, so I short the AUDUSD at 0.9358.

However, as I continued to observe the technicals, the push down didn’t seem convincing, so I decided to square the position at 0.9335 for a meager 23bps trading profit.

Trade: Bought a 1 month AUDUSD Put Option expiring 22 November 2013

I looked at the AUDUSD, felt that it is too strong given, the weak economy, structural weakness, impending inflation and poor job numbers.

I decided to BUY a 1 month Put Option on the AUDUSD, strike at the money spot of 0.9640, expiring 22 November 2013, premium of 107bps and breakeven of 0.9533.

I am looking at a 1:1 payout at 0.9425 and a possible 2.24:1 payout at 0.9293.  Let’s not forget that it was barely three weeks ago that the AUD was at 0.9280.  I believe the likely outcome would be about 1.6:1.  We’ll see.

Trade Update: I month Put Option on the AUDUSD expiring 18 Oct 2013

On September 30th, I saw AUDUSD coming down to 93.00 and at the same time I felt that the floor was reached even though it pushed down to 0.9290.

I decided to sell the option and locked in the trading profits of 100bps.  Remember our entry point was 0.9500 and our option cost was 100bps which put our breakeven at 0.9400.  Essentially, it was a 1:1 payoff, though my preliminary calculations, I was betting on a 2:1 payoff, however, AUD all of a sudden became the safe haven currency because of the partial US government shutdown and also the overhanging debt ceiling deadline on October 17th.

At the same period, the EUR and GBP was rallying against the USD, which doesn’t bode well for the other put option I did on the GBPUSD.  I will give and update shortly.

Trade: 1 month Put Option AUDUSD expiring 18 October 2013

Again, I felt that the strength in the AUD was unwarranted given the state of its economy compared to the US.  However, I also respect that the AUD is a safe haven currency and also because of the positive carry trade.

However, when the Ichimoku; Tenkan cut down on the Kinjun from the top at 0.9500, I decided to Buy a Put Option for 1 month at the money spot, breakeven at 0.9400 and a premium of 100bps.

Trades done just prior to FOMC

I was watching the fx rates the 15 minutes prior to the 2am FOMC announcement, rates were holding steady in a very tight 5 bps range.

While it is near impossible to guesstimate what Bernanke is going to do, the general consensus in the marketplace is that he will make some ‘light’ tapering so as to follow through with what he has been saying the past two months.

I placed a total of 4 trades: –

AUDUSD  –  Buy Stop if Offered at 0.9388, spot was 0.9368

EURUSD  –  Buy Stop if Offered at 1.3395, spot was 1.3372

USDJPY  –  Sell Stop if Bid at 99.10, spot was 98.85

GBPUSD  –  Sell Stop if Bid at 1.5950, spot was 1.5971

Then at 2am, Bernanke shocked the financial markets with ZERO tapering!  All the majors jumped against the USD, I was triggered on my AUDUSD and EURUSD.

I squared the AUDUSD at 0.9460 and the EURUSD at 1.3455 when I saw that the momentum was flattening out, then again, half an hour later, the majors resumed their torture on the USD.  Trading profit on the AUD was 72bps and on the EUR it was 60bps.

Today, Asian afternoon and London morning, AUDUSD is at 0.9507 and EURUSD is at 1.3567.  Oh well, one can’t capture the maximum move, I am happy with what I made in 15 minutes last night.

I was out playing golf this morning and got home early afternoon.

Hindsight Analysis on the AUDUSD

On September 4th; the 4H chart was illuminating as the spot rate cut above the 200 day moving average of 0.9063.

More importantly, was the fact that the Ichimoku showed a cut up on September 3rd at 0.8986.

So we had the first confirmation from Ichimoku and then the second confirmation from the cut up of the MA, I should have done this analysis back on September 3rd when I did the spot trade and also the 2 day call option.  Had I done a longer dated analysis, I would have paid the higher premium to capture the BIG move.

Looking at the Daily chart the next critical level is 0.9321, if the spot level breaks the Ichimoku cloud on the upper side, then, we have a new bull trend in the AUD.

What’s important now is to learn from hindsight so that going forward we do not lose the potential opportunity if it presents itself again.  Believe you me, the opportunity will come again, this is the wold of FX.