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Tag Archives: gbpusd

12 Jan @ UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production

Granted that the UK doesn’t have as strong a manufacturing base as compared to the services sector, but it still matters to the economy, BOE and the people.

I was in the midst of a conference when the data came out and my Iphone alarm went off.  I rushed back to my room and saw the terrible negative numbers on the manufacturing and industrial production.

I quickly decided to short the GBPUSD at 1.45 to chase the market.

It’s almost midnight here in Singapore and I just squared my position at 1.4366 for a whopping 134bps.

Thank you GBP!

It’s gotten me to start thinking is the freefall in the GBP starting from London session into NY session a precursor to the BOE on Thursday?

January 8th @ NFP!

The entire market was looking out for non farm payrolls as an indication that the Fed’s decision was an appropriate one.

Alot of buzz in the media with estimates from 160K to 285K and an extreme one at 100K.

At about 9:22pm, I put in my straddle trade with the following details: –

Short EURUSD   –   Spot 1.0863, Stop if Offered 1.0840 and SL 1.0860

Long GBPUSD   –   Spot 1.4588, Stop if Bid 1.4620 and SL 1.4600

As it turned out, NFP came in a whopping 292K against expectations of 203K.  More importantly, previous month’s 211K was not revised.

This means jobs are well supported in the U.S. even during the lean months of the winter.

My EURUSD was triggered and I withdrew the GBPUSD order.

I squared the EURUSD at 1.0803 for a trading profit of 37bps, was expecting a bigger spike since EUR has been rallying the past two trading days.  Oh well, ok for the first trade in 2016!

Here’s wishing one and all a great trading year in 2016.

I will be wrapping up 2015’s performance shortly and also sharing my thoughts for this year.

A new trading strategy; hopefully it will prove to be consistent…………..

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Given the rather disappointing straddle trades of late, I have been experimenting with some charting strategies to see whether or not it could develop into something more consistent and permanent.

Please look at the 15 minute GBPUSD price chart overlayed with Ichimoku and 50SMA.

gbpusd_15m

I decided to try out a simple strategy of looking at the Ichimoku together with the 50 day SMA.

I realised that every time the 50SMA cut from below or from above, the GBPUSD will either strengthen or weaken correspondingly.

So I decided to try out this strategy, so last night at about 10:22pm, at the level of 1.5030, I decided to LONG the GBPUSD at this level with a SL of 1.5o00.

This afternoon at about 4:55pm, I decided to square the position at 1.5112 for a trading profit of 82bps.

Not bad!!!!!!!

Will continue to monitor this strategy and see whether there is some consistency in it or not.

By the way, any of you haven’t yet asked me what are my settings for my Ichimoku?

Good trading………………

27 Nov; UK est GDP

Was there at the market to potentially capture this opportunity if the data came out much different from forecast.

Place a OTM stop if bid trade with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5056   –   1.5075 with spot at 1.5056 and SL at 1.5065

Data came out as per expectations at 0.5%.

I withdrew the trade……………….so so boring!

19 Nov; Unemployment Claims?!

Unemployment Claims is clearly a data that is on the radar screen of the Fed.  So, it impossible not to be read to pounce on an opportunity if it happens.

So at about 9:27pm, I decided to put in a straddle trade with the following details: –

EURUSD   –   1.0651   –   1.0677   –   1.0697

GBPUSD   –   1.5245   –   1.5265   –   1.5285

Unemployment claims came out FLAT at 271K versus expectations of 272K.

I withdrew the trade 1o minutes after the announcement as rates were not going anywhere.

17 Nov @ The FOMC Minutes!

Since the October FOMC rate decision did not come with a press conference, the entire financial markets was looking towards the minutes to garner an idea of what happened in the closed door meeting among the Fed governors and Yellen.

There was a fair amount of noise in the media though, it seemed somewhat muted.

In any case, I stayed up and at 2:55am, I placed the following trades: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5197   –   1.5217   –   1.5237

EURUSD   –   1.0618   –   1.0638   –   1.0658

USDJPY   –   123.27   –   123.47   –   123.67

As it turned out, the minutes lacked luster, rates did not move anywhere.

10 minutes after 3am, I decided to withdraw the three straddle trades.

What a disappointment!!!

 

UK est GDP; an opportunity?

The GBPUSD is trading at the low range of the 1H price chart.

gbpusd_hourly_fibo

If the estimate GDP comes in better than forecast, then, I am confident that there will be a significant breakout higher.  If poorer, then, it may test 1.5030, the last low during the first week of November.

Let’s see at 5:30pm Asia time?!

 

17 Nov @ UK; CPI, PPI, RPI

As the UK is also squarely looking at recovery and growth, data such as CPI, PPI and RPI becomes relevant on the radar screen.  CPI, PPI and RPI was schedule at 5:30pm Asia time.

I didn’t observe that much noise in the media but since it is a relevant data, I decided to place my straddle trade at 5:24pm with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5147   –   1.5167   –   1.5187

Spot was at 1.5167 and SLs at spot, Stop if Bid at 1.5187 and Stop if Offered at 1.5147

As it turned out CPI moved up slightly and market didn’t seem interested so at 6:18pm, I decided to square the position at 1.5210 for a trading profit of 23bps.

5 November @ BOE Rate Decision

Ok another central bank’s turn to create volatility in the marketplace.  BOE this week was squarely in the middle of the radar screen and of course, we should try and capture the volatility if it happens.

At about 7:54pm, I decided to place my straddle trade with the following details: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5365   –   1.5385   –   1.5405  with spot at 1.5385 and stop losses at 1.5385

When decision came out to hold and inflation targets to be adjusted, the GBP collapsed to 1.5270, triggering my stop if offered at 1.5365.

I decided to hold the position till after the start of the press conference.  Initially at the start of the press conference the GBP began climbing back up to 1.53295 and I thought maybe, I should square of the trade now and preserve my profits.

Then, with more comments from Carney talking about the fact that raising interest rates will be much further out in the horizon, the GBP went south again, and I decided to square off the trade at 1.5255.

Trading profits is 110bps……….RIGHT ON CARNEY!

Now to look forward to US unemployment claims in the next few minutes.

29 October @ FOMC but no press conference

The amount of noise coming into the last hour before FOMC gave me cause to put in a trade.

At about 1:55am, I put in the following straddles: –

GBPUSD   –   1.5300   –   1.5321   –   1.5340  Spot was at 1.5321 and SL at spot level

EURUSD   –   1.1050   –   1.1073   –   1.1095  Spot was at 1.1073 and SL at spot level

At 2am, it was announced; Fed kept rates on hold but media is picking up the fact that the statement dropped the phrase, “global developments may restrain growth”.

We squared the trade at 2:11am at the following levels: –

GBPUSD, squared at 1.5260 for a trading profit of 40bps

EURUSD, squared at 1.10935 for a trading profit of 115bps

Thank you NEWS MEDIA; CNN, CNBC, WALL STREET, BLOOMBERG………..all of you were great!

It’s a wrap, time for drinks!